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Cailianshe News, August 15 (Reporter Li Jie)"In July, the decline in some of my country's real estate-related indicators continued to narrow, but at the same time, we must also see that most real estate indicators are still declining and the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment," said Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, at a press conference today.

On August 15, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that from January to July this year, the sales area of ​​newly built commercial housing decreased by 18.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from January to June; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 24.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points; the funds in place of real estate development enterprises decreased by 21.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points.

"In the next stage, we must implement the new policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in accordance with the spirit of the Political Bureau meeting, adhere to the combination of digesting existing stocks and optimizing new stocks, actively support the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, further do a good job in ensuring the delivery of housing, accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market." Liu Aihua said.

According to the latest published data, the sales prices of commercial housing in July continued to fall, and the number of cities where prices of new and second-hand houses fell month-on-month increased further.

Housing price data for 70 cities across the country released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in July 2024, the number of cities where new home prices rose month-on-month was 2, a decrease of 2 cities month-on-month; there were 66 cities with a decline, accounting for about 94%; in terms of second-hand home prices, there was only 1 city with a month-on-month increase, and the remaining 67 cities all saw a month-on-month decline.

"Judging from the housing price data, although the real estate market in various regions has recovered in July, the number of recovering cities is relatively small, and housing prices in many cities are still relatively weak," said Yan Yuejin, deputy director of the E-House Real Estate Research Institute.

In terms of housing prices, the month-on-month decline in new home prices in 70 cities in July 2024 was 0.65%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from the previous month; the month-on-month decline in second-hand home prices was 0.8%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous month.

"The bottom adjustment trend of housing prices has not changed in July, and the trend of exchanging price for volume is still there, but the overall month-on-month decline has continued to narrow slightly, which means that prices may enter a stable fluctuation range from a period of rapid decline." Guan Rongxue, senior analyst at Zhuge Data Research Center, believes.

From the perspective of cities of all levels, the month-on-month change in new home sales prices in first-tier cities was relatively stable in July, the decline in second-tier cities narrowed, and the decline in third-tier cities widened. Among them, the prices of new homes in first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities fell by 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.7% month-on-month, respectively, and the declines were the same, narrowed by 0.1 percentage points, and widened by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month, respectively.

It is reported that there are two cities with positive month-on-month growth in new home prices in July, namely Shanghai and Xi'an; among them, the month-on-month growth rate of Shanghai's housing price index has ranked first in the country for five consecutive months.

In terms of second-hand housing, the month-on-month decline in second-tier cities in July widened, but the month-on-month decline in second-tier and third-tier cities narrowed. Among them, the prices in first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities fell by 0.5%, 0.8% and 0.8% respectively, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage point, narrowing by 0.1 percentage point and narrowing by 0.1 percentage point respectively compared with the previous month.

Among them, Shanghai's second-hand housing prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month, leading the growth for two consecutive months; while Beijing's second-hand housing prices turned from a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in June to a flat level.

Zhang Bo, director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, believes that among first-tier cities, Beijing and Shanghai have developed independent trends. Both first-hand and second-hand housing prices in Shanghai have risen, and the rise in second-hand housing prices coupled with high transaction volumes in July shows that the market's resilience is constantly strengthening. In Beijing, second-hand housing prices have shown signs of stabilization, and the policy effect has begun to be released.

In fact, since July, regulatory authorities have continued to introduce policies to stabilize confidence in the real estate industry. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee emphasized that relevant cities should be allowed to cancel, adjust or reduce housing purchase restrictions; the Political Bureau meeting proposed to implement new real estate policies and actively support the purchase and storage of commercial housing; the central bank lowered the 1-year and 5-year LPR by 10 basis points each, to 3.35% and 3.85% respectively, further reducing the cost of home buyers.

However, judging from the performance of the new home market in July, there has been no obvious positive changes in transaction volume and transaction price for the time being, and market expectations remain weak.

"As the current market transaction momentum is still insufficient and the supply and demand relationship has not been significantly improved, it is expected that housing prices will continue to fall in the short term, and the downward trend may stabilize," said Guan Rongxue.

"In the short term, the pace of housing system reform and policy optimization is expected to accelerate further in the second half of the year. City-specific policies will be further implemented, local governments will gain more regulatory autonomy, and policies on both the supply and demand sides of core cities may still be optimized in the future. In the second half of the year, as the impact of the high base weakens, the year-on-year decline in new home sales nationwide is expected to continue to narrow. At the same time, the implementation of state-owned enterprises' storage policies is also an important factor in determining the pace of market recovery." said Xu Yuejin, deputy director of research at China Index Academy.