this summer season is unusually cold: 200 million people lost from cinemas
2024-09-06
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this year's summer is very hot, but the summer movie market is unusually cold.
cinemas seem to be quietly facing a crisis of audience loss. this summer, despite a surge in screenings, the box office was almost halved, which undoubtedly cast a shadow on the film market. according to data from maoyan research institute, 285 million people entered the cinema during this summer, while 504 million people will watch movies in 2023. in other words, more than 200 million people were lost during this summer.
audiences are no longer going to the cinema frequently, which reflects the change in viewing habits and the serious shortage of high-quality films. diversified entertainment options are gradually eroding the traditional territory of cinemas, and the deeper reason is the concentrated outbreak of cyclical problems in the film market and the scarcity of high-quality content, which together weave a web that makes audiences "daunted".
“going to the cinema is no longer a must”
this year's summer box office was almost halved.
according to the data from lighthouse professional edition, the total box office (including pre-sales) of the 2024 summer season (june-august) exceeded 11.6 billion, with a total of 285 million tickets sold. the top five box office charts for the current season are "catch the doll", "silent", "alien: resurrection", "a small shop at the edge of the clouds", and "deadpool vs. wolverine".
movie theaters are losing audiences in large numbers.
the total box office of the 2023 summer season exceeded 20.6 billion yuan, and the total number of tickets issued was 505 million. although fewer people watched movies during the summer season this year, the number of screenings increased compared to last year, which means that the average attendance rate was almost halved. according to the data from lighthouse professional edition, as of august 30, more than 38 million movies had been screened during the 2024 summer season, a year-on-year increase of 10%, setting a new record for the same period in the historical summer season. at the same time, the average ticket price remained stable at 41.0 yuan, a slight increase of 0.1 yuan compared to 40.9 yuan in the same period last year.
then we move on to the whole year of 2024. as of september 3, the total box office in 2024 was 33.45 billion yuan, the number of moviegoers was 783 million, and the number of screenings was 98.9437 million. in the same period of 2023, the box office was 43.225 billion yuan, the number of moviegoers was 1.015 billion, and the number of screenings was only 87.78 million.
why do audiences no longer like to go to the cinema? to a certain extent, it is related to the change of viewing habits.
producer chen caiyun said in an interview with china business network: "in the current economic environment, movies are not a rigid demand, and cultural consumption is naturally placed in second place. compared with the great depression in the united states 100 years ago, people still liked to watch movies, but now it is not 100 years ago. there were very few entertainment activities at that time. now all kinds of entertainment methods such as games, short videos, short dramas, online dramas, concerts, etc. are attracting the attention of the audience. moreover, with the rapid development of various viewing equipment, the effect of playing movies on tv and projectors at home is also very good. even if you go to the nearest movie theater, it takes an hour to go back and forth. going to the theater to watch movies is not a must."
the 2024 summer movie data insight report released by maoyan research institute shows that there are 285 million moviegoers this summer, while there are 504 million moviegoers in 2023. if there is no favorite movie, the audience will pay special attention to the "cost-effectiveness" and "sex-time ratio" (referring to the effective use of time) of spending and time. the film market is sluggish, and in addition to the film producers, theater managers are also worried.
mr. wang, the manager of two cinemas in shanghai, told reporters: "the national film market is not good this year, and our cinema's attendance is also not good, but the decline in box office is slightly better than the market." during this year's paris olympics, mr. wang's cinema also participated in the live broadcast of the olympic events, which boosted the summer box office to a certain extent, but it seems to be just a drop in the bucket.
there are fewer good and blockbuster films, but the number of cinemas and screenings has increased. the "2024 first half film market research report" released by top data shows that in terms of cinema terminals, the number of cinemas in operation and newly built in the first half of the year has returned to positive growth. among them, there are 12,700 cinemas in operation, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year. there are 508 newly built cinemas, an increase of 29.9% year-on-year, and the increase in number is mainly concentrated in february.
in the first half of this year, wanda film, hengdian film and television, jinyi film and television, shanghai film, china film, wengtou holdings, and blue ocean entertainment, these film and television companies whose main business is terminal cinemas, almost all saw a decline in both revenue and net profit.
“the startup rate is very low now.”
there is a deeper reason behind the change in movie-watching habits, which is that there are not enough high-quality films.
maoyan research institute's survey shows that "there are movies that i'm interested in" and "i heard that a certain movie is very good" are the main motivations for summer moviegoers, accounting for nearly 50% in total. the main reason for those who did not watch movies during the summer is "there are no movies they want to watch", accounting for 42%.
the "2024 first half film market research report" shows that in terms of cinema operations, the box office volume of cinemas has declined significantly, and the number of high-yield cinemas with a box office of 2.5 million or more is only 60% of that in 2019.
in chen caiyun's opinion, there are two types of films that can attract audiences to the cinema. one is industrial-grade blockbusters, because they can only be seen in theaters; the other is films that are particularly popular, such as "gone girl" and "all or nothing".
maoyan research institute's research shows that young women and first- and second-tier audiences are more willing to discuss the word-of-mouth of the film, and positive word-of-mouth is the easiest to spread. compared with rating/commenting on movie platforms, more audiences tend to share their impressions on social media and wechat moments. compared with last year, this year's summer movies lack post-screening word-of-mouth feedback and discussion heat, and the number of hot searches on weibo and douyin is significantly weaker than last year. the lack of national hot spots has led to weak long-term box office growth.
in the industry's view, after the retaliatory movie-watching craze subsided in 2023, the cyclical problems in the film market caused by the epidemic also broke out in 2024.
