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zou linhua

as a pillar industry of the national economy, real estate is related to the vital interests of the people and the overall development of the economy and society. therefore, promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market is both a development project and a livelihood project.

after the closing of the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee, the "decision of the central committee of the communist party of china on further comprehensively deepening reforms and promoting chinese-style modernization" (hereinafter referred to as the "decision") was officially released. while anchoring the goal of basically achieving socialist modernization by 2035, it also focused on deploying major reform measures for the next five years.

in terms of improving the system of protecting and improving people's livelihood, the decision proposes to accelerate the establishment of a housing system that promotes both renting and purchasing, and to accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. increase the construction and supply of affordable housing to meet the rigid housing needs of the working class. support the diversified housing needs of urban and rural residents. fully empower city governments to regulate the real estate market, formulate policies based on the city, and allow relevant cities to cancel or reduce housing purchase restrictions and cancel the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residences. reform the financing methods of real estate development and the pre-sale system of commercial housing. improve the real estate tax system.

in recent years, after a deep adjustment of the market, the reform of the real estate sector has also entered the "deep water zone". driven by the new quality productivity, the development of real estate in the future will also face the challenge of a new development pattern.

regarding the real estate industry, the "decision" takes into account both the current and long-term, and its content covers various fields such as housing system, market supply and demand, and regulatory policies. it will focus on improving the housing supply system, optimizing regulatory policies, and building a policy system including financial policies, land policies, and tax policies that are compatible with the new development model.

in conjunction with the decision, we believe that the high-quality development of china's real estate industry in the future will have the following important development trends and directions:

first, accelerate the establishment of a housing system that combines renting and purchasing, and build a new model for real estate development.

in terms of housing system and development model, the "decision" proposes to accelerate the establishment of a housing system that combines renting and purchasing, which makes the idea of ​​accelerating the construction of a new real estate development model clearer. we expect that this system will run through the entire cycle of the new round of real estate development.

the reason for such a judgment is that, on the one hand, the system will further eliminate the drawbacks of the past model of "high debt, high turnover, and high leverage", while insisting on combining the digestion of existing stocks with the optimization of incremental stocks. it is also of great significance to revitalize existing commercial housing and land resources and establish corresponding basic systems such as financing, finance, taxation, land, and sales.

on the other hand, the decision emphasizes "diversified" + "improved" housing demand, and requires the housing supply system to accelerate the transformation from the past single-track system to "market + security". combined with the recent government's overall research on digesting existing real estate and optimizing incremental housing policies and measures, we believe that the practice of purchasing inventory commercial housing for use as affordable housing may increase the future supply of affordable housing and accelerate its construction process to a certain extent.

second, build good houses with high quality and stable prices to meet people’s yearning for a better life.

from the perspective of real estate policy formulation, the future development model will focus on meeting the new demands and needs of the majority of residents for housing. for housing, in addition to ensuring delivery, policies must also consider quality and safety. only in this way can people live in a better quality, and can we build "good houses" that are green, low-carbon, smart, safe, and meet the new expectations of the people, and realize the transformation from "having a house to live in" to "living well".

third, reform the pre-sale system of commercial housing and improve the financing methods for real estate development.

for the financing and sales model of the real estate industry, it is a general trend to accelerate the reform of the pre-sale system and expand the development financing channels. with the change in the market supply and demand situation, the sales proportion of pre-sale houses has dropped significantly, and ready-made houses will gradually become the main body of housing sales. the ministry of housing and urban-rural development has also clearly stated that "ready-made houses can be sold under certain conditions." currently, many places across the country have piloted the sale of ready-made houses. in my opinion, promoting "guaranteed delivery of houses" through the sale of ready-made houses is conducive to promoting the resolution of real estate risks.

it should be noted that under the pre-sale model, the loan can be gradually repaid after the opening, and the bank's capital return speed is relatively fast. after the shift to the sale of existing houses, the use time of corporate development loans will be extended and the scale will also expand. in the future, policies in land transfer, planning and construction, and financial support need to be optimized simultaneously. for example, it can support the establishment of real estate investment funds, support real estate companies to raise funds and issue bonds through market-oriented channels, support the establishment of real estate trust investment funds (reits), promote the fourth generation of housing design, and gradually cancel the measurement of common areas.

fourth, further optimize real estate regulation policies and promote active real estate transactions.

as for real estate regulation policies, various regions are also continuing to optimize and adjust housing market policies in light of their own real estate market conditions. overall, these measures include relaxing home purchase qualifications, reducing social security years, further optimizing restrictive policies, and lowering interest rates.

at present, the relevant local restrictive housing purchase policies in second- and third-tier cities have been basically canceled. in the future, the purchase and loan restrictions in first-tier and popular new first-tier cities are expected to continue to be relaxed until they are completely canceled.

this means that the tax and fee gap between improvement demand and first-time home purchase demand will gradually narrow in the future, which will help support the release of improvement housing demand, boost buyers' confidence, and help maintain the medium- and long-term stability of the market.

more importantly, against the backdrop of an aging population and a slowdown in the growth of the urban population, establishing a new mechanism to link the elements of people, housing, land and money can not only ensure the stability of the real estate market in the medium and long term, but also avoid large-scale excess vacancy.

fifth, real estate tax and fee reform continues to advance, and the content of the reform will be more comprehensive.

the decision proposes to improve the real estate tax system. in the medium and long term, real estate tax legislation and reform will continue to advance, with the fundamental purpose of establishing a tax system that is compatible with the new model of real estate development.

as we all know, the real estate tax system does not specifically refer to the real estate holding tax system, but also involves multiple real estate-related taxes, including land value-added tax, deed tax, property tax, urban land use tax, value-added tax, corporate income tax, personal income tax, urban maintenance and construction tax, stamp duty, etc. the reform of the real estate tax system in the future will be more comprehensive.

we believe that an important reform direction for the future is to simplify and merge tax types, reduce double taxation, and lower transaction taxes and fees related to improvement needs with the goal of continuously improving residents' housing standards.

in addition to the above aspects, further accelerating the construction of the housing security system and expanding the coverage of affordable housing, especially improving the housing conditions of the semi-urbanized population, will also play an important role in improving people's livelihood, improving the quality of urbanization and expanding domestic demand.