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In May this year, Hainan Province optimized and adjusted the control measures for passenger car ownership. After the application for purchasing an ordinary passenger car is approved, it can be directly registered and licensed. With this relaxation, there is one less city with restrictions on car purchases. At present, only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and other regions in the country have not completely lifted restrictions on car purchases.

At the beginning of this century, the number of cars in China's big cities increased rapidly, and the imperfect public transportation led to a sharp contradiction between the surge in motor vehicles and the carrying capacity of roads. After 2010, strict purchase management began to be implemented, temporarily relieving the accumulation of contradictions and leaving time for policy follow-up.

After a ten-year transition period, the 2020 "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Term Goals for 2035" clearly proposed to "promote the transformation of consumer goods such as automobiles from purchase management to usage management", which has attracted attention and expectations from all parties.

A few years have passed. Has this "transformation" been completed? The result may not be satisfactory. The shift from "purchase management" to "use management" is an important governance transformation to stimulate automobile consumption demand, and it also urgently needs supporting policies and support from all regions. This will obviously be welcomed by automobile manufacturers and car buyers, but it will pose a new test for urban governance.

Cheng Shidong, director of the Urban Transportation Center of the Institute of Comprehensive Transportation of the National Development and Reform Commission, told China Newsweek that in the game between stimulating consumption and easing urban traffic pressure, "lifting purchase restrictions" is not easy. Is the time ripe to lift the car purchase restrictions? How can the purchase restrictions in megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai be relaxed and implemented smoothly? How can the most difficult parking space problem be solved after the purchase restrictions are lifted? China Newsweek conducted an exclusive interview with Cheng Shidong on related issues.

Cheng Shidong. Photo/provided by the interviewee

Is the time ripe for cancellation?

China Newsweek: In June this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and five other departments jointly issued a document, which explicitly proposed encouraging cities with car purchase restrictions to relax restrictions on vehicle purchases. Compared with the beginning of the restrictions, the carrying capacity of urban roads and public transportation systems are more complete. Is it time for most cities to relax car purchase restrictions?

Cheng Shidong:In fact, the purchase restriction policies in many cities have in fact "failed". For example, Hangzhou and other places have basically broken the total volume control by not restricting the purchase of new energy vehicles and relaxing the restrictions on non-local vehicles entering the city center or main roads. These changes are not necessarily a bad thing, because they reduce the resistance to completely abolishing the purchase restriction.

As a short-term policy, it is very necessary to implement restrictions on driving and purchase of cars in a specific period. More than ten years ago, the urbanization process in China accelerated, cars quickly entered families, and public transportation was still relatively weak. The construction of the infrastructure and service system of the public transportation system was not a one-day job. At that time, restrictions on driving and purchase of cars were a way to exchange time for space and create conditions for the development of public transportation and green travel in cities.

So, are we doing well enough to lift the purchase restrictions? There are two aspects to this question.

First of all, urban public transportation has indeed been greatly upgraded and improved in the past decade, and rail transportation is also developing rapidly. However, judging from the usage, the attractiveness and competitiveness of public transportation are still not satisfactory. There are two main reasons: First, urban public transportation has yet to be improved. For example, mid-distance transfers and connections at both ends are still not smooth, and it is very crowded during peak hours in the morning and evening, and the riding experience is not good. Second, competitors are too strong. Electric bicycles are absolutely dominant in small and medium-sized cities, accounting for more than 1/3 of total travel, 2.5 times that of public transportation, and 3 times that of private cars. In some large cities, it is also close to 1/4, slightly lower than public transportation, but more than private cars. Especially within the 8-kilometer travel range, the utilization rate of electric bicycles has surpassed all other means of transportation with an absolute advantage.

Secondly, from the perspective of green travel data, the annual passenger volume of conventional public transportation (buses/trams) began to decline after reaching more than 70 billion in 2014, and the epidemic accelerated its downward trend, while the annual passenger volume of rail transit was growing rapidly before 2019, and has remained basically stable since then. It is not difficult to find that the total amount of public transportation is declining, its proportion in the entire urban transportation is lower than expected, and its dominant position is still not ideal.

China Newsweek: The original purpose of car purchase restrictions was to slow down the rapid growth of cars in cities, ease traffic pressure and control environmental pollution. After more than a decade of practice, have these goals been achieved?

Cheng Shidong:It should be said that it has not been fully realized. Environmental improvement is still relatively effective. Purchase restrictions have controlled the total amount and encouraged more purchases of new energy vehicles through policies, gradually reducing the use of gasoline vehicles in cities. Overall, the proportion of green travel has increased, and the effect of traffic pollution control is relatively obvious.

From the perspective of managing congestion, as the number of cars in cities increases, the congestion index in most cities across the country has increased, but it has remained relatively stable, far lower than the growth rate of cars, and has not deteriorated significantly, indicating that management has achieved certain results. The number of cars is actually increasing rapidly, while congestion is relatively stable.

