“the greater bay area is becoming more and more like a city.”

text/ ba jiuling (

mr. huang, a hong kong citizen, still remembers the hot afternoon of august 29, 2019.

that day, he followed a hong kong house-viewing group to zhuhai hengqin free trade zone. he walked a lot, and although his feet didn't get blisters yet, his ears were almost getting calluses.

along the way, the local agents in zhuhai kept talking, "if you missed shenzhen, don't miss hengqin again." "the price of nanshan in shenzhen is now 100,000, and hengqin can reach at least 80,000. this property is only 40,000, and there is room for appreciation." "distance is not a problem, the hong kong-zhuhai-macao bridge is open to traffic, and it only takes an hour to drive there."...

unable to resist the agent's constant nagging, mr. huang finally signed the house purchase contract.

five years later, mr. huang's house has not appreciated in value, but has dropped by 700,000 yuan. mr. huang, who suffered a loss, often reminds his friends not to buy houses recklessly.

but there are always people who don't listen to advice. huang's colleague chen just spent 1 million yuan to buy a 100-square-meter commercial house in zhongshan city.

when asked why he chose zhongshan, mr. chen answered: "this apartment is for my wife and i to live in in our old age. if we live here for 20 years, the monthly cost is only 4,000 yuan. this is a good deal. in hong kong, the monthly rent for a parking space is 4,000 yuan.”

hong kong buyers like mr. chen have crowded the major property sales offices in guangdong recently. according to a global times report on august 25:

in the past, july and august were traditionally the off-season for the property market, but the opening of the shenzhen-zhongshan link this year attracted a large number of customers from hong kong and macao to "go north" to view properties. many developers attracted customers to inspect properties by means of self-driving or property-viewing tours departing from hong kong and macao, and special experience tours (for example: two-day and one-night tours to experience local food and spa massage).

"hong kong people moving to the north to buy property" has once again become a fashion trend.

the mental journey of hong kong people

it is not new for hong kong people to buy houses in mainland cities.as early as the beginning of reform and opening up, many hong kong businessmen bought houses in guangdong.the most arrogant one was ho ying-tung, who spent 1.8 billion yuan to purchase 30,000 acres of land at the southernmost tip of guangzhou.

guangzhou nansha new district

however, that was a game exclusive to a small number of wealthy people in hong kong, and had nothing to do with ordinary citizens of hong kong. at that time, hong kong's economy was thriving. in 1980, hong kong's per capita gdp was more than 90 times that of guangdong. many hong kong people looked down on their "poor relatives" in guangdong, and they didn't care about the guangdong property market.

later, as guangdong's economy developed rapidly, more and more hong kong people went to guangdong, only to find that guangdong was getting better day by day, and the economic and urban construction gap between the pearl river delta and hong kong was gradually narrowing, so they came up with the idea of ​​buying a house in the pearl river delta.

around 2019, there was the first small peak in hong kong people buying properties in the north.at that time, the real estate market in the pearl river delta was extremely hot, and many guangdong people made a fortune by speculating in real estate, which also attracted hong kong people.

on the other hand, governments at all levels in guangdong also support hong kong people to buy property in the north.before 2019, hong kong and macao residents had to have lived and worked in guangdong for a full year and provide relevant study, work, residence certificates and employer certificates before they could purchase a home for self-use.

in the second half of 2019, the nine cities in the pearl river delta gradually lifted these restrictive policies and simplified the home purchase process. hong kong and macao residents only need to provide their hong kong and macao identity cards and passes to purchase a home.

many hong kong citizens heard the news and headed north on weekends to go shopping and look at houses, looking for those that seem to have the greatest potential for appreciation.

at that time, shenzhen qianhai free trade zone, zhuhai hengqin free trade zone and guangzhou nansha free trade zone were the sectors most valued by hong kong investors.

these three free trade zones have benefited from national policies and attracted many large companies and star startups to settle in. the industrial economy is developing rapidly, and educational and medical facilities are also gradually improving, giving people unlimited room for imagination.

ideals are full, but reality is very skinny. with the continuous increase in real estate regulation policies, such as the "three red lines" policy, the "two-concentration land supply" policy, and the "mortgage concentration management" policy, the mainland property market has undergone a 180-degree reversal in the second half of 2021, and housing prices have continued to fall, shattering the speculative dreams of hong kong people.