sun jiashan, an associate researcher at the central academy of culture and tourism management, told china business news that even for small and medium-cost movies, it usually takes one or two years from script approval to filming and production completion, and some large-scale films often take three or four years. in the past few years, there were few film projects approved during the epidemic, and the impact on the industry was only truly reflected this year. in addition, there was a retaliatory viewing in the film market in 2023, that is, the offline cultural and entertainment consumption demands were released in a concentrated manner, so this year's popularity will definitely not be as high as last year, which had many accidents and special features.
yu dong, chairman, founder and general manager of bona film group, once publicly stated at the 14th beijing international film festival forum that the chinese film market will recover in 2023, in large part because many films have been piled up for many years in the past. for example, "fengshen" took nine years to make. the lack of production quantity and blockbuster scale in 2023 will directly affect the output of the film market in 2024, and even have an impact on the 2025 spring festival and summer vacation.
cheng fei, ceo of film research organization top data, believes: "the film supply seems to be sufficient in the past two years, but the market supply is still in the stage of clearing inventory, both this year and last year. we have counted that among the domestic feature films with a box office of more than 10 million yuan released from january to august this year, more than 50% were produced two years ago, and even more than 30% were produced three years ago. if there was still sufficient high-quality content supply to the market last year, the problem of insufficient supply of high-quality content this year will soon become apparent."
the film industry has long passed the period when it was easy to attract "hot money".
chen caiyun and the reporter recalled the market environment many years ago: "before the epidemic, from 2016 to 2018, investment in the film industry was particularly hot. those years were the peak period of investment. it was not too difficult for all kinds of films, big and small, to get investment."
now, chen caiyun said: "the start-up rate is very low. i hear many film producers around me saying that they have insufficient funds and it is difficult to start filming. once the hot money leaves, the film and television industry will be affected. this also leads to a lack of confidence among industry insiders. if the previous film loses money, investors dare not invest in the second one. moreover, under such circumstances, some film producers will also develop a herd mentality. they will do what others do and have no confidence in their own products."
how to break the dilemma
many industry insiders have stated in interviews that the chinese film market currently needs breakthroughs in both content and market levels.
"we need to work hard on content sources and creativity, as audiences will become more and more 'picky'. only good content can bring the entire industry back to life, which is currently in a relatively impetuous state. some audiences are even willing to spend a few minutes to watch a thumbnail version of a movie through short videos."
in chen caiyun's view, the only way to break through the current difficulties in the film market is to solve the problem from the perspective of content.
as a producer, chen caiyun thinks that she is like a product manager, who always needs to find a balance between the commercial and artistic aspects of a film. in the current environment, film product planning is particularly important. "in fact, the market does not need so many films, but good films."
on the one hand, practitioners need to make breakthroughs in content, but on the other hand, investment is indeed like "rain of blessings" to the current film and television industry.
recently, at the 7th "china film new power forum", mao yu, executive deputy director of the state film administration, said that capital and film should be brought closer. "if the film industry wants to move from a big country to a strong country, it must create a more open, fair and legalized investment environment to attract capital to participate in the construction of a strong film country. we sincerely hope that more financial and insurance companies will enter the film industry, and we also hope that local governments will formulate more precise incentive policies to alleviate the problem of insufficient investment in the film industry."
cheng fei told the reporter from china business network that the problems of the chinese film market are reflected in two aspects: content and market. on the content level, first, there is a serious shortage of upstream funds and a lack of high-quality content production. since the outbreak, the uncertainty of film investment risks has made non-industry capital investment more cautious, resulting in a lack of sufficient financial support upstream to promote high-quality large-scale content production. second, there is a shortage of upstream talent. there is a serious gap in excellent and influential young creators. third, the appreciation tastes and content preferences of chinese movie audiences are constantly changing, and film companies still need to continue to strengthen their insight into users and their ability to control content production.
when it comes to the solution to the chinese film market, cheng fei believes that it cannot be solved overnight. the top priority is to solve the problem of the lack of high-quality content supply from the source. in terms of investment and production funds, we can actively establish links with financial institutions, local governments and other enterprises and government departments, and strengthen their confidence in the film industry and introduce financial support. in terms of talent training, we should establish and improve policy measures for film talent training, especially strengthen strong support for young creative talents. in terms of content production, we should strengthen user-oriented awareness, strengthen timely insights into the audience and the market, and drive content production decisions with data.
as the market gradually calms down, there is also a view that a market cooling-off period is a good thing.
chen caiyun believes that the industry entering a cooling-off period is also a good thing. after the reshuffle, truly good works and creators will naturally be left behind.
sun jiashan has a similar view. he believes that from the perspective of the industry as a whole, a calmer market is better. if the market is overheated, there may be problems such as sky-high pay, which is not good for the industry. at present, it is a real competition of hard power through performance, script, etc.
the current film industry needs more high-quality content to revitalize the market. in addition, attracting young audiences may also be a good solution.
maoyan research institute's research shows that although the proportion of new users buying tickets during the summer season has declined significantly, the profile of new users is younger than that of the general ticket-buying users, which means that creating more "young" content is an important direction for attracting new users and increasing the proportion of young audiences buying tickets. for example, suspense, romance, fantasy, crime and other films are more popular with young audiences and have the potential for sustainable development.
major film and television theater companies are already working hard to introduce diversified businesses into theaters, and hold concerts, talk shows and other activities in theaters to attract more audiences. for example, wanda cinemas integrates movies, derivative product displays, live entertainment interactions and scenes, and attracts audiences, especially young customers, to theaters through scene check-in + grass-roots marketing + private domain marketing.
(this article comes from china business network)
