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the russian government announced on august 29 that russian president vladimir putin will visit mongolia next week. it is worth noting that mongolia is a member of the international criminal court (icc). although putin has frequently visited many countries recently, mongolia will be the first icc member country that putin will visit after the icc issued an "arrest warrant".

it is reported that the icc issued an arrest warrant for putin in march 2023. on this matter, russian deputy chairman of the security council medvedev stated at the st. petersburg international legal forum on may 12 last year that the international criminal court's previous arrest warrant against russian president putin has exacerbated tensions and created prerequisites for the outbreak of war.

at the same time, ukrainian president zelensky himself recently admitted that the situation on the front line near pokrovsk in eastern ukraine is "extremely difficult."

▲icc flag

ukraine: arrest him; kremlin: it's been agreed

experts say it will not have much impact on mongolia

according to the treaty of rome, once a person issued an arrest warrant by the icc sets foot on the territory of an icc member state, the country should execute the arrest warrant. however, it has been reported that the treaty also stipulates that under certain conditions (such as if "the arrest of the target person would violate the diplomatic immunity of a third party"), icc member states may not comply with the arrest warrant.

according to reports, the ukrainian ministry of foreign affairs has urged mongolia to arrest putin and hand him over to the icc. however, kremlin spokesman peskov recently announced that all the details have been agreed upon between russia and mongolia, and "president putin is not worried about being arrested. our two countries have a good relationship." according to another person familiar with the matter, mongolia has assured russia that it will not arrest putin.

former us diplomat david schaeffer believes that putin will not be arrested in mongolia. "his visit to mongolia may embarrass both ukraine and the icc." david added that mongolia may at most face some diplomatic pressure or sanctions.

however, tarita dias, a researcher at the institute for ethics, law and armed conflict at the university of oxford, explained that the troubles mongolia may face will not have much impact on it. "mongolia will certainly not arrest putin. even if mongolia faces legal problems or is sanctioned by some countries for this reason, it will not have a big impact on it."

in fact, similar situations have occurred before. in 2015, then sudanese president bashir ignored the arrest warrant issued by the icc and went to south africa, an icc member state, to attend a meeting. at the time, it was reported that the south african government had granted immunity to all participants in advance, and bashir was not arrested for attending the meeting in south africa.

why putin has been on frequent visits this year

analysis: russia hopes to strengthen ties with asian countries

▲russian president vladimir putin

in terms of diplomacy, putin has significantly increased the number of foreign visits this year compared to last year.

according to statistics, putin has visited seven countries this year, including china, belarus, uzbekistan, north korea, vietnam, kazakhstan and azerbaijan. in 2023, he visited a total of six countries. putin's number of visits abroad in the past few months has exceeded the total number of visits abroad in 2023. in addition, putin also met with visiting indian prime minister modi in russia not long ago.

some analysts say that in addition to maintaining trade relations with asian countries, russia also hopes to strengthen its ties with asian countries and send a positive signal on the international stage that the western policy of trying to isolate russia has failed.

another report pointed out that even though the russian side has stated that putin will not be arrested, the visit to mongolia is still putin's first "risky visit." sergei markov, a political adviser with close ties to the kremlin, analyzed that mongolia, located between china and russia, is more important when the united states threatens to sanction chinese companies related to russia.

at the regular press conference of the chinese ministry of foreign affairs on april 23 this year, some western media reported that the united states was drafting a draft of sanctions, threatening to remove some chinese banks from the global financial system. u.s. officials said they hoped that the measure would prevent china from commercially supporting russia's military production. in response, wang wenbin, then spokesperson of the ministry of foreign affairs, said that we firmly oppose the hypocritical practice of the united states adding fuel to the fire while shifting the blame to china. china's right to conduct normal economic and trade exchanges with all countries, including russia, must not be violated, and we will firmly defend our legitimate rights and interests.

kursk: russia and ukraine are still in a stalemate

pokrovsk: ukrainian army is in great difficulty

in the recent conflict between russia and ukraine, the two countries are still refusing to give up their territory on each other's land. some analysts believe that this is a game of "whoever blinks first loses."

on the one hand, it has been almost a month since the ukrainian army entered kursk, russia, and the ukrainian army has not yet withdrawn from russia. according to xinhua news agency, sharov, deputy director of the information policy department of the russian ministry of emergency situations, said at a press conference on august 30 that the ukrainian army is wantonly attacking civilians in the border areas of kursk oblast.

on the other hand, in the eastern battlefield of ukraine, due to the lack of ukrainian troops, the russian army is approaching pokrovsk, the "logistics hub" of the ukrainian army. according to the description of ukrainian military analyst alexander kovalenko, the current situation in pokrovsk shows that the ukrainian army's defense has "completely failed."

according to the report, even ukrainian president zelensky himself admitted that the situation on the front line near pokrovsk was "extremely difficult." ukrainian armed forces commander-in-chief sersky also admitted that moscow did not fall into the trap and that kiev's strategy in kursk failed to force russia to withdraw its troops from pokrovsk.

red star news reporter li jinrui compiled from global times and xinhua news agency (reporter bao nuomin)

editor yang ran responsible editor wei kongming