however, as the housing price gap between hong kong and the pearl river delta still exists, commercial housing in the pearl river delta is still attractive to hong kong people.

after 2023, hong kong people "rushed" back to the pearl river delta.

in the first half of this year, the average monthly number of "hong kong vehicles heading north" exceeded 110,000 times, and the average monthly growth rate of hong kong single-plate vehicles entering and leaving the hong kong-zhuhai-macao bridge was nearly 34%. since the opening of another "main artery", the shenzhen-zhongshan channel, on june 30, the cumulative traffic volume in the first month exceeded 3 million vehicles, with an average daily traffic volume of about 100,000 vehicles.

shenzhen-zhongshan link, zhongshan, guangdong

among the hong kong buses heading north, there are a number of buses arranged by guangdong real estate agencies, and the passengers inside are hong kong people who are going to the pearl river delta to look at houses.

zhang bo, director of the 58 anjuke research institute, pointed out: "since the beginning of this year, the property market in the greater bay area has continued to cool down, and the oversupply trend has become more obvious. this has also led to many first-hand housing projects working hard to develop new customer groups. more transaction commissions have also given intermediaries a strong impetus to attract hong kong and macao customers."

the house hunters in hong kong did not disappoint the agents’ efforts and placed orders very promptly. they would buy once they saw something they liked without any delay.

according to the securities times, by the end of july, hong kong customers accounted for about 4% of the transaction volume in shenzhen's second-hand housing market. the second climax of hong kong people buying properties in the north has appeared.

regarding this phenomenon, financial commentator liu xiaobo expressed his views:

since the beginning of this year, the number of hong kong people going north to buy houses in various cities in the greater bay area has indeed increased significantly. this is closely related to the new wave of hong kong people's northward consumption enthusiasm. there are three main reasons for this wave of hong kong people's northward consumption enthusiasm: first, the hong kong dollar has appreciated against the rmb, making northward consumption very cost-effective; second, hong kong's own consumption has decreased, and northward consumption has become a substitute; third, in the past few years, the transportation facilities and commercial facilities in the mainland have been more complete, and the shopping environment has become better, making this "substitution" more valuable.

more and more hong kong people have realized that the development level of the greater bay area is close to that of hong kong through consumption in the north, and that it is more convenient and efficient to see a doctor. this makes them feel that it is also attractive to retire in the mainland or live across cities.

in the past, hong kong people came to the mainland to buy houses for investment and appreciation. now they are more inclined to use them for their own use. before retirement, they can enjoy a 5+2 cross-city life, and after retirement, they can live in the mainland.

the mental journey of hong kong people moving north to buy houses is driven by the economic changes and cultural integration between the two places.

what kind of houses do hong kong people like?

behind the mental journey of hong kong people when buying a house lies their preferences for buying a house.

senior real estate agent zheng jingliang told xiaoba,among the nine cities in the pearl river delta, the preferred cities for hong kong residents to buy houses are zhuhai or zhongshan.

why not guangzhou, foshan, jiangmen, huizhou or zhaoqing? because these five cities are too far from hong kong and it is troublesome to drive back and forth.

why not shenzhen or dongguan, which are very close to hong kong? because these two cities are supported by people from other provinces, residents rarely speak cantonese, and it is difficult to find authentic cantonese restaurants on the streets, which makes hong kong compatriots feel uncomfortable when integrating.

the rental-to-sale ratio of commercial housing is too low, and hong kong people would rather rent a house in shenzhen than buy one. xiaoba's classmate mr. cai (a permanent resident of hong kong) chose to rent in shenzhen and buy in zhongshan.

in addition to city preferences, hong kong people are also very concerned about factors such as price, location, house type, quality, and feng shui when buying a house.

homebuyers who understand real estate information

since hong kong's middle class has limited assets and has already bought a house in hong kong, it is difficult for them to come up with money to buy a very expensive house. hong kong's middle class generally do not consider prime locations such as guangzhou zhujiang new town and the northern part of shenzhen bay. and the fine villas in cities such as zhuhai and zhongshan are also beyond the budget of hong kong's middle class.

