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the chinese film market this summer is in stark contrast to the continued high temperatures:

cold.

at this time last year, we were still making great strides, celebrating the confidence that the schedule results brought to the industry.

this year, the number of audiences and box office in the entire film market have dropped by 22%, and we have lost 200 million viewers.

it can be asserted that the disappearance of some small cinema chains and franchised cinemas will also accelerate this year. we are facing the problems of poor reputation of films, audiences not buying into the films, high daily operating costs, hotels, exhibition halls, and activity centers constantly squeezing the living space of cinemas' off-site activities, and at the same time, the number of film locations across the country has been reduced, affecting audiences' desire to watch the films, etc.

it's a vicious cycle.

in fact, the film industry is facing a global economic recession. for example, in the semi-annual reports of listed companies such as north american cinema chains, it can be seen that the north american box office in the first half of 2024 totaled 3.555 billion us dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%. although the long-term strike of hollywood screenwriters and actors unions last year caused the postponement of scheduled films, they are also facing the problem of quantity and quality of supply in the upstream of the industry chain.

as competitors across the ocean, chinese filmmakers, like their american counterparts, are experiencing the same impact:

streaming media has impacted the traditional film and television industry, and audiences’ fragmented time is no longer absorbed by tv and movies.

therefore, filmmakers from both china and the united states have to face a realistic problem:

reduce costs, improve quality, and expand capacity.

author | 9527

editor | xiaobai

typesetting | die

01

movies belong to the ecological niche of cultural products, and the industry concept and product concept need to be clearly positioned.

where did the missing 200 million viewers go?

in my opinion, they are immersed in various new cultural products that are more interactive and participatory, such as short dramas, online games and live broadcast rooms.

emerging media products are still enjoying the dividends of the online social era. everyone can be a designer of cultural products and find like-minded people in the vast internet. this trend is spreading around the world.

everyone firmly believes that he or she is a banner on the internet. countless banners come together to become the platform's main audience group. whoever has the most unique and resonant views will become the hottest star on the internet.

traditional media are limited by various conditions and are unable to make eye-catching promotions in terms of angles and viewpoints. the exhaustion of marketing creativity means that movies (including tv series) have to face netizens' multi-faceted viewpoint analysis at the beginning of promotion, rather than evaluating their products according to the film company's designated route.

more than a decade of online culture has made the publicity highlights such as "production and cast" no longer attract attention. on the contrary, in recent years, some traditional publicity strategies tend to emphasize "cast" and "sensationalism", which makes the audience increasingly distrustful. even before the preview of some movies, bloggers on the internet have "tested the poison" first. their opinions are often not supervised by the film company, and they only give their own opinions from a unique perspective, which has led to some movies "failure before they are released" -

for the well-informed audience, they can distinguish between water army and truth.

therefore, practitioners in the upstream of the industry who are racking their brains to capture the audience need to pay more attention to the audience's demands on social media, especially on platforms where users are concentrated. although they may not have fancy words or subtle instructions, their opinions are usually the most authentic.

for example:

"small town youth" are now not very interested in big productions, movie tickets can only be sold by catering to their tastes, and they have become the mouthpieces for most people in the era, etc., all of which have nothing to do with "big productions".

after all, chinese films have gone through the era of "spending xx billion", and now this is not the confidence that a movie will be a big hit.

1.4 billion people have 1.4 billion opinions. it has been 22 years since china's first commercial blockbuster "hero" was released. before 2002, chinese people were still unfamiliar with movie theaters, and the concept of "blockbuster" was limited to hollywood imported films. even feng's new year's film, which had the best reputation, only had a box office of tens of millions, and this was limited to the new year's day period.

the 200 million rmb investment in hero may seem insignificant today, but it was a brave move for chinese films. it was not only a market expansion, but also the first film for chinese filmmakers to build their own industry brand. on this basis, it had the strongest cast and the most "extravagant" publicity (20 million rmb), setting a precedent for tv commercials.

people at the time reported that "the theater was full, folding stools were placed in the aisles, and the auditorium was temporarily converted into a movie theater..."

yes, even in beijing, there were only five cinemas operating normally that year, and the number of screens nationwide was roughly estimated to be around 1,000.

this is the context of the times. talking about cases out of context is neither scientific nor responsible.

02

"big production + superb cast" later prevailed in the film industry for many years.

ten years after the release of "hero", in 2012, "lost in thailand" directly increased the box office from "100 million" to "1 billion+". since then, china's film industry has been advancing by leaps and bounds, and cinemas across the country have expanded rapidly at a rate of 15% per year. today, there are a total of 14,000 commercial cinemas in the country, with more than 80,000 screens.

however, the number of films released is decreasing. compared with the ratio of screens to films released in hong kong, taiwan, japan, south korea and even north america, we have always been leading in a one-way track.

over the past twelve years, the mainland internet has also been influenced by film and television culture. a large part of emoticons, memes and golden sentences come from classic lines and scenes that were popular at the time. however, in recent years, such popular sources have become less and less.

on the one hand, younger netizens can find the g-spot in streaming media and social events. on the other hand, the crowded track does not have enough capacity to absorb newer social ideas.

the idea of ​​investing in a good lineup to get box office revenue still influences the annual plans of some film producers to a certain extent.

there are creative ideas, but they are often used in the wrong places. for example, special effects. in 2009, "avatar" allowed chinese people to see 3d effects for the first time. then, 3d videos and 3d movies emerged like mushrooms after rain. in 2016, they ushered in a peak, and then everyone calmed down because the audience began to pay attention to the content. the imaginative pictures were certainly an indispensable addition to the social interaction of watching movies at that time, but not every audience would immerse themselves in the noise.

times have changed, and the change began quietly long before audiences grew tired of the gorgeous sets.

