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"Green-label hybrid" is hot-selling, the end of new energy is still gasoline

2024-08-22

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Introduction

Introduction

The market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded half, but is it time to be happy yet?

Author: Cao Jiadong

Editor: Du Yuxin

Editor: He Zengrong

In the first half of this year, no matter how much chaos there was in the entire automobile market, the price war was accompanied by the public opinion war, causing multiple troubles to the players, or the development cracks in the market itself made everyone deeply anxious, one thing is still very clear, while the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has been continuously improving, consumers' attitude towards new energy vehicles has changed greatly.

All of this has almost convinced us that the market transformation process is already moving forward at the speed we imagined. Especially in China, the perception that "new energy vehicles are the future" will only be deepened with each round of market replacement.

But having said that, as the entire new energy vehicle market begins to show signs of differentiation, we have to raise a new question: if pure electric vehicles are taken out of the new energy vehicle matrix alone, will things continue along this trend?

In short, although the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rising steadily, the sales growth rate of pure electric vehicles is somewhat different from this trend. The emergence of a large number of new hybrid vehicles has not only created a prosperous new energy market, but also seems to have caused the outside world to ignore the shackles of the future development of pure electric vehicles.

In the past July, the entire Chinese market sold a total of 878,000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 36.9%. This is true, but a closer look shows that the growth rate of pure electric vehicles lags far behind that of green-plate hybrid vehicles, which can only explain one thing: the hot new energy market in China has too strong a self-characteristic. Behind this brilliant performance, the increasingly realistic changes in the market are worth our deep consideration.

We have long believed that because of the industry's urgent need for electrification, Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers have long been at the top of the market, and consumers' understanding of electric vehicles far exceeds that of other countries. As new business models take shape, every step taken by China's new energy vehicle market will attract the attention of the entire industry.

Now it seems that this market may have just embarked on a development path with very Chinese characteristics. Whether it can transform perfectly and become a model in the global market as we imagined will take some time to evolve.

Market differentiation is becoming apparent

At present, the speed at which China's auto market is accelerating its engine reduction is very touching.

It is generally believed that as the auto market begins to be rapidly penetrated by new energy vehicles, and the market scale is heading towards the level of annual sales of more than 2,500 vehicles, China's new energy industry has entered a new stage of winning by scale. Everything happening in the market is telling us that the transformation center of the global auto industry is taking root in China.

Another thing is that when the leading domestic automakers always announce in their own way that China's automobile industry will be controlled by local companies, and on the other hand rely on the stick of three-electric technology to drive out those joint venture brands, we really have no reason to question the development of the new energy industry.

Since last year's Shanghai Auto Show, all foreign automakers have been unable to keep up with the pace of China's auto market. Almost no one would say that the future of China's auto industry will not be rewritten. However, today, when everything is developing in a positive direction, I don't know how to feel when I see the new energy vehicle market being supported by green-plate hybrid vehicles.

Of course, the slowdown in sales of pure electric vehicles did not come suddenly.

Not to mention how many new electric car manufacturers at home and abroad have been shut down this year.TeslaGiven that its sales growth rate has dropped from a peak of nearly 90% to around 40% from 2021 to 2023, Tesla has canceled plans to build factories and other investments in Thailand, Malaysia and other places this year. Even for the seemingly finalized plan to build a factory in Mexico, Tesla said it would postpone the decision until after the US election.

If Tesla, the industry leader, is still like this, then is there any pure electric car manufacturer that can be so powerful on its own? Presumably, the answer must be no.

In the first half of this year, the most eye-catching event in the pure electric vehicle market wasXiaomi Motors's entry.Xiaomi SU7As soon as it was launched on the market, it attracted consumers' attention, which once caused the delivery of new cars to fall into a difficult situation. It also strengthened our beautiful vision of the prospects of the pure electric vehicle market.

However, as data comes out one after another, when we try to look at the changes in the entire market rationally, I personally think that the hot sales of Xiaomi alone are still not enough to represent the development trend of this market.

In the past seven months, how deeply have manufacturers that only sell pure electric vehicles felt the pressure of slowing demand, not only from the "big electric car owners"GAC AionThe situation can be seen from the reality that Ideal suffered a Waterloo in its first electric car venture, the differentiated market performance of Huawei's extended-range hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles, and the fact that Huawei has always claimed to focus on pure electric vehicles but has made it clear that it will launch an electric hybrid flagship model next year.Zeekr, in fact, it is also explaining this problem very realistically.

