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Since 2024, the overall real estate market has remained at a low level.

CRIC data showed that the overall transaction volume in 30 key cities in the first seven months was 72.29 million square meters, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 36%. At the corporate level, the top 100 real estate companies had a cumulative performance of 2130.9 billion yuan in the first seven months, a year-on-year decrease of 37.5%, with the decline narrowing by 2 percentage points.

In this context, the market differentiation in different cities and regions has further emerged, among which the second-hand housing market is significantly more active than the new housing market. Through the market transaction structure in the first half of the year, we found that different cities have different performance characteristics.

Among them, transactions in some cities are concentrated at both ends of the market, one end is the middle and high-end, and the other end is "old, broken and small", and there is a clear differentiation between the two groups of people. Shanghai is a typical example.

Overall, the current market is mainly dominated by self-residence, and demand has returned to "products" and "cost-effectiveness". For home buyers, "wanting both" is the norm. For companies, the key is how to create projects with composite advantages such as core areas, strong product power, and high cost-effectiveness.

Since 2024, the mid- to high-end market has been noticeably active, with projects selling well in many cities, such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Shenzhen, and Xi'an.

In February, the Xi'an Xinda Yanxiyunzhu project was launched on the market and sold out immediately after its launch, becoming a new benchmark for the quality residential market in the southern part of Xi'an.

In March, China Overseas Shunchang Jiuli, located in Shanghai Xintiandi, was launched for sale. The sales volume of 19.65 billion yuan on the same day set a new record for the launch of real estate in China.

On June 27, Greentown Huafa Jinling Yuehua, with a starting price of 13.2 million yuan, opened suddenly at night. 174 families competed for 116 apartments, and a lottery was held on the first opening.

On June 28, Shenzhen Zhonghai Shenwan Jiuxu project, located in Hongshuwan, Nanshan District, achieved sales of 10 billion within three hours of opening. This property is also the first residential land in Shenzhen Bay Super Headquarters Base in nearly 22 years.

From the sales data of key cities, we can also find that in the first half of 2024, the trend of larger new homes and improved products remains unchanged, and the proportion of large-area product transactions in key cities generally increases.

CRIC data shows that in the first half of 2024, the market share of products with an area of ​​140 square meters or more in key cities will increase significantly.Among them, the 140-160 square meter area segment increased by 2 percentage points from 7% in 2019 to 9%, and the transaction volume of more than 180 square meters increased from 4% in 2019 to 8%, which was the highest increase among all area segments.The proportion of transactions over 180 square meters in Shanghai and Hangzhou exceeded 10%.

From the perspective of hot-selling items, the main reasons are as follows:No.The first is the core area.Most of them are improvement housing, mainly located in the city center, and the supply is relatively scarce;The second is the strong product strength and brand appeal.Relying on the soft power of the developer's brand reputation and product strength, some projects have achieved impressive sales performance;No.The third is the price advantage.

Hot sales are not a single factor, and projects with multiple advantages are favored by homebuyers. For example, the Zhonghai Lingdi Jiuxu project in Shanghai, which was launched on the first day of sale, took less than 90 minutes to clear the market, and the average price of the project was 146,100 yuan per square meter. On the one hand, this is because the project is located in the Xuhui Riverside area, where the supply is very scarce. On the other hand, there is a significant price inversion with surrounding projects. For example, the Yunjin Dongfang project in the same area currently has a second-hand housing listing price of around 200,000 yuan per square meter, with an inverted price of up to 50,000 yuan per square meter.

Looking at Shanghai, which has been the most active in the mid-to-high-end market since 2024, CRIC Research Center has conducted in-depth interviews with multiple groups of customers through real estate companies, intermediaries and institutions. It was found that the main force of home buyers in the current mid-to-high-end market has shifted from the "post-60s/70s" to the "post-80s/90s". Most of the funds for this group of new rich still come from their parents, but they have full choice and have specific preferences for location, house type, circle, and feng shui.

For example, Ms. Zhou, 33, worked in a foreign company for many years after returning from studying abroad. She has lived and grown up in Huangpu District since she was a child. She and her parents currently have two houses in Huangpu District, one for her own use and one for rent. She has a deep affection for the area in the city center, and most of her childhood classmates and friends also live nearby. Seeing the renovation of the core area of ​​the city and the rapid changes in the urban landscape, her parents have always wanted to upgrade the rental house. This year, Ms. Zhou plans to get married and start a family. "After marriage, I plan to upgrade and replace it with a luxury house in the same block. The location and school district meet the requirements, and it is convenient for life and close to my parents."

If we divide luxury homes by total price, the profile of luxury customers with a price of more than 50 million is mainly private business owners and their "second generation". The "second generation" basically has a background of studying abroad, and the highest proportion of enterprises is from Zhejiang, followed by Jiangsu and Anhui. They prefer core areas with stronger value preservation, such as: The Bund, Xintiandi, and Lujiazui, and have a certain brand loyalty. For example, the repurchase rate of the second phase of Sunac Bund One Courtyard reached 20%.

Mr. Gao, 26, just returned from studying in the UK. He used to live with his parents. His parents offered to buy him a house. He was attracted by the core location, and did not care much about the house type, orientation, and community greening. "For me, the location is a social need. I can enjoy all the facilities in the city center when I go out. In addition, I don't like the decoration of each house to be exactly the same. I hope that the developer can provide customized decoration standards, respect individual needs, and even customize the fragrance."

The customer profile of luxury homes worth 30 million to 50 million yuan is more diverse, including young entrepreneurs, senior executives of enterprises and institutions, