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“i’ve never run out of rice before.”

a male customer in fukuoka prefecture, japan was surprised to find that the supermarket shelf where brown rice was supposed to be stored was empty.

"this summer we can only purchase half the amount of rice as in previous years, and the daily rice stock is usually used up by noon," said a clerk at the fresco chain, a famous supermarket chain in tokyo.

japan is experiencing its first rice shortage since 1999.

starting in august, ito-yokado, a large japanese supermarket chain, tightened the rice purchase quota across japan, limiting each household to one bag. ok corporation, which is headquartered in yokohama and operates supermarkets in the kanto region, began to limit rice purchases on july 15.

tight demand has pushed up rice prices. the latest data released by japan showed that rice prices in july rose 17.2% from the same period last year, the largest increase in 20 years.

the severe rice shortage was dubbed the "reiwa rice riot" by japanese media and sparked heated discussions on social media.

this is not the first time that a "rice riot" has occurred in japan. before reiwa, there were also the "taisho rice riot" and the "heisei rice riot".

after the 1993 "heisei rice riots", the japanese government learned its lesson and established a grain reserve system - the reserve grain reserves are about 150 tons (± 50 tons), equivalent to three months of supply in a normal year. in 2001, the japanese ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries adjusted the grain storage index and set the reserve grain reserves at about 1 million tons.

on august 26, osaka prefecture called on the japanese central government to release reserve rice as soon as possible to ease supply tensions. "there is no need to let rice sleep in warehouses."

however, the japanese government does not seem to have any intention to release its rice reserves. on august 27, japan's minister of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, tetsuo sakamoto, revealed that he had received a request from osaka prefecture to release the government's rice reserves. "this may have a negative impact on the supply and demand and price of rice based on private circulation, and should be treated with caution."

what caused japan's "rice shortage"? how long will the shortage last?

in a supermarket in tokyo, a 2-kilogram bag of rice from niigata prefecture, a well-known rice producing area in japan, is sold for about rmb 60, which is about 20% higher than before.

the july national consumer price index released by japan's ministry of internal affairs and communications showed that rice prices rose 17.2% year-on-year, the largest increase since 19.5% in april 2004. among rice, koshihikari rice rose 15.6% and polished rice rose 18.0%. rice-based products such as onigiri and senbei were also affected, with onigiri rising 5.7% and senbei rising 16.1%.

"soaring rice prices are accelerating the rise in (the company's) costs," said minoru kanaya, president of japanese restaurant chain skylark international.

royal holdings, a japanese catering and hotel services provider, also expects that using domestic rice will increase costs by about 100 million yen (about $693,000).

on the retail side, concerns about rice shortages have prompted japanese people to rush to supermarkets to buy rice. as demand continues to rise, supermarket rice shelves have been cleared out. supermarkets and rice stores in tokyo, osaka and other places have experienced tight rice supply or even out of stock.

a survey conducted by the japan rice and grain merchants association showed that about 85% of rice sellers among the association's members said it was difficult or even impossible to purchase goods.

in fact, this trend appeared as early as april this year.

japan's asahi shimbun reported in early august that a survey conducted from april to may this year showed that 85% of 307 respondents had reduced their rice purchases or were unable to buy more rice.

many japanese media have used the term "reiwa rice riot" to describe the recent rice crisis. to avoid a repeat of past chaos, japan's minister of agriculture has asked consumers not to "panic buy" rice and promised that this year's harvest will be delivered to local stores soon.

according to a report by the japan broadcasting association (nhk) on august 28, the rice-producing area of ​​fukui prefecture recently began selling new rice, but due to the nationwide rice shortage, the price of new rice is more than 30% higher than usual.

it is not just the price of rice that is troubling the public. with the end of government subsidies, japan's electricity bills have risen by 22.3%, the largest increase in 43 years; city gas fees have also risen by 10.8%. rising prices have led to increased expenses, and more and more japanese families can no longer bear the increasing financial burden.

rice occupies a central position in japanese food culture.

in fact, japan's rice demand has been falling for some time due to a shrinking population and changes in dining habits, and officials also believe that existing stocks are sufficient to meet people's needs.

the reasons given by the japanese government for the sudden "rice shortage" can be attributed to three aspects: extreme weather leading to reduced production, the influx of foreign tourists leading to increased demand, and the "major earthquake" warning triggering panic buying among the people.

let’s break down the three main reasons.

the first is extreme weather. currently, most of the rice sold on the japanese market is harvested in the previous year. in the summer of 2023, japan suffered an extreme heat wave, with the average temperature hitting the highest record since 1898. niigata prefecture, a well-known rice producing area in japan, also suffered from three dry and hot winds brought by the foehn phenomenon, resulting in drought problems.

the extreme heat not only caused a decrease in rice production, but also affected the quality of rice. the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of japan reported that the percentage of first-class rice fell to a record low of 59.6% in 2023. as a result, the price of limited high-quality rice also rose accordingly.

however, given that the weather in japan remains extremely hot this summer, heat damage has also occurred in the main rice producing areas in eastern japan, and next year's rice harvest may also be affected.

some japanese analysts have warned that the shortage of rice in japan may come earlier than expected next year, and the rising trend of rice prices will continue. "even if the new rice is put on the market in large quantities, under the current high inflation, it remains to be seen how much the overall price of the rice market can fall after the new rice is put on the market."

while production is falling, consumption is growing beyond expectations. in the 12 months ending in june this year, japan's rice demand increased by 110,000 tons to 7.02 million tons, the first increase in 10 years. analysts believe that this is mainly due to the sharp rise in wheat prices caused by the russia-ukraine conflict. the price increase of rice is lower than the increase in alternative staple foods such as bread, so people prefer rice when choosing staple foods.

in addition, affected by the depreciation of the yen, the number of foreign tourists received by japan has increased significantly, driving the growth of rice consumption. according to data from the japan national tourism organization, the number of tourists visiting japan in the first half of the year reached 17.78 million, setting a record high for a six-month span. according to estimates by the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of japan, from july 2023 to june 2024, assuming that each tourist consumes 78 grams of rice per meal and two meals a day, the demand for rice from tourists will reach 51,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous year (july 2022 to june 2023).

in addition, recently, japan issued a warning for a major earthquake in the nankai trough. in addition to water and emergency supplies, rice was also bought up in large quantities. in addition, the recent earthquakes in many parts of japan also prompted people to stockpile rice. in addition, the purchase restriction warning itself will cause panic among the people, leading to more consumers joining the rush to buy, further causing a shortage of rice.

however, kazuhito yamashita, a former bureaucrat of the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of japan, believes that the above reasons are not the main factors of rice shortage. yamashita pointed out in his column that "the fundamental reason for the rice shortage is the decline in rice production due to the reduction in rice planting area."

according to the latest data released by the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of japan, as of the end of june 2024, private rice stocks were 1.56 million tons, a decrease of about 20% compared with the same period last year, reaching the lowest level since statistics began in 1999.

in fact, the japanese government has been consciously reducing rice production for many years.

in order to prevent overproduction of rice and maintain rice prices, the japanese government began to implement the "anti-rice policy" in 1971. the policy limited the rice planting area to about 60% of paddy fields. the remaining rice fields were either converted to other crops or left fallow, and subsidies were given to farmers who switched to other crops. this policy was not abolished until 2018 under the leadership of the abe government.

however, kazuhito yamashita pointed out that the so-called abolition of the rice anti-counterfeiting policy during the abe administration in 2018 only abolished the rice production target, while subsidies for farmers still existed, so the so-called "abolition" was not thorough.

yamashita kazuhito said that under the strict long-term production reduction policy, japan is in a food insecurity situation. a little extra demand, such as an increase in inbound tourists, will lead to rice shortages and price increases. according to data provided by yamashita, only about 60% of rice fields in japan are currently being used, and the annual rice production is less than half of the peak period of 14.45 million tons.

in 2023, japan's rice production was 6.61 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, a record low.

currently, all sectors of japan are pinning their hopes on the new rice to be available in september. the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of japan said that as the new rice begins to circulate in the market, the rice shortage will gradually improve and supply will be restored.

kazutsugu oizumi, professor emeritus at miyagi university in japan, said continued high temperatures this summer could lead to higher rice prices in japan by this time next year.

in japan, rice is 100% self-sufficient. what deserves more attention than the "rice shortage" is the self-sufficiency rate of other foods in japan.

the food self-sufficiency rate refers to the proportion of local food production to food consumption in that year, and is an important indicator to measure a country's food security level.

according to the latest data released by the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of japan, japan's food self-sufficiency rate calculated by caloric value was 38% in fiscal 2023, maintaining the same value for the third consecutive year. the self-sufficiency rates of various types of food in japan in fiscal 2023 were: rice 100%, vegetables 76%, sugar 26%, wheat 18%, livestock products 17%, and oils and fats 4%.

the japanese government plans to increase its food self-sufficiency rate to 45% by the end of fiscal 2030. however, achieving this goal seems to be a long way off.

the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of japan stated that currently wheat, soybeans and other foods are mainly dependent on imports, and how to increase the self-sufficiency rate of these foods in the future is the key to achieving the above goals.

japanese media analysis believes that against the backdrop of the russian-ukrainian conflict, rising global grain and fuel prices, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, have led to rising import prices, thus reducing food self-sufficiency. because when calculating food self-sufficiency, it is necessary to subtract imported feed used in animal husbandry, so the surge in import prices has lowered the self-sufficiency rate.

in addition, japan's seeds and fertilizers are mostly dependent on imports. some experts say that if the unstable international situation leads to problems with food imports, japan may face a food crisis.