Are pure electric vehicles really no longer viable? Not really. After all, the rapid growth in sales of electric vehicles in the past few years may have overdrawn the market in advance, and the ecological advantages built around electric vehicles cannot reach the vast majority of car users. These objective factors still exist today.

Moreover, you can also see clearly the current car consumption desire. Fewer people are willing to spend money to change cars. When they really have money to change cars, how to balance the enthusiasm for pure electric vehicles and the inherent advantages of green-plate hybrid vehicles is also a real test of users' wallets.

Green-brand hybrid is really good

Earlier this month, when the China Passenger Car Association data showed that the market penetration rate of China's new energy passenger vehicles in retail sales exceeded 50% for the first time, reaching 51.1%, and the year-on-year growth rate was greatly improved, many people in the industry were very excited. Everyone was cheering that the era of new energy vehicles has finally arrived.

In a broad sense, no one would think of refuting this trend. After all, the transformation of the automotive industry is a fact recognized by everyone. But looking back at the market trends this year, as the main force in the new energy vehicle market has become green-plate hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles have increasingly encountered development bottlenecks.

Not only that, you would think that this situation is only temporary, but reality has repeatedly told us that if we do not produce new hybrid or extended-range hybrid vehicles, many brands will lose great advantages and even lose the qualification to survive.

How popular are new energy vehicles with engines? You can see from the new power sales list released every week thatNIOApart from these, most brands rely on extended-range hybrid vehicles.Ask the world, dark blue,Lantu...Everyone is definitely in the first tier in terms of investment in this type of vehicle.

After nearly five years of market digestion, consumers have actually realized that since there is no difference in the support policies, it is far more practical to choose this type of new energy vehicle than to stick to pure electric vehicles.

Perhaps, if the energy replenishment system is further improved and charging piles are widely deployed, the disadvantages of pure electric vehicles will be greatly reduced. In addition, the multiple iterations of three-electric technology will greatly improve their range. However, from the perspective of car companies, once the market does not show the vitality and potential as imagined, the technical route can always be changed.

Even the China Passenger Car Association can point out that it is precisely because of the innovative development of plug-in hybrid technology by Chinese automakers that the technological breakthroughs in narrow plug-in hybrid and extended-range electric vehicles have been achieved, allowing China's plug-in hybrids to account for 78% of the world's plug-in hybrid market.

For any OEM that cannot meet its own development needs with pure electric vehicles alone, researching new energy vehicles with engines is indeed a matter of time, place and people.

Previously, except for the leading new energy vehicle companies,Leapmotor, have proved with real performance that if we want to reverse the decline of pure electric vehicles, we must come up with such products. In the future, no one can ignore the current market dividends and pretend to be noble.

In the past two days, as a typical representative,AvitaIt launched its new car Avita 07 equipped with Kunlun's extended-range technology to the market, and everyone noticed it.

No matter how much technical presentation is made to refine the product's advantages, the emergence of this car means that China's new energy vehicle market today needs more "green-plate hybrid vehicles" to accelerate the industry's electrification transformation, and Chinese consumers also need this type of vehicle that has both pure electric long-range and eliminates mileage anxiety.

In short, at this point, don’t underestimate the rapid progress in three-electric technology, which has given Chinese cars the opportunity to shake up the structure and development direction of the global automotive industry. After a brief period of market explosion, Chinese consumers’ demands for both, and more, will not be compromised because of the advantages of pure electric vehicles. Instead, they will become more realistic with the integration and innovation of technology.

Based on this background, compared with the industry confidence brought by the new energy market penetration rate exceeding half for the first time, the reason why pure electric vehicle sales have slowed down due to the large-scale entry of green-plate hybrid vehicles is undoubtedly more worthy of the entire industry's attention and careful consideration of future development plans.

"If a company does not have the ability to generate revenue and cannot make a profit, it will not go far. Capital cannot just tell stories and concepts, but must make a profit. Chinese automakers should reflect on themselves, prevent "involutionary" vicious competition, maintain the order of industrial competition, and safeguard the hard-earned industrial achievements."

With the development and penetration of charging piles, plug-in hybrid and extended-range electric vehicles can easily make up for the shortcomings of the hybrid system itself being less efficient than the gasoline-electric hybrid and carrying heavy and expensive batteries everywhere by simply charging occasionally. Moreover, the charging habit of plug-in hybrids will only become more and more common.

Compared with the sluggish electric vehicle market, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and mild hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) are gaining increasing market recognition.