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"i didn't expect to encounter rice shortages in japan!" a chinese living in tokyo told yicai global. she recalled that supermarkets in tokyo and osaka seemed to have been out of rice since before august 20, and hokkaido only started recently, with no bags of rice in large supermarkets. "i wondered if i had looked at the wrong shelf at first."

another chinese in osaka said that it is not completely impossible to buy rice. for example, some small supermarkets still provide some stocks for nearby residents to buy every day, but the price is not cheap. the price of a 5-kilogram bag of rice has risen to 3,200 yen. "it has risen by at least 20%. it feels like the price has skyrocketed."

recently, topics such as rice purchase restrictions, price increases, and insufficient supply have frequently become hot searches on japanese social media. the latest data released by japan shows that in july this year, the country's rice prices rose by 17.2% year-on-year, the largest increase in 20 years. among them, koshihikari rice rose by 15.6% and polished japonica rice rose by 18.0%. as rice prices continue to rise, large supermarkets and rice stores in big cities are still facing a tight rice supply.

the severe rice shortage has been called the "reiwa rice riot" by the japanese media. however, in the view of wang yan, president of the japan enterprise research institute, what really impressed him was the "heisei rice riot" more than 30 years ago. in 1993, japan experienced a rare cold summer, which led to a rice shortage. "at that time, the japanese government released its reserve rice, but there was still a gap of nearly 2 million tons. long queues could be seen in front of rice shops every day." he recalled, "later, the japanese government unprecedentedly imported rice from neighboring countries to ease the tight market supply. later, the el nino phenomenon occurred in 1994, which led to a bumper rice harvest, and the 'rice shortage' was completely alleviated."

wang yan believes that the rice shortage in japan, which has reappeared after more than 30 years, has not yet reached the point of causing riots, after all, the japanese government has no plans to release its rice reserves. agriculture, forestry and fisheries minister tetsuo sakamoto also responded to the local government's request to release rice reserves at a press conference on august 27, saying, "this may have a negative impact on the supply and demand and price of rice in private circulation, and should be treated with caution."

curry rice cooking costs hit record high

the rising price and shortage of rice also affected rice-based foods such as onigiri and senbei, with prices rising by 5.7% and 16.1% respectively. at the same time, the cooking cost of curry rice, a common dish on japanese people's tables, also hit a record high.

on august 13, the imperial data bank of japan released the cost data for making a serving of curry rice in june 2024. the data showed that the price of rice was 97 yen, up 8 yen from the same period last year; the price of curry cubes was 25 yen, up 1 yen; the price of ingredients (such as carrots, beef, etc.) was 203 yen, up 20 yen; and the water and electricity fee was 4 yen, the same as last year. the total cost rose from 299 yen in june 2023 to 329 yen in june 2024, an increase of 30 yen, setting a record high.

imperial data bank predicts that the price of curry rice will hit a new high in july. in august, vegetable prices may be the same as in previous years, or even fall, but as rice and imported beef prices will continue to rise, the price of a regular curry rice is expected to remain high this summer.

a sushi restaurant owner in tokyo said, "rice shops said they can't hold on any longer and asked us to raise prices. rice prices have not risen in the past 10 years. if the purchase price does not drop, we may have to raise prices."

according to the latest data released by the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of japan, the market inventory of rice in japan was 1.56 million tons at the end of june, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the same period last year, the lowest value since comparable data was available. the survey results of the japan rice and grain merchants association also showed that about 85% of the rice sellers among the members of the association said that it was difficult to purchase goods, or even impossible to purchase goods.

why has rice become a "luxury" in japan today? regarding the current shortage of rice in japan, some analysts believe that the hot summer in the summer of 2023 caused rice to be affected by high temperatures, the amount on the market decreased, and the tight supply and demand caused prices to rise. in the summer of 2023, japan suffered extreme heat waves, and the average temperature set a record high since 1898. last august, in niigata prefecture, a rice-producing area in japan, 27 of the 28 observation points recorded the highest monthly average temperature in history. in addition, niigata prefecture also encountered three dry hot winds and drought problems. therefore, the continued heat wave not only led to a decrease in rice production, but also a decrease in the quality of rice. the "2023 global food crisis report" released by the food and agriculture organization of the united nations listed the impact of heat waves on agriculture in asia as one of the challenges.