Starting from April 10, 2016, people lined up to buy the motor vehicle license quota bidding documents at the national auction service point at Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium. Photo/Visual China

More by parking means

To regulate car ownership and use

China Newsweek: Will relaxing or canceling the purchase restrictions stimulate a short-term surge in car sales? Will it exacerbate traffic congestion?

Cheng Shidong:At present, the purchase restrictions are mainly for gasoline cars. Due to reasons such as range anxiety, it is more likely that a family will choose a gasoline car as their first car, and usually only choose an electric car when buying a second car. However, due to the relatively loose purchase policy of new energy vehicles in cities with purchase restrictions, many people who have just purchased new energy vehicles have chosen "green license plates" out of necessity. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in these cities is not naturally formed. Whether the lifting of purchase restrictions will bring about a large amount of consumption in the short term may depend on how many of the car purchases are for the first car of the family.

The purpose of purchase restrictions is to solve traffic congestion, and the starting point of lifting purchase restrictions is to stimulate consumption. As long as we can do a good job of management in advance, prevent possible problems and conflicts, and avoid excessive congestion after lifting restrictions, it is okay for car sales to grow rapidly. There is another possibility. When people find that parking is becoming more and more difficult and expensive, and license plates are no longer a scarce resource, consumption may become more rational.

China Newsweek: The government has clearly stated that it will “promote the transformation of consumer goods such as automobiles from purchase management to use management.” How can this transformation be achieved?

Cheng Shidong:The introduction of cars into families has greatly improved and enhanced the quality of life. To manage traffic congestion is not to treat cars as a scourge, but to encourage more people to choose public transportation when road resources are limited, thereby improving travel efficiency.

Congestion usually occurs during peak hours in the morning and evening. The key factor affecting urban traffic is "car use" rather than "car ownership". To solve the congestion problem, comprehensive measures are needed. On the one hand, public transportation should be improved and green travel should be promoted. On the other hand, the use of cars should be restricted.

Restricting the ownership and use of cars is not just about limiting purchases and driving. I think another more effective and important measure is parking. We have not used parking properly, so the easier measure is to use administrative means to limit driving and purchases. In fact, parking is an economic measure and is also very effective.

Parking spaces in urban residential areas and their surroundings are used for parking at night. We call them basic parking spaces. The number of such parking spaces affects the ownership of cars. When you drive out, you can find parking spaces in shopping malls, office buildings, and on the roadside. We call them travel parking spaces. The number of such parking spaces affects the use of cars. To regulate the ownership and use of cars, you only need to control the number of these parking spaces and let the market set the price. Under the condition of supply exceeding demand, the price will definitely increase. If the price is high, people may not buy cars and drive them.

For example, Hong Kong has a permanent population of more than 7.5 million people, but only has less than 600,000 cars. The number of cars per thousand people is only about half of the average level of mainland cities and 1/4-1/3 of that of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Hong Kong has neither purchase restrictions nor driving restrictions. This is because Hong Kong achieves this through parking. Hong Kong has very few parking spaces, and under the premise of being very few, it is completely market-oriented.

Parking fees in Hong Kong are high, and parking spaces are even more expensive, at least two to three million Hong Kong dollars, and even up to six to seven million Hong Kong dollars, which is more expensive than the car itself. In other words, as long as the number of parking spaces is strictly controlled and then the market sets the price, the parking space will be in short supply and the price will naturally rise, thus limiting the use and ownership of cars.

As purchase restrictions are relaxed, we need to gradually cultivate the concept of "parking space" among urban residents. Once you buy a car, you can no longer leave the pressure of parking to society. In the long run, we should not use total volume control as the main means, but should choose more economic means to solve the congestion problem from the perspective of use.

"China Newsweek": What difficulties are there in the transition from purchase management to usage management?

Cheng Shidong:In terms of parking management, the most common complaint now is "parking is expensive and difficult". The question is, are there really too few parking spaces now? In Hong Kong, there is one parking space for every 7-9 ordinary commercial housing units, and in public rental housing, which is equivalent to affordable housing in the mainland, there is one parking space for every 20 to 30 units. In comparison, the parking space ratio in the core urban areas of mainland cities is much higher than that in Hong Kong. The problem is that there was no strict management before.

In fact, judging from the number and the indicators of the construction, the number of parking spaces in the central urban areas and core areas of our big cities is not less than that in Hong Kong, but the problem is that they were not managed well before. You have 10 parking spaces, but now people have bought 15 or even 20 cars. The child has been born, and you have to take care of him. Especially for the basic parking spaces in old communities, there are no conditions for strict law enforcement now, but for travel parking spaces, we have the conditions for strict law enforcement.

When people say "parking is difficult", it is mainly because there are not enough basic parking spaces for families around residential areas, which affects car ownership. When the existing parking needs cannot be met, strict law enforcement is indeed difficult. However, urban travel parking spaces that affect car use are not in short supply. Parking spaces in office buildings, shopping malls, roadsides and other places can be strictly managed. First, we need to rectify the disorderly parking, and then introduce market mechanisms to regulate car usage through price fluctuations, thereby solving congestion.

