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text/wang xinxi

from the current perspective, with the development of new energy vehicles, the cumulative sales of fuel vehicles in the first half of the year reached 5.73 million, a year-on-year decline of 13%. this is not the worst time, because fuel vehicles are suffering from five major shocks.

in the past few years, when it comes to the advantages of fuel vehicles over new energy vehicles, there may be advantages in terms of range and energy replenishment, cost-effectiveness, stability and durability. but today, these advantages of fuel vehicles have basically disappeared.

first of all, the range of new energy vehicles is getting longer and longer, and the problem of false range labeling basically no longer exists.today’s electric vehicle manufacturers test range according to international standards, and the intelligent system can adjust battery predictions based on driving habits, giving you greater peace of mind.

secondly, if charging range anxiety was the key advantage of gasoline vehicles over electric vehicles in the past, this advantage is now gradually being eliminated. charging facilities have basically blossomed like convenience stores.the number of charging piles is growing rapidly in both urban areas and highway service areas. with the development of battery swap station technology, battery replacement can be done in a few minutes. the gap between the advantages of gasoline vehicles and the anxiety of electric vehicles is not that big.

third, what has given gasoline car companies a leg up is that the experience advantages of electric cars have been recognized by most consumers.recently, some netizens expressed that they did not understand why the sales of japanese cars collapsed.camry2.0 hybrid, car price 160,000, fuel consumption is only four or five liters of oil,bydthe qin pilot version is 140,000 yuan, and the fuel consumption is also four or five liters, which is also mid-range.byd hanthe price and fuel consumption are not much different. the camry is an enduring benchmark for mid-size cars. it is much better than the low-end qin and mid-range han.

some netizens pointed out that the camry's various functional configurations are worse than qin's, and the camry has reached its upper limit.qin lthe lower limit is actually two levels.

"oil consumption is only one aspect. there are more aspects that make electric cars more comfortable and intelligent. if you take a test drive at a 4s store, you will experience the obvious difference between the two cars.", "let alone refrigerators, color tvs, and large sofas, you can't go back after using zhijia. they are not products of the same era.", "japanese cars have strong tool attributes. if there are better and cheaper tools, consumers will ruthlessly abandon the old tools."

if there were still a lot of controversy about which is better, electric cars or gasoline cars a year or two ago, now there are fewer and fewer disputes about the experience, and consumer perceptions are changing.

fourthly, the new regulations on fuel consumption per 100 kilometers are a heavy blow to fuel vehicles.

on august 21, a document soliciting public opinions on two mandatory national standards, including "passenger car fuel consumption evaluation methods and indicators", appeared on the official website of the ministry of industry and information technology.

there are three points: 1. for vehicles with a curb weight of less than 1090kg, the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers needs to be controlled within 2.57l; 2. for vehicles with a curb weight between 1090kg and 2510kg, the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers needs to be controlled within 3.3l; 3. for vehicles with a curb weight greater than 2510kg, the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers needs to be controlled within 4.7l.

let alone fuel vehicles, even japanese plug-in hybrid vehicles cannot meet this standard. this is almost like telling fuel vehicle manufacturers that if they cannot meet this fuel consumption standard, they will have to spend money to buy credits. therefore, once this policy is released, many car manufacturers will be forced to stop producing fuel vehicles. this includes the very strong fuel vehicle camp.great wallandcheryfuel vehicles will all suffer a heavy blow.

fifth, some national highways resume toll collection, making it more difficult for fuel vehicles

recently, news broke that toll booths will be set up on national highways in many places, which immediately sparked heated discussions among netizens. because the original road maintenance fee has been changed to a fuel surcharge, which is used for road construction and maintenance, fuel car owners are paying road maintenance fees when refueling.

for owners of fuel vehicles, there is a problem of duplicate charges at fuel surcharges and toll stations.

secondly, new energy vehicle owners do not have to pay "road maintenance fees" because they do not need to use oil. therefore, some netizens said that it is new energy vehicles that should pay road maintenance fees. electric vehicles use charging piles, and the current charging standards do not include road maintenance fees. however, the current national highway road maintenance fees do not clearly state whether you use oil or electricity, which means that for people who buy oil cars, the additional costs have increased. fuel cars are even more difficult.

it’s 2024 now. what are people who are still buying fuel vehicles thinking?

in the first half of this year, although fuel vehicles have declined by 13% year-on-year, judging from the sales rankings of sedans and suvs in june, fuel vehicles are still doing well. it is already autumn 2024, and many people still choose fuel vehicles for different reasons.

some consumers use their cars more for long distances, and the problem of queuing for charging on holidays still exists. oil cars do not have long-distance range anxiety, so they choose oil cars. some consumers consider the immediate use of cars more, and oil cars can be used at any time and are convenient for refueling, so they choose oil cars.

or in rural areas, many people buy bba for face because everyone recognizes this brand, so they choose gasoline cars for face; or they have been driving gasoline cars for many years and think that gasoline cars are more durable and easier to repair, and that electric cars have battery degradation problems, but gasoline cars do not have this problem. they also choose gasoline cars.

excluding the cost of using a car, feelings and habits, convenience of refueling, mileage and other reasons, a key reason now may be that people trust the safety of gasoline vehicles more.

electric vehicles have a simple structure, without complex transmission systems and internal combustion engines, and their daily maintenance costs are also low, but the key cost and safety factors lie in the batteries.

the problem of spontaneous combustion is a phenomenon with an extremely low probability. the proportion of spontaneous combustion of gasoline vehicles is higher than that of electric vehicles. however, since the escape time for spontaneous combustion is short, many consumers still care about this issue.

recently, a netizen said: i finally decided not to buy an electric car. from the electric car's tire pressing on the manhole cover, causing the cover to lift up and hit the battery under the car, causing an explosion and fire, to the battery burning and exploding, causing a fire in the garage, i have seen many reports saying that electric cars are banned from entering underground garages in many places, and i am worried that my own community will do the same.

some netizens also said that the complete solution to the safety problem of electric vehicles may depend on solid-state batteries. they hope that china will develop solid-state batteries sooner or later and give the people a safe car! let everyone's hanging hearts fall!

"if safety issues are not resolved, the consequences will be catastrophic." zeng yuqun, chairman of catl, recently called at the 2024 world power battery conference that the focus of improving the safety of new energy vehicles is batteries. battery safety is a complex system engineering that runs through multiple links such as battery material development.

he cited a report from cctv as saying that the fire incidence rate of domestic new energy vehicles in 2023 was about 0.96 per 10,000.

in zeng yuqun's opinion, the safety factor of most batteries on the market is far from enough. many products claim that the safety failure rate reaches the ppm level, that is, the safety failure rate is one in a million, but in fact their safety failure rate is at the level of one in ten thousand or even one in a thousand. at present, the number of new energy vehicles in the country exceeds 25 million, and the number of battery cells installed has reached billions. if the number of battery cells is multiplied by the safety failure rate, the safety risk is imaginable.

"if the defect rate does not reach one billionth, it is not a good battery." zeng yuqun talked about the pain points in the development of new energy vehicles. safety may be an important reason why many consumers still choose gasoline vehicles.

if the safety trust issue is resolved, many car owners who are used to driving gasoline cars will probably have no psychological concerns about choosing new energy vehicles. i hope that car companies will treat battery safety issues as a top priority. now that new energy vehicles have surpassed fuel vehicles in all aspects, eliminating this psychological concern of consumers may be the key to determining whether those consumers who stubbornly choose fuel vehicles can be impressed.

author: wang xinxi, senior tmt commentator. reprinting without permission is prohibited.