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Author: Li Sijia

Editor: Du Yuxin

Editor: He Zengrong

Everyone is saying that new energy is the future of the automotive industry.

Whether it is the rising market share of new energy vehicles or the current development status of the industry's upstream and downstream, this can be seen. However, many fuel vehicles are still selling well, from entry-level family cars to mid-to-high-end cars, and then to luxury and super luxury cars. So, when will the era of full electrification arrive?

Maybe,If the normal development rhythm is followed, fuel vehicles will have their own place even in the next 10 or even 20 years.Even in the Chinese market, where new energy development is most vigorous in the world, fuel vehicles will occupy one-third of the market.

But this is only in terms of the normal development trajectory. However, there is a big hand that can't resist the industry's blueprint and continuously accelerate the development of the automobile market, thus bringing the era of electrification earlier.

If before this, the development of the new energy market was just a rapid evolution driven by policies, technological innovation and industrial upgrading, then after this, the "methods" to promote the development of the new energy market will be more radical.The node between the so-called "before" and "after" is that Hainan Province intends to legislate this year to promote the suspension of sales of fuel vehicles.

Hainan opens the ban on sales

Recently, Hainan Province proposed in the release of the "Hainan Province Clean Energy Vehicle Development Plan" and other policy documents that it has decided to completely stop selling fuel vehicles in 2030 to promote the development of clean energy vehicles.

At the same time, in order to ensure the smooth implementation of the plan to stop selling fuel vehicles, the Hainan Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology plans to initiate legislative research on the "Hainan Free Trade Port Regulations on Promoting the Development of New Energy Vehicles".The move aims to support the promotion of new energy vehicles through legislation.

To ensure the independence and impartiality of the research, Hainan Province will entrust a third-party organization to conduct a survey. The survey content will cover the development status of Hainan's new energy vehicles, the challenges it faces and the legislative needs. It will also analyze the difficulties, pain points and bottlenecks in the development of new energy vehicles, and put forward targeted suggestions and countermeasures to promote the popularization of new energy vehicles in Hainan.

In addition, the research will also include assisting in the submission of the "Hainan Free Trade Port Regulations on Promoting the Development of New Energy Vehicles", including draft annotations of the regulations, legislative explanations, compilation of regulations and review responses.

If the plan can be implemented, it means that Hainan will become the first province in the country to completely stop selling fuel vehicles.

"I didn't expect this day to come so soon." When the author looked through the online views on this matter, he saw that many netizens were very surprised in the comment section. They said that they had thought this day would come, but they never thought it would come so soon.

Why Hainan?

In terms of the production of new energy vehicles, Shenzhen (1.786 million vehicles), Shanghai (1.287 million vehicles), and Xi'an (984,000 vehicles) occupy the top three positions and are far ahead of other cities. So why was Hainan the first to legislate to ban the sale of fuel vehicles?

First of all, Hainan is the only province in China that is completely located in the tropical zone. Its climate features four unclear seasons, no extremely hot summers, no extremely cold winters, small annual temperature differences, and high annual average temperatures.This undoubtedly provides fertile ground for the development of new energy vehicles.

We all know that with the advancement of technology, new energy vehicles have achieved longer mileage by increasing battery energy density, optimizing vehicle energy consumption management, and adopting more efficient motors, control systems and charging technologies. Their mileage anxiety has been greatly alleviated in recent years. Many pure electric vehicles are marked with a range of 1,000 kilometers, and the range of plug-in hybrid models has exceeded 2,000 kilometers.

However, in winter, the cold north still has a serious discount on the battery life of electric vehicles. In many cases, a heavy snowfall can tear off the "fig leaf" of the battery life of new energy vehicles. The further north you go, the worse the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. I clearly remember that when I went on a business trip to Heihe last winter, I saw blue brands all along the way. I could count the new energy vehicles I saw on one hand in three days.

But this kind of anxiety will not occur in Hainan, where the annual average temperature is between 22.5℃ and 25.6℃.

Considering that Hainan is an island with a land area of ​​35,100 square kilometers, the one-way travel distance is relatively short, and today's mainstream new energy vehicles can easily travel around the island with a full charge. Coupled with the numerous charging facilities, it can be said that driving a new energy vehicle in Hainan does not worry about the mileage at all.

Next, as mentioned above,The intensive construction of charging facilities will provide safeguard for Hainan's new energy vehicles.

According to statistics, the ratio of new energy vehicles to charging piles in Hainan is about 2.5:1, achieving full coverage of charging infrastructure in townships. The average charging service radius in townships has been shortened to more than 20 kilometers, greatly improving the user experience of driving new energy vehicles in Hainan.

According to the development plan, Hainan plans to promote more than 500,000 new energy vehicles by 2025, with the proportion of new energy vehicles exceeding 60% and the overall vehicle-to-pile ratio below 2.5:1. By then, the charging experience of new energy vehicles will be further upgraded.

In addition, as a free trade port, Hainan must develop with tourism, service industry and high-tech industry as the pillars. In this case, advocating green economy can also attract more overseas capital investment. In addition, Hainan's own new energy supply model is relatively extensive, such as solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy, nuclear energy, etc., which have been maturely applied in Hainan.

