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a "number two" with significant character flaws

on september 5, local time, the ukrainian parliament formally approved the appointment of eight new ministers, marking the completion of this round of personnel adjustments by the zelensky government. this is also the largest personnel reshuffle carried out by the ukrainian government since february 2022.

although zelensky tried to explain the personnel changes as a normal rotation, afp, politico and other european and american media quoted sources from within the ukrainian government as saying that this was an attempt by yermak, director of the presidential office, to further centralize power, and that foreign minister kuleba was forced to resign due to pressure from yermak.

the comments of the ukrainian media were even more intense. the editor-in-chief of the kyiv post, nahaylo, wrote a commentary, calling kuleba's resignation a "humiliating ouster": "i know that ukraine is in the midst of a war and its leader and his closest aide (yermak) need to be respected, but this does not mean that the most basic principles of democracy, openness and accountability can be flouted."

producers drive away career diplomats

dmytro kuleba, 44, is the youngest foreign minister in ukrainian history and also served as foreign minister during the most difficult period since ukraine's independence. recently, he experienced a unique "resignation storm".

on the one hand, he has been widely praised by western allies. us secretary of state blinken called him to express "great appreciation and friendship". german foreign minister berbock said that few people "worked so closely with me" like kuleba. agence france-presse quoted experts as saying that he "is not corrupt and behaves like a typical western politician."

on the other hand, zelensky's inner circle remained silent about kuleba's departure. when questioned by the american media politico, "zelensky's officials and advisers" even said that kuleba "despite being well-known around the world, has done little to advance relations between kiev and washington over the past year."

"have we heard the president and his entourage say anything thankful to kuleba?" the kyiv post asked in an editorial, arguing that this was the reason why kuleba did not follow political conventions to go to parliament to submit his final report and witness the resignation vote. the presidential office may also further humiliate kuleba when deciding his next position, including sending him out of the center of power to serve as ukraine's envoy to nato or the european union.

until his resignation, kuleba, who came from a family of diplomats, was known for his integrity, efficiency, pragmatism, and solid theoretical foundation. he returned to the ministry of foreign affairs after the crimean crisis broke out in 2014, and introduced new concepts of strategic dialogue, digital diplomacy, and public diplomacy to this department with an outdated working model, reshaped ukraine's image in the minds of its european and american allies, and established a foundation of trust with the policy circles of these countries.

in january 2024, yermak (first from right) and kuleba (second from right) met with the hungarian foreign minister. photo/ukrainian presidential office website

a senior ukrainian foreign ministry official disclosed to china newsweek that on february 21, 2022, immediately after russia announced its "recognition" of the donetsk and luhansk regimes as "states," the foreign ministry's legal team, led by kuleba, decided to file a lawsuit in the international court of justice. on february 26, ukraine formally submitted the situation to the international court of justice, and within a month, the court issued a temporary measure of "requesting a ceasefire," maximizing the effectiveness of the "legal war." in addition, kuleba also proposed a new view in international law that "the conditions for peace are defined by the invaded country," which was repeatedly used in ceasefire negotiations and peace summits.

after the war entered a stalemate, kuleba sought international support in a pragmatic way. he made a historic visit to india, an important economic partner of russia, and facilitated the visit of indian leaders to kiev. he generously praised the ideological legacy of former us secretary of state henry kissinger, although the latter advocated a "more realistic ceasefire between russia and ukraine" before his death. in contrast, zelensky's chief of staff, yermak, even emphasized the "huge controversy" surrounding kissinger during his condolences.

the conflict between kuleba and yermak had already erupted before the war began. a senior ukrainian government official told the american media politico: "everyone knows that they have a conflict. i even witnessed it once."

in may 2019, yermak, a producer and former lawyer with no diplomatic experience, was appointed by the newly elected president zelensky as assistant to the president for foreign policy affairs. this was his first government position. later, he became the protagonist of the "ukraine phone gate" that detonated the us election: he contacted trump's representative giuliani on behalf of zelensky and promised the other party that the ukrainian government would investigate hunter biden's economic problems in ukraine. this diplomatic turmoil that almost got out of control did not affect yermak's continued service as director of the presidential office.

after february 2022, yermak set up several groups in the presidential office to deal with sanctions against russia, international security guarantees, peace summits, negotiations with the united states and other matters. politico revealed that in the past year, the communication between zelensky and washington has been "mainly handled by the presidential office, specifically by yermak." according to afp, at the same time, kuleba has been criticized for the "operating methods" of his ministry of foreign affairs and has been marginalized in decision-making.

in april this year, andrei sibiha, deputy director of the presidential office, was transferred to the position of deputy foreign minister, which was seen as a step for yermak to completely control the ministry of foreign affairs. at that time, a senior government official told the kyiv independent that it was "only a matter of time" for sibiha to replace kuleba. now, sibiha has indeed become the new foreign minister.

ukrainian political observer mykola davidik told the kyiv independent that sibiha "cannot be better than kuleba". this is a euphemism. more critics believe that the professional level of ukrainian diplomatic work has plummeted after kuleba gradually lost control of the ministry of foreign affairs.

a typical example is that after the humanitarian crisis in gaza escalated in october 2023, zelensky and yermak quickly chose to "side with" israel, which immediately lost the hearts of the "global south". until june this year, zelensky restored some international reputation before the peace summit by clearly supporting palestine, but this is still a major reason why many "global south" countries lowered the level of their representatives at the summit.

