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with the continuous release of real estate policies, the market heat of new and second-hand houses continued to remain at a high level in august, and the market confidence of home buyers was further enhanced. on september 4, the "market confidence index report" released by linping residential big data research institute showed that the market confidence index of first-tier cities rebounded slightly in august, while that of second-tier cities continued to decline and that of third- and fourth-tier cities remained stable. the real estate markets in shanghai, wuxi and chengdu have warmed up significantly, with good transaction volume and price performance, which has played a supporting role in the recovery of market confidence.

the continued effectiveness of existing favorable policies for the property market and the introduction of new policies are also injecting fresh blood into the property market, continuously boosting market confidence. on september 4, the listing of a219-0080 plots at the shenzhen public resources trading center attracted attention, mainly because the bidding requirements mentioned that all houses must be sold as ready-made properties. in the eyes of industry insiders, this reform can be understood as an important manifestation of a new model for real estate development.

shanghai property market heats up significantly

data from the linping residential big data research institute showed that the market confidence index of first-tier cities rebounded slightly in august, while that of second-tier cities continued to decline and that of third- and fourth-tier cities remained stable. among them, the market confidence index of first-tier cities was -0.82, up 0.02 from the previous month. at the same time, the overall downward pressure on housing prices in second-tier, third- and fourth-tier cities is relatively large, and market confidence lacks the momentum to rise. data showed that the market confidence index of second-tier, third- and fourth-tier cities in august was -0.89 and -0.88, down 0.03 and flat respectively from the previous month.

looking at the cities, shanghai had a significantly higher growth rate, with the confidence index rising by 0.17 from the previous month. the shanghai property market has heated up significantly recently, with transaction volume and price performing well, supporting the recovery of market confidence. wuxi and chengdu ranked second and third, with the confidence index rising by 0.07 and 0.04 respectively from the previous month.

relatively speaking, the confidence indexes of beijing, guangzhou and shenzhen showed a downward trend, down 0.01, 0.04 and 0.04 respectively from the previous month. guan rongxue, senior analyst at linping residential big data research institute, said that the short-term confidence improvement in beijing, guangzhou and shenzhen is not as good as that in shanghai, and the effect of the subsequent market stabilization expectations will require further observation of data over a longer period of time.

yan yuejin, deputy director of the e-house research institute, said that first-tier cities are now playing a leading role mainly because the potential housing demand in big cities is relatively sufficient. in addition, new real estate policies such as lowering the down payment ratio and reducing loan interest rates have indeed reduced the cost of buying a house, further driving the recovery of the market confidence index in first-tier cities.

housing prices in 5 cities may rise in stages

according to the market confidence index model for predicting housing prices, housing prices in five of the 50 key cities monitored by the linping residential big data research institute have experienced a periodic increase.

guan rongxue said that through the market confidence index model, combined with the recent stabilization trend of shanghai's real estate transaction volume and price and the sharp rebound in the market confidence index this month, it is predicted that housing prices in shanghai may continue to rise in the next two months, with a cumulative increase of 0.49% in the next four months; shenzhen's housing price expectations are roughly the same. given that shenzhen's confidence index continues to stay within the wait-and-see range, it is predicted that housing prices in shenzhen may "rise first and then fall" in the next four months, with a cumulative increase of 0.18%. in addition, housing prices in yinchuan, guiyang, and taiyuan are expected to rise briefly next month.

"there is not strong expectation for price increase in beijing and guangzhou in the short term." guan rongxue said that although there is not strong expectation for price increase, the decline in beijing in the next five months will be relatively limited, and the sentiment of rapid decline in housing prices seems to have passed.

according to the data, 5,308 new homes were sold in beijing in august, up 29.7% from the previous month and 28.8% year-on-year. 14,363 second-hand homes were sold, up 31.05% from 10,960 in august last year. the sales volume has remained above 14,000 for three consecutive months, maintaining a medium-high level of sales volume.

yan yuejin said that the confidence of homebuyers continued to increase, which also promoted the increase in market transaction volume, and the market situation continued to improve compared with the past sluggish situation. with the arrival of the "golden september and silver october", the temperature has dropped and the favorable real estate policies have continued to be implemented, which has accelerated the market recovery, and the market will further recover and improve.

favorable policy effects are gradually released

the existing favorable policies for the real estate market continue to play their role, and the introduction of new policies is also injecting fresh "blood" into the real estate market, constantly boosting market confidence. on september 4, the listing of a219-0080 plots at the shenzhen public resources trading center attracted attention. the main reason was that the bidding requirements mentioned that all houses must be sold as ready-made properties, which means that the shenzhen land market has ushered in new changes.

yan yuejin said that the shenzhen land parcel included three types of reforms, namely, the certificate was issued upon the handover of the land, the certificate was issued upon the handover of the house, and the house was delivered ready. this also shows that the policy innovation of this land parcel is not accidental, but has a very clear reform orientation. it can be understood as an important manifestation of the new model of real estate development.

it is reported that the land transfer conditions have set new requirements, and all ordinary commercial housing within the land must be sold as ready-made houses. in addition, the land can be used to sign the state-owned construction land use right transfer contract and the first registration procedures for the state-owned construction land use right in accordance with the "land delivery and certificate delivery" model. potential bidders for the land must provide a "letter of commitment on "issuance of certificates upon delivery of houses"" when applying to confirm their bidding qualifications, promising to provide the "issuance of certificates upon delivery of houses" service to ensure that buyers are eligible to apply for and receive real estate ownership certificates at the same time as they receive the houses.

industry insiders told beijing business daily that the measure has protected the rights and interests of home buyers, can effectively reduce the occurrence of unfinished projects, and played a key role in increasing buyers' confidence in purchasing their homes.

yan yuejin added that the move also means that new institutional innovations will be needed in the subsequent financing policies, mortgage loan policies, sales policies, etc. of existing housing projects, or that some housing purchase contracts need to be adjusted and optimized more quickly.

public data shows that some cities are also encouraging and supporting real estate companies to sell existing homes. as early as 2021, cities such as beijing, suzhou, hefei, xi'an, ningbo, fuzhou and shaoxing carried out pilot projects for selling existing homes. for example, in the third batch of centralized land supply in beijing in 2021, the 0408-646 plot of jinsong street, chaoyang district, beijing, one of the 12 residential land lots, requires that all future commercial residential buildings be sold as existing homes at the initial stage.

guo yi, chief analyst of heshuo research institute, said that shenzhen, like beijing, was one of the first cities to pilot the sales model of ready-to-move-in homes. in general, most of the land parcels in shenzhen were sold with partially ready-to-move-in homes before. this time, it is actually a further advancement on the planning requirements and land auction rules for partial sale. at the same time, it also means a bigger step forward from pre-sale of future homes to sales of ready-to-move-in homes.

beijing business daily reporter wang yinhao and li han