Specifically, we should strictly control the number of parking spaces for travel and moderately meet the basic parking space requirements. Because cars are indeed an important aspect of improving the quality of life, we should try our best to meet the needs of ordinary people to own cars and guide them to use cars reasonably. For example, when commuting to work in a megacity, our road resources do not allow everyone to drive, but at other times, you can basically use it because our road resources allow it.

How to change the long-standing concept of "low-price parking" is the biggest challenge in the transition to usage management. Another practical challenge is that in the city center, a large number of free parking spaces exist within government agencies and institutions. How to promote the marketization of parking fees for this part?

"China Newsweek": Is there a need for legislation related to parking management?

Cheng Shidong:To solve the parking problem, marketization and legalization are the only way. Legalization includes legislation and law enforcement. Compared with legislation, inadequate law enforcement is a more urgent problem. Behind the vicious circle of "illegal parking leads to parking difficulties, and difficult parking leads to illegal parking" is inadequate law enforcement. Although the "Road Traffic Safety Law" has provisions for illegal parking and the penalties are reasonable, the scope and degree of law enforcement are far from enough. If illegal parking is only punished once for ten times, it is easy for people to get lucky. Cultivating users' awareness of compliant parking requires strict law enforcement. We cannot engage in mobile warfare, but must fight a protracted war.

A smart multi-story parking garage in Shenzhen in November 2023. Photo/Visual China

The specific time for lifting the purchase restrictions should be announced

"China Newsweek": In the past decade, due to the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, the number of cars owned in many cities has increased rapidly. Can the transition from purchase restrictions to usage management be done earlier?

Cheng Shidong:It is not too late. The main problem of deregulation is that the basic parking spaces are even more insufficient. As mentioned earlier, there is no condition for strict enforcement of the basic parking spaces. After the purchase restrictions are lifted, more cars will come out, and this contradiction is even greater. For example, there are 100 parking spaces in this community, and now there are 150 cars. And it is not possible to strictly enforce the law. After the purchase restrictions are lifted, 50 more cars may come, and the number will become 200, which cannot be effectively controlled. If there are conditions for strict enforcement, these 50 cars cannot be bought. The current problem is here. From the perspective of car ownership, after the purchase restrictions are lifted, if there is no condition for strict enforcement of the basic parking spaces, the contradiction of basic parking spaces will be exacerbated. This problem cannot be solved. This is what I think is the biggest problem facing the current deregulation.

Therefore, given the current difficulty in solving the parking problem in old residential areas, increasing the number of new cars purchased will make our future work too difficult and costly. So I think it is a more ideal way to enforce the law first, so that the people can have a sense of punishment for violations, and then relax the restrictions.

"China Newsweek": At present, many cities have optimized and adjusted their purchase restriction policies, but is there still a gap with social expectations?

Cheng Shidong:The purchase restriction has been implemented as an emergency measure for more than ten years, which is a clear sign of the problem. As a short-term policy, the implementation period should be clearly defined and the time for canceling the purchase restriction should be announced. On the one hand, it can guide the public to form reasonable expectations and release irrational car purchase demand. On the other hand, it can also force the relevant government departments to work backwards and do all the work that needs to be done.

"China Newsweek": When exploring and implementing the gradual relaxation or cancellation of purchase restrictions, we must not adopt a "one-size-fits-all" approach. How should local governments optimize policies based on local conditions?

Cheng Shidong:The purchase restriction policy can be relaxed first in the outskirts of cities, where the population density is low and the parking space supply is relatively sufficient, and the basic conditions for parking management and strict law enforcement are in place. When relaxing the purchase restriction standards and increasing the quota for passenger cars, it is not recommended to allocate the quota to all regions in the same proportion according to the previous lottery method. The policy can be biased towards groups with greater needs or areas with low current car ownership.

At the same time, the attractiveness and competitiveness of public transportation should be improved. For example, direct buses should be opened in passenger flow corridors according to commuting needs, and the right of way should be appropriately transferred to ensure the continuity of bus lanes and improve public transportation efficiency.

"China Newsweek": While lifting the purchase restrictions, what supporting measures need to be added, or what shortcomings need to be addressed?

Cheng Shidong:Traffic congestion control requires comprehensive measures, but this does not mean that all possible means should be used. Parking management is currently the most effective means of controlling congestion. When parking management fails, we can consider measures such as increasing congestion fees. In fact, if parking management can be done well, after the purchase restrictions are lifted, the traffic restriction policy can also be tried to be cancelled.

Published in the 1152th issue of China Newsweek magazine on August 12, 2024

Magazine title: Cheng Shidong: The key to influencing urban traffic is car use rather than car ownership

Reporter: Li Mingzi

Intern: Xiang Meilin

Editor: Min Jie