All the above conditions provide Hainan with unique and inimitable conditions for the full development of new energy vehicles.

Hainan has lived up to expectations. Since 2016, it has introduced more than 40 supporting policies in various aspects such as R&D and production, purchase subsidies, operation, and charging infrastructure construction around the promotion of new energy vehicles. Hainan's policy incentives and constraint supervision system for the promotion of new energy vehicles is becoming increasingly perfect.

Data shows that in April this year, Hainan Province promoted 9,400 new energy vehicles; in the first four months, a total of 35,600 new energy vehicles were promoted, and new energy vehicles accounted for 52.59% of newly registered vehicles.

At the same time, as of the end of April this year, Hainan's new energy vehicle ownership reached 328,000, accounting for about 16% of the market. Among them, the top five cities and counties in terms of the ownership of new energy vehicles are: Dongfang 21.52%, Sanya 20.67%, Lingshui 20.10%, Haikou 16.89%, and Qionghai 13.86%, showing the characteristics of high ownership and uniform distribution.

As all provinces vigorously develop new energy, Hainan has become the province with the highest proportion of new energy vehicles. In the first half of this year, Hainan's new energy vehicles accounted for 56.8%, ranking first in the country, far ahead of Zhejiang's 50.5% and Guangxi's 50.3%.

This is also why Hainan wants to and dares to open the loophole of legislation to ban the sale of fuel vehicles.

Stopping the sale of fuel vehicles is not that simple

However, as a pilot province, Hainan has proposed that by 2025, the proportion of new and replacement vehicles in the public service and social operation sectors using clean energy will reach 100%; by 2030, the sale of fuel vehicles will be completely banned on the entire island.

It won’t be that easy to actually implement it.

First of all, while Hainan is vigorously promoting new energy vehicles, the number of gasoline vehicles in the region still occupies an absolute advantage.Data shows that as of the end of April this year, Hainan province had a car ownership of 2.045 million vehicles, of which 328,000 were new energy vehicles, accounting for only about 16% of the total.

Fuel vehicles, which account for more than 80% of the total number of vehicles, are still the main force in Hainan. This large volume will not turn around too quickly in the changing times. Fuel vehicles currently have good advantages in terms of industrial chain, vehicle maintenance, refueling efficiency is higher than charging efficiency, product stability and residual value rate. Therefore, it will take more time to promote the launch of fuel vehicles.

Therefore, as to whether fuel vehicles will be replaced by new energy vehicles, PetroChina also responded. PetroChina said that in the next ten years, fuel vehicles can continue to be used, while electric vehicles cannot replace fuel vehicles for the time being.

In addition, there are problems with new energy vehicles themselves that need to be solved urgently.

I believe everyone still remembers that during the Spring Festival holiday of the Year of the Dragon, new energy vehicle owners complained about the difficulty in getting ferry tickets to Hainan and the extremely bad experience.

This year, it was difficult to get ferry tickets out of Hainan Island, especially for new energy vehicles. Some car owners even waited for several days without getting a ticket, which made the owners of new energy vehicles from other places who drove to Hainan miserable. This matter quickly sparked heated discussions on the Internet.

The reason for this is that the Qiongzhou Strait Ferry stipulates that the number of new energy vehicles carried on each voyage shall not exceed 10% of the total, and the total number shall not exceed 18. At the same time, for safety reasons, new energy vehicles can only be placed at the fore and aft ends of the deck.

This regulation not only gives owners of new energy vehicles the bad experience of being treated differently, but also dramatically increases waiting time.One eyewitness said, "The time spent on the road both ways was more than 12 hours, which was a very bad experience."

This regulation, which affects the experience of new energy vehicle owners, will bring more negative emotions and bad experiences during holidays. It is also an urgent problem that needs to be solved in Hainan's process of vigorously developing new energy vehicles and promoting the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles.

Domestically, Hainan is the first province to take the lead in banning the sale of fuel vehicles; abroad, many countries have actually formulated clear policies to "ban the sale of fuel vehicles", but most of them have begun to regret it.

As the birthplace of the automobile in the era of internal combustion engines, Germany has previously set a ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030. Other countries, such as the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and France, have stated that they will ban the sale of fuel vehicles between 2030 and 2035. Under general consensus, at the beginning of last year, the European Parliament passed a motion to stop the sale of fuel engine vehicles in Europe in 2035.

However, the good times did not last long. Soon after the 2035 ban was passed, many countries "reneged". Then, many countries including Germany, the Czech Republic, Italy, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and others formed an "anti-ban" alliance to boycott the proposal.Their appeal is to provide an exemption for internal combustion engine cars that use electronic fuels.

It can be seen that the elimination of fuel vehicles is not a matter of one day or one night. Whether it is legislation to ban the development of internal combustion engines or to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, long-term and comprehensive preparations are needed, and the difficulties and obstacles involved must be properly handled to avoid bad experiences for car owners, market rejection, and even industry shocks caused by the promotion of electrification transformation.