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reporter wang zhen

zhang jun, chief economist of galaxy securities, suggested in a research report that a national reserve institution should be established through central government bond financing or central credit enhancement to issue bonds.2trillion-3by issuing a trillion yuan in national debt, we can reduce residential inventory to a reasonable level at a controllable cost in one go.

zhang jun pointed out that for the current chinese economy, the continued decline in the real estate market is undoubtedly a historical burden that restricts economic transformation. according to his calculations, the continued decline in real estate directly drags down the nominal gdp growth rate by about 1% through development investment and "land finance", and indirectly drags down the nominal gdp growth rate by about 0.6% through the upstream and downstream industrial chains and post-real estate cycle consumption. in addition, the decline in real estate also poses complex potential risks to the economy.

he mentioned that looking back at the great depression of 1929 and the subprime mortgage crisis in the united states in 2008, real estate was behind both economic crises. historical experience shows that solving the problem of the scale of real estate depends on the central government's credit to support the balance sheets of residents and enterprises.

zhang jun pointed out that the current problems facing my country's real estate market include both cyclical problems caused by population and urbanization, as well as structural contradictions between supply and demand. on the one hand, inventory is high, with inventory levels in major cities across the country continuing to rise to more than 40 months; on the other hand, the overall demand gap for affordable housing may be more than 10 million units, which requires an investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan.

he further pointed out that the main constraints facing the current policy of stockpiling are the limited leverage space of local governments and the difficulty of financing costs to cover the rental return rate, which makes stockpiling difficult to implement in most regions. of the 300 billion yuan of affordable housing refinancing set up by the central bank in may, only 12.1 billion yuan has been used so far, and local stockpiling is mainly concentrated in regions with high inventory levels and relatively good local finances.

in this dilemma, zhang jun put forward the suggestion at the beginning, that is, to provide credit and financial support from the central level, to collect and store a large amount of difficult-to-digest real estate inventory at one time, to solve the structural contradiction between supply and demand, and to build the new real estate development model mentioned in the third plenary session of the 18th cpc central committee through the method of "buying instead of building, renting instead of selling".

zhang jun said that the plan can not only increase the nominal economic growth rate by more than 1% by stabilizing real estate, but also meet the demand for affordable housing construction at a lower price. the benefits of countercyclical policies are significantly greater than the costs.

in addition to economic benefits, this policy can also alleviate the "triple pressure" of real estate companies, banks and local governments: reduce the negative impact of the "negative wealth effect" of housing price adjustments on residents' consumption and expectations; do not increase local additional fiscal burdens, moderately loosen land fiscal constraints, and alleviate local government debt pressure; supporting real estate is to support banks, avoiding systemic financial risks due to continued declines in asset prices.