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Reporter of China Business Network: Zhen Sujing Editor of China Business Network: Chen Mengyu

On August 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the basic situation of the national real estate market in July and the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in July.

From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 6087.7 ​​billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%; among them, residential investment was 4623 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.6%. The sales of newly built commercial housing was 5333 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.3%. In July, the real estate development boom index (referred to as the national real estate boom index) was 92.22, the highest value in the past six months.

Wang Zhonghua, chief statistician of the Urban Management Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the data and said that in July, the sales prices of commercial housing fell month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline slightly widened overall. Among them, the year-on-year decline in sales prices of second-hand housing in first-tier cities continued to narrow.

Xu Yuejin, deputy director of research at China Index Academy, said that the activity of new home transactions in July declined, showing the characteristics of the off-season. Overall, as the policy effect has weakened and the traditional off-season of the market has arrived, the new home market is still facing great adjustment pressure. In terms of second-hand housing, the second-hand housing market in core cities continued the trend of "trading price for volume", and the market transactions remained active.

The downward trend in housing prices continues

The downward trend in housing prices continued in July, but the decline in new and second-hand housing prices in second-tier cities narrowed.

Specifically, in July, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, the same as the previous month. The sales price of newly built commercial housing in second-tier cities fell by 0.6% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage point narrower than the previous month. The sales price of newly built commercial housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage point wider than the previous month.

In July, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage point wider than the previous month. The sales price of second-hand housing in second- and third-tier cities both fell by 0.8% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage point narrower than the previous month.

Xu Yuejin believes that the second-hand housing market in core cities is still in the process of expanding. The prices of old and dilapidated houses in some cities have been adjusted significantly, and the housing price-performance ratio is relatively high. Customers with urgent needs have begun to enter the market, becoming an important support for the activity of the second-hand housing market. However, the adjustment pressure in the new housing market may be difficult to change.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, new homes in second-tier cities face greater pressure.

Zhang Bo, director of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, believes that although the decline in second-hand housing prices is greater than that of new housing, this is driven by the "price-for-volume" policy of second-hand housing, and the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy in various places has not only stimulated the supply of the second-hand housing market, but also stimulated market demand. In contrast, in the new housing market, due to administrative factors such as price limits, although the decline in housing prices is controllable, the market sales speed has obviously slowed down.

Real estate development investment is still on the decline

On the supply side, real estate development investment is still on a downward trend, and under the low base effect of new construction starts, the cumulative year-on-year decline has narrowed for five consecutive months.

From January to July, the housing construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 7032.86 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4915.32 million square meters, a decrease of 12.7%. The newly started housing area was 437.33 million square meters, a decrease of 23.2%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 316.84 million square meters, a decrease of 23.7%. The completed housing area was 300.17 million square meters, a decrease of 21.8%. Among them, the completed residential area was 218.67 million square meters, a decrease of 21.8%.

In this regard, Xu Yuejin analyzed that it is mainly because the land shrinkage has not changed, real estate companies are more cautious in investment, and real estate companies are under financial pressure. The existing high inventory is still an important factor restricting the supply-side repair. In the short term, the scale of new construction is still consolidating at a low level, and real estate development investment may continue to decline, but with the continuous advancement of the project "white list" and "state-owned enterprise storage" work, it is expected to improve marginally.

In terms of funds in place for real estate developers, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that from January to July, funds in place for real estate developers amounted to 6190.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.3%. Among them, domestic loans amounted to 921.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.3%; foreign capital utilization amounted to 1.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 45.0%; self-raised funds amounted to 2205.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.7%; deposits and advance payments amounted to 1869.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.7%; and personal mortgage loans amounted to 874.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.3%.

In terms of real estate development investment, from January to July, the national real estate development investment was 6087.7 ​​billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% (calculated on a comparable basis); among them, residential investment was 4623.0 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.6%. The housing construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 7032.86 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4915.32 million square meters, a decrease of 12.7%. The newly started housing area was 437.33 million square meters, a decrease of 23.2%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 316.84 million square meters, a decrease of 23.7%. The completed housing area was 300.17 million square meters, a decrease of 21.8%. Among them, the completed residential area was 218.67 million square meters, a decrease of 21.8%.

Yan Yuejin, deputy director of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the new construction index has been narrowing for five consecutive months, which has a positive effect on understanding the subsequent stabilization of the index. This shows that after 34 months of adjustment, the risks of such indicators have been largely cleared and the foundation for stabilization is more solid.

Yan Yuejin said that the overall decline in the national housing completion area index has been curbed, and all regions should continue to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of houses. Recently, there have been quality problems with the houses delivered in some cities, and all regions are required to strengthen the quality of the work of ensuring the delivery of houses and do a good job in related work from the perspective of protecting the rights and interests of home buyers.

Shanghai's new and second-hand housing prices continue to lead the rise

Beijing and Shanghai have developed independent trends.

According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.5%, 0.8% and 0.9% respectively, while Shanghai rose by 0.2%. In terms of second-hand housing sales prices, Beijing remained unchanged, Shanghai rose by 0.1%, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.9% and 1.2% respectively.

Zhang Bo believes that new homes in first-tier cities are least affected by second-hand homes. According to the second-hand housing squeeze coefficient (the degree of influence of second-hand homes on first-hand homes) of 46 cities in July released by Anjuke recently, the average value is 0.54, an increase of about 4% from June. From the perspective of the squeeze intensity of cities of different levels, first-tier cities are least affected, with Beijing having the lowest score of 0.36. This also shows that the overlap of customer groups between first-hand and second-hand homes in Beijing will decrease in the future, and first-hand and second-hand homes are likely to develop their own independent market conditions faster.

Zhang Bo emphasized that what is worth paying attention to in the future is the impact of local storage on housing prices. Although this effect was not fully reflected in July, the storage actions in various places will continue to accelerate in the second half of the year, which will obviously reduce market supply. The contradiction between supply and demand will continue to ease, which will have a particularly obvious impact on the prices of new homes in first- and second-tier hot cities.

Xu Yuejin believes that as the impact of the high base number weakens in the second half of the year, the year-on-year decline in national new home sales is expected to continue to narrow. At the same time, the implementation of the state-owned enterprises' stockpiling policy is also an important factor in determining the pace of market recovery.

Daily Economic News