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This morning, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest 70-city housing price index. The data showed that in July, the sales price of commercial housing decreased month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline slightly expanded overall. Among them, the year-on-year decline in the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities continued to narrow.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, believes that the housing price index in July showed a slight recovery trend for two consecutive months, which fully demonstrates that the policies are positive and effective, but also requires that subsequent easing policies continue to be strengthened.

Prices fell month-on-month and the year-on-year decline widened slightly

The sales price of commercial housing fell month-on-month.In July, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, the same as the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.5%, 0.8% and 0.9% respectively, and Shanghai rose by 0.2%. The sales price of newly built commercial housing in second-tier cities fell by 0.6% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage point narrower than the previous month. The sales price of newly built commercial housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage point wider than the previous month.

In July, second-hand housing sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage point wider than the previous month. Beijing remained unchanged, Shanghai rose by 0.1%, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.9% and 1.2% respectively. Second- and third-tier cities both fell by 0.8% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage point narrower than the previous month.

The year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales prices has slightly widened overall. Among them, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 4.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 3.3%, 9.9% and 8.0% respectively, and Shanghai rose by 4.4%. The sales prices of newly built commercial housing in second- and third-tier cities fell by 4.8% and 5.8% year-on-year respectively, an increase of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month respectively.

In July, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities fell 8.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell 7.2%, 5.6%, 12.4% and 9.8% respectively. Second- and third-tier cities' second-hand housing prices fell 8.2% and 8.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

Shanghai continues to lead the new home market

In terms of new home prices, there were two cities with positive month-on-month price index growth in July, namely Shanghai and Xi'an. Shanghai has been the first in the country in terms of month-on-month price index growth for five consecutive months.

Obviously, Shanghai's housing market demand and fundamentals are good. From the perspective of housing demand, due to the further relaxation of housing purchase policies, the scale of potential housing demand is still good, and the willingness to buy is relatively strong. At the same time, from the perspective of urban development, Shanghai is a city with a relatively good overall economic situation in the country, which supports the further healthy development of the real estate market. Observing the Shanghai market, new housing projects in the urban area are basically still selling well, especially some luxury housing projects that are sold out quickly after opening, which shows that purchasing power is relatively strong.

From the perspective of most cities, the number of cities with rising new home prices in July has decreased from 4 to 2. Obviously, although the real estate market has recovered in various places, the number of cities that have recovered is small. In many cities, prices are still showing signs of weakness amid the contradiction between supply and demand. Various places are confused about the source of market demand, and it is recommended to continue to explore new market demand.

In general, the price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities across the country in July showed three characteristics:

First, the month-on-month housing price index showed a slight improvement, indicating that the policies are positive and effective, and that efforts are continuing to be made to reduce housing costs and stimulate housing demand.

Second, considering that the year-on-year decline is still expanding, subsequent housing purchase policies need to continue to be strengthened, especially the need to explore housing purchase demand from multiple angles.

Third, first-tier cities should play a good demonstration role. Judging from the recovery trend of this round of real estate market, such large cities need to set a better example and truly drive the positive development of national market expectations.

Second-hand housing prices fall

Judging from the second-hand housing price index in July, with the recovery of second-hand housing transactions in core areas of core cities, the previous trend of rapid decline in housing prices has slowed down.

According to the data, the second-hand housing price index of 70 cities across the country increased by -0.8% month-on-month and -8.2% year-on-year in July. The second-hand housing price index showed a positive narrowing trend compared with June. Yan Yuejin believes that this is related to the recent slight recovery of second-hand housing transactions in some cities.

It is worth noting that the year-on-year decline in new home prices in first-tier cities has narrowed for two consecutive months. From the month-on-month growth data of housing prices in first-, second- and third-tier cities in July, they were -0.5%, -0.8% and -0.9% respectively. The year-on-year growth rates were -8.8%, -8.2% and -8.1%. Obviously, although second-hand housing prices in large cities are falling, after 15 consecutive months of deep adjustments, the room for decline has begun to become limited. This is also why we need to make it clear that the window period for picking up bargains in second-hand housing in large cities has begun to open.

Of course, the number of cities with rising second-hand housing prices is still small. In terms of month-on-month indicators, only Shanghai has increased, and in terms of year-on-year indicators, all have fallen. However, this is basically in line with the supply and demand relationship of second-hand housing, that is, second-hand housing itself is in a continuous and comprehensive price adjustment stage, and the decline itself is also the result of the continuous adjustment of supply and demand.

Looking ahead, the second-hand housing market has entered a stage of slight recovery from deep adjustment, which shows that the policy is effective and that the adjustment of the real estate market is sufficient. Yan Yuejin believes that the full adjustment of prices has created better conditions and foundations for a new round of recovery, especially for second-hand houses in good school districts and good apartment types, which are more likely to recover first. All regions should transform the price drop into the advantage of "cheap housing prices" and actively encourage all kinds of social capital to acquire second-hand houses to promote the supply and demand relationship of second-hand houses to become more reasonable.

Editor: Peng Bo

Proofreading: Ran Yanqing

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