it is not clear what role kuleba played in ukraine's recent series of serious diplomatic mistakes, but it is certain that kuleba is no longer considered a member of the kiev command because of the increasing disputes with yermak. "even if kuleba is 300% loyal, the presidential office cannot hand over diplomatic channels to someone they are not sure is in their camp." a senior ukrainian government official told politico.

in february 2024, yermak chaired a meeting of ukrainian ambassadors abroad to discuss the peace summit. the man in green is yermak, and kuleba sits next to him. photo/ukrainian presidential office website

the flaws of a tough guy

this is not the first time that kuleba’s plot has occurred in the decision-making circles of kiev. in february this year, yermak was believed to have led the resignation of zaluzhny, the widely praised commander-in-chief of the ukrainian army. in may, kubrakov, the deputy prime minister in charge of reconstruction affairs, was dismissed, which aroused widespread doubts from western public opinion.

josh rudolph, a former u.s. government official and senior fellow at the german marshall fund, pointed out that in order to obtain hundreds of billions of dollars in reconstruction support, kubrakov established a "transparency team" in the corrupt ukrainian government that was trusted by western allies, "but yermak believed that the 'transparency team' had become a power center that he could not fully control." as a result, kubrakov was eliminated and the department he was originally in charge of was split up to avoid the emergence of a leadership group that could share power with the presidential office.

ironically, after questioning the ukrainian government's personnel changes, western commentators put forward kuleba as the first candidate to replace kubrakov. however, this high recognition of kuleba may have accelerated his downfall.

in addition to replacing kuleba with sibiha, the ukrainian government also adjusted the personnel arrangements of seven ministerial positions. the main changes were to transfer some tested ministers to the presidential office to continue to be in charge of their areas, while "sending" several senior officials from the presidential office to serve as ministers.

minister of strategic industries kamisin was transferred to the presidential office to be in charge of weapons and infrastructure; deputy prime minister vereshchuk, who was in charge of occupied territories affairs, was also transferred to the position of deputy director of the presidential office and continued to be in charge of occupied territories affairs, and the government department she was originally in charge of will be reorganized.

oleksiy kuleba, deputy director of the presidential office, was appointed deputy prime minister to officially take over the reconstruction and recovery work left after kubrakov resigned in may this year. another deputy director of the presidential office, tochitsky, was transferred to the position of minister of culture and information, and his main task was reportedly to be "combating false information."

zheleznyak, a member of the liberal party of the ukrainian parliament, concluded to the kyiv independent that it does not matter who replaces whom, the only change is that "more people will be loyal to yermak." honcharenko, a member of the european solidarity party, said that the government is now just "a department of the presidential office."

zelensky and yermak's supporters argue that any move to strengthen the centralization of power during a war is beyond reproach. "we must listen to the president and let him decide who he is more comfortable working with," said merezhko, a member of the ruling servant of the people party and chairman of the parliamentary foreign relations committee.

at least so far, the person zelensky feels most comfortable working with is yermak. former us ambassador to ukraine taylor said zelensky "relies heavily" on yermak. they met as early as 2010, when zelensky was a ukrainian comedy star and yermak was his lawyer.

in july 2024, kuleba (second from left) and yermak (fourth from left) accompanied the mourning of ukrainian soldiers who died in odessa. photo/ukrainian presidential office website

like kuleba, yermak, 54, also comes from a family of diplomats. his father worked as a diplomat in the soviet embassy in afghanistan during the soviet invasion of afghanistan, and he himself graduated from the kiev institute of international relations. this may explain why yermak is so concerned about seizing the power of foreign policy.

in the presidential palace in downtown kiev today, zelensky's office is on the fourth floor, while yermak works on the second floor. the entire presidential office has about 50 officials, including 6 deputy directors, 1 chief of staff and 1 press secretary. yermak is always the most diligent one. even his critics admit that he has a rare "all-weather work ability". he has no wife or children, eats, sleeps and sleeps in the office, and hardly drinks.

however, as the conflicts between yermak and kuleba, kubrakov, and zaluzhny were made public, some officials around him began to reflect on the shortcomings of this "tough guy". arestovich, a former adviser to the presidential office, revealed to the media that until the war began, yermak still chose to communicate with zelensky in russian, and his style of doing things was "completely russian, treating everyone as a pawn."

a report by the warsaw-based centre for oriental studies noted that yermak was characterized by his "belief that private dialogue and quick decision-making were more effective than slow bureaucratic procedures."if ukraine's original semi-presidential political model works effectively, with adequate supervision, yermak's office will improve the efficiency of ukraine's government.but with the war entering a stalemate and parliament playing almost no role, where will a "number two" with significant character flaws lead ukraine?

a poll conducted in june showed that 43% of ukrainians believed that the quality of ukraine's democracy had declined under zelensky's leadership, but only 11% blamed the war. 50% believed that "corrupt and dishonest" assistants around zelensky were the main cause of these problems, and 56% of respondents expressed distrust of yermak himself.

regarding the fate of kuleba, kubrakov and zaluzhny, rudolf pointed out: "everyone who has participated in the governance reforms in ukraine over the past decade knows that this is neither the first nor the last time that trustworthy reformers are marginalized simply because they do a good job and their influence continues to grow." however, this time, against the backdrop of a greater crisis, some foreign forces that have always paid attention to and deeply involved in ukraine's internal governance chose to remain silent. u.s. government officials only told the media that ukraine's personnel adjustments were "worrying."

china newsweek