while production is declining, japan's rice consumption has unexpectedly increased, which is also seen as one of the reasons for the recent shortage of rice in the market. due to the long-term aging population and low birth rate, japan's rice demand has decreased by about 100,000 tons each year in recent years. however, in the 12 months ending in june this year, rice demand increased by 110,000 tons to 7.02 million tons, the first increase in 10 years. eikawa eiichi, executive director of the japan rice and grain merchants association, believes that the prices of foods such as bread are rising. although the price of rice is also rising, the average increase is only about 10%, so people may be more inclined to choose rice.

at the same time, the influx of overseas tourists since last year has also increased rice consumption, and tasting japanese food is often the first choice. according to data from the japan national tourism organization (jnto), the number of tourists visiting japan in the first half of the year reached 17.78 million, setting a record for the six-month span. if nothing unexpected happens, the number of tourists visiting japan this year will exceed the annual record of 31.9 million set in 2019.

according to estimates by the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, from july 2023 to june 2024, assuming that each tourist consumes 78 grams of rice per meal and two meals a day, the demand for rice from tourists will reach 51,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous year (july 2022 to june 2023).

however, kazuhito yamashita, a former official of the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries and research director of the canon institute for global strategy, believes that heat waves and a surge in overseas tourists are not the root causes of japan's "rice shortage". he said that even if 3 million overseas tourists stay in japan for a week each month and eat rice for three meals a day like the japanese people, their consumption will only account for about 0.5% of total consumption, which has little impact. the same is true for weather factors. the data he provided showed that japan's rice harvest index in 2023 was 101, roughly the same as in average years; in contrast, the index was only 74 during the "heisei era rice riots" in 1993.

yamashita attributed the root cause of the "rice shortage" to the japanese government's long-term "anti-counterfeiting policy", that is, the regulation of rice production. "rice has long been the staple food of the japanese, and japan's rice self-sufficiency rate is almost 100%. but with the decline in population and the gradual shift of consumption habits to staple foods such as bread, japan's demand for rice has decreased." yamashita said, "in order to ensure the stability of rice prices, the japanese government has been implementing a policy of controlling the area of ​​arable land for more than 50 years, providing subsidies to rice farmers who switch to other crops such as wheat or soybeans. under the influence of this policy, japan's rice production has decreased year by year, and the rice variety breeding plan to increase the yield per unit area has also stagnated. therefore, under the strict regulation of the government, once the demand increases slightly, such as the current influx of overseas tourists, there will be a shortage."

the data provided by yamashita shows that currently only about 60% of rice fields in japan are being used, and the annual rice production is less than half of the peak period of 14.45 million tons. therefore, he suggested that the "anti- ...

regarding the prospects for solving the rice shortage and price increases, tetsushi sakamoto stated at the above-mentioned press conference that we are currently in a transition period before the new rice comes on the market, and rice stocks are relatively small. at the same time, there has been a phenomenon of people buying and hoarding rice to prevent earthquakes and typhoons. in addition, the impact of previous holidays has caused delays in logistics channels. therefore, the cause of the rice shortage is the result of a combination of factors.

he also called on consumers to respond rationally: "the new rice is growing well this year. the harvest time in some producing areas is about a week earlier than in previous years, and the delivery period is also expected to be advanced. the rice shortage is expected to gradually improve. i hope everyone will not panic and only buy the rice they need."

some chinese also showed reporters a message posted by the kyoto city government on social media, titled "regarding the shortage of rice supply, please stay calm!" the content reads: "due to the increase in rice consumption and families preparing for the earthquake, there is a shortage of rice supply in supermarkets and other places. we have also heard everyone's concerns, but the current domestic rice inventory level has been guaranteed, and new rice has also begun to be listed. please stay calm and consume rationally."

however, given that the weather in japan remains extremely hot this summer, heat damage has also occurred in the main rice producing areas in eastern japan, and next year's rice harvest may also be affected.

the latest developments released by the japan agricultural cooperatives (ja) on its official website on august 27 show that the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of japan is currently actively promoting the cultivation of high-temperature resistant rice varieties. however, there are currently no large-scale successful planting cases.

some japanese analysts have also warned that the shortage of rice in japan may come earlier than expected next year, and the rising trend of rice prices will continue. "even if the new rice is put on the market in large quantities, under the current high inflation, it remains to be seen how much the overall price of the rice market can fall after the new rice is put on the market."