in fact, hong kong people’s pursuit of housing size is not as exaggerated as that of mainlanders (some real estate projects in small cities only sell houses larger than 120 square meters).in hong kong, the average living area per person is only 5 square meters, and a house exceeding 92 square meters will be considered a "thousand-foot luxury house."

however, hong kong people have stricter requirements for residential facilities and housing quality than mainlanders. this round of property purchases in beijing is led by older middle-class hong kong people. they prefer to buy large residential areas with mature facilities and existing buildings, with 2 to 3 bedrooms as the main unit type. many people also choose apartments with lower total prices.

zheng jingliang told xiaoba that middle-aged and elderly people in hong kong, whose main needs are for retirement, also attach great importance to transportation conditions.although guangdong's medical standards have improved rapidly, hong kong's elderly still trust hong kong's medical system more.even if you live in the mainland, you have to go back to hong kong for medical treatment.

generally speaking, hong kong people are more rational when buying houses in guangdong and are not hesitant.

greater bay area connectivity

while hong kong people are "rushing to buy" houses in the mainland, more and more mainlanders are rushing to hong kong to "buy up the house".

the number of mainlanders moving south to buy property has reached a small peak this year.

in the first half of this year, hong kong recorded a total of 6,117 sales registrations by mandarin buyers, up nearly 70% from 3,667 in the same period last year. the total amount involved was hk$70.54 billion, up 42% year-on-year. both transaction volume and transaction amount set a new record since records began in 1995.

currently, the proportion of mandarin-speaking buyers in the hong kong property market has risen to a historical high of 25%.

hong kong, residential buildings under construction

mainland buyers pouring into the hong kong property market can be divided into two categories:the first category is young people from the mainland who want to live, work and study in hong kong, and the second category is middle-aged and elderly people who want to invest in hong kong.

young people from the mainland are attracted by hong kong’s educational resources and job opportunities and are deeply influenced by the “higher education talent scheme”.

the so-called "high talent scheme" is a policy of the hong kong government to attract highly educated and high-income talents by the end of 2022. as of the end of may 2024, the hong kong government has received nearly 85,000 high-talent applications, and more than 68,000 have been approved. nearly 90% of the approved applicants are from the mainland.

the continuous influx of young people from the mainland into hong kong has directly pushed up hong kong's housing prices. according to zheng jingliang's estimate, the average rent of hong kong houses has increased by 20% from the beginning of 2023 to now.

however, the price of new homes in hong kong continues to fall. on august 28, data from the hong kong rating and valuation department showed that the private residential sales price index in july 2024 was 296.8 points, down about 1.88% from the previous month, the largest monthly drop since november last year. the index has fallen for three consecutive months.this is the lowest level in nearly eight years since september 2016.

higher rents and lower house prices mean that the rental-to-sale ratio in hong kong's property market is rising, which is a good entry point for mainland tycoons with investment needs.

according to the daily economic news, mainland buyers generally prefer small and medium-sized entry-level properties in hong kong, such as one- to two-bedroom properties with a total price of less than hk$10 million, and there are also a certain proportion of luxury home buyers. in some new properties, buyers who speak mandarin pinyin account for more than 40%.

in fact, whether it is hong kong people buying properties in the north or guangdong people buying properties in the south, they essentially reflect a trend:internal exchanges in the guangdong-hong kong-macao greater bay area are becoming more frequent, the flow of capital, technology and talents is becoming smoother, and the 11 cities are merging into one.

in fact, as early as the tang dynasty more than 1,000 years ago, the pearl river delta plain had only one administrative unit - nanhai county (called guangzhou in the song dynasty and guangzhou prefecture in the ming and qing dynasties). it was not until the outbreak of the opium war and the cession of hong kong to britain that guangzhou prefecture began to split.

image source: internet

now, more than 180 years have passed, and the pearl river delta plain has achieved "unification" in a new form.

in the era of the greater bay area, the water of the pearl river is more abundant, the wind of the south china sea is stronger, and the wealth of lingnan is more prosperous.

author of this article | rao zufen | responsibilityeditor | xu tao

editor-in-chief | he mengfei | image source |VCG