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the latest data from the china association of automobile manufacturers shows that from january to july 2024, my country's automobile exports maintained a good growth momentum, with 3.262 million complete vehicle exports, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%; and 708,000 new energy vehicles exported, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%.

however, it is undeniable that the environment for chinese automakers to go overseas has become more complex since 2024. against this background, how chinese automakers can better achieve global development and how the chinese auto industry chain can achieve international development have attracted much attention.

recently, a reporter from the daily economic news exclusively interviewed henner lehne, vice president of s&p global automotive vehicle and powertrain group. from porsche, csm worldwide to s&p global mobility, henner lehne has more than 20 years of rich experience in the automotive industry and has unique insights into the global automotive development landscape.

henner lehne told reporters that chinese automakers have made significant progress in the past five years with their outstanding innovation capabilities, superior product quality and excellent design. from the perspective of market size and product quantity, the development of china's new energy vehicle industry is currently in a leading position in the world. in his opinion, facing the current competitive landscape of the global automobile market, "the ultimate solution for chinese cars to go overseas is to rely on localization in the local market."

china's new energy vehicles are accelerating towards globalization

in the first half of 2024, 605,000 domestic new energy vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. china's new energy vehicle global market share reached 60%, and is accelerating its move towards globalization.

henner lehne said in an interview that in terms of market size, china's domestic new energy vehicle registration sales will reach 7.6 million in 2023, making it the world's largest single market. at the same time, as chinese consumers' demand for new energy products gradually increases, chinese brands have invested heavily in new energy vehicle technology and products, and the number of new energy vehicle products in the chinese market is far higher than any overseas auto market.

"last year, the global production of new energy passenger vehicles was about 15 million, of which domestically produced (new energy vehicles) were close to 10 million, and the second-ranked region (i.e. europe) had only 3 million. looking at the car companies, byd produced more than 3 million vehicles, and tesla, ranked second, produced about 1.8 million vehicles; in terms of regions and brands, the total amount of new energy vehicles in the chinese market is indeed in a leading position." said henner lehne.

according to statistics from s&p global mobility, starting from 2020, as chinese consumers' demand for new energy vehicles gradually increased, chinese brands invested heavily in advanced technologies such as power batteries, motor and electronic control, and intelligent networking, and continued to expand their market share through the launch of new energy vehicle products and continuous product iteration. in 2021, the sales volume of chinese brand passenger cars in the chinese domestic market reached 40.5%, and by the first half of 2024, this proportion had increased to 54.5%.

however, looking at the global market, china's new energy vehicles also face some uncertainties when going overseas. according to the latest data released by cui dongshu, secretary-general of the national passenger vehicle market information joint conference, in the first seven months of 2024, my country's cumulative exports of new energy vehicles were about 1.17 million, a year-on-year increase of 25%. however, during the same period, china exported only 28,000 new energy vehicles to the us and canada, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, accounting for only 2.4% of the total exports of new energy vehicles.

in henner lehne's view, chinese automakers face challenges in brand promotion and building a reasonable dealer and distribution network. for example, some current tariff issues have made the market environment for chinese cars going overseas quite difficult. therefore, s&p global mobility is relatively cautious in its forecast of the penetration rate of chinese automakers in the european and north american markets.

“production in the local market will become the mainstream of overseas exports”

henner lehne believes that the main purpose of a series of policies introduced by europe and the united states is to encourage chinese companies to build factories locally, thereby driving the development of the entire industrial chain and economy in the target market.

according to henner lehne, in recent years, chinese automakers have emerged as a new force in the electrification wave, and new energy vehicle technology has developed rapidly. this development situation has led european auto and parts factories to seek transformation. to this end, the european government hopes to attract chinese companies to invest in europe, not only to create jobs, but also to introduce china's complete industrial chain and technology, in order to consolidate the position of the automotive manufacturing industry as an economic pillar and cope with the challenges brought about by industry changes.

henner lehne believes that "the export of chinese electric vehicles should be a good choice and opportunity to make chinese brands truly international brands. however, due to the requirements of laws and regulations in the target markets, coupled with some geopolitical uncertainties, we believe that production in local markets will eventually become the mainstream, rather than focusing on exports."

in fact, according to an incomplete review by the reporter, as of now, geely auto, saic group, gac group, great wall motor, chery automobile, baic group and others all have factories overseas, and many car companies have expressed their willingness to build factories in europe.

"chinese automakers undoubtedly have excellent technology and products and are capable of having a significant impact on the global market, but this can only be achieved when they participate in global market competition with free trade as the primary principle," henner lehne told reporters.

looking ahead to the overseas market demand pattern of china's new energy vehicles, henner lehne said that the european market's acceptance of new energy should be second only to china. in addition, urban consumers in some markets in southeast asia and south america will also have some additional demand for new energy. for example, in southeast asia, chinese auto brands have huge market potential.

"in addition, with the economic development of major countries on the african continent, the good connections established by chinese companies with the african region will also help chinese automakers gain first-mover advantage in the african auto market," said henner lehne.

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