"tap water" is more about the core and emotional concern of a movie.

in 2019, white snake: origin influenced the scheduling of major theaters with its reputation. it did not even have a real actor, and the animated film emerged as a new force. paying tribute to classics, interpreting legends... although it is difficult to understand the changes in audience tastes, one thing is clear:

we have shot so many big productions and invited so many famous actors that the audience is gradually getting tired of them.

it was also in 2019 that netizens on social platforms ranked emotional value as the first priority for watching movies, when 56.7% of the audience voted:

the themes of blockbuster films are too "lofty" and out of reach for little people.

although animation films are still in the development stage, the investment volume and actor scheduling are more flexible than those of the leading companies. it has become a new track. the themes are still the same, the audience likes to watch, and it has not reached the point where bad money drives out good money. therefore, in 2019, many animation films were approved for filing.

however, the market as a whole still uses "investment + status" as the data source for box office forecasts.

until 2020.

03

2020-2022 is not only a year of struggle for chinese films, but also a period of time during which some cinemas began to disappear quietly.

in 2023, many audiences who walked into the cinema with great interest found that:

movie ticket prices are higher and there are fewer cinemas, but you can still watch movies.

but--

not as attractive as before.

in those years, many people lacked the sense of ritual of watching movies, and their attention was diverted by the small screen of mobile phones, which was more flexible and could freely manage their time. what's worse is that the routines of many movie promotions are still the same, and the content is either about the production or the cast. what's even worse is——

audiences have begun to tighten their wallets when watching movies. they are more willing to trust people who "test the drugs" for them first, and then decide whether to go to the cinema to spend money.

the middle and upper reaches of the film industry are still sticking to the past era.

capital smells danger before practitioners do, and the market returns for some big productions are no longer just based on past success stories.

high investment no longer means high output. how can a movie with an investment of over 100 million yuan make a profit within the release period?

this problem is unsolvable even if it is given to filmmakers. they are usually responsible for writing scripts, finding actors, shooting and editing, which is their main job. for already famous filmmakers, brand is a kind of confidence, until the reputation and box office of the next film shatter this confidence.

the cycle of rigid thinking has resulted in a project's overall planning thinking from its creation to its launch remaining stuck in the period before 2020, without realizing the identity conversion rate of "internet user-audience".

because it is now 2024, as mentioned above:

under the influence of emerging internet products, everyone can be a designer of cultural products or an exporter of ideas. this trend is spreading around the world.

the trend changes people's perception of movies and makes them seriously examine the cultural and emotional value attached to this cultural product.

they may not understand business operations, but they definitely know what they like.

as the market settles over the past many years, some things are changing.

04

audience preferences and value orientations require chinese filmmakers, who are now facing cold numbers, to realize the choice of the times and make the right response. some issues have reached the point where they have to be considered, such as:

1. the illusion of high input and high output

this is not absolute, but it is definitely the riskiest behavior today.

audiences don’t necessarily have to watch a certain type of work at a certain time. ordinary people don’t have a clear professional understanding of the investment in the production of a movie. what they want is “good-looking”. what does good-looking mean? a lot of money invested does not necessarily mean good-looking.

some film examples that emphasize visual effects and ignore the content of the film itself show that audiences are becoming less and less interested in "visuals" and "scenes".

the frequent cold reception of hollywood imported blockbusters in the domestic market has fully demonstrated that the tastes of domestic audiences have become more sophisticated. "blockbuster" is not a must-have for today's audiences.

2. famous actors may not necessarily make the audience pay for them——

the issue of actor pay has always been a controversial topic in the industry. how much influence does an actor's fame have on a movie? if you look closely, it's actually an audience consideration from the last century.

the actors' own demands for career development, their awareness of the big screen as a driving force for the actors' brands, etc. also need to be clearly planned. compared with the mainland, japanese and korean actors have inherent industry constraints, and hollywood can also rely on the huge world market to keep the actors' pay within a reasonable range.

in contrast, in mainland china, high actor pay is not a new topic, but how to measure cost-effectiveness and market value is a difficult mystery.

film pay cannot be directly equated with box office revenue, and eliminating the negative impact of high film pay on a film is an issue that needs to be urgently addressed.

3. consider the cost of aligning with international standards

under the premise of achieving the above cost control, it means that the cost of a single film tends to be rational, and the ratio of overall box office output to investment during the schedule is more acceptable. europe and the united states have a strict producer system. the shooting cycle and stage investment of a movie are clearly marked. unless there are force majeure factors such as natural disasters or strikes, the cycle cost control is quite strict.

4. some well-known creators lowered their remuneration requirements

under today's severe situation, the main creative team and important participants can consider reducing their remuneration, or converting part of the remuneration into investment, so as to reduce investment risks and make the input-output ratio more reasonable.

5. improve the quality of movies

the types of movies are diverse, and we cannot all be squeezed into one track. but this is a common problem in the industry. for example, after more than ten years of making comedies, how many of them can attract the market and win word of mouth? some people may worry about the audience's acceptance of a certain type of subject matter, but don't forget the cases mentioned above. any leader will enjoy the dividends of the times.

it was so in the past and it is so now.

6. use good steel on the blade

get rid of bubbles, concentrate on polishing works, form an effective ratio of "shooting-promotion-distribution", subdivide the focus of work during the production stage of a film, and focus all attention on the market and audience.

to sum up, since chinese filmmakers and their american counterparts are facing the same situation, the choices they make will certainly not go against each other.

in the face of the impact of emerging cultural products, it is not a fantasy or even a future vision to temporarily live a "hard life", focus your thoughts and perspectives on the audience level, and win word of mouth with sincere content.

but this is a decision that the chinese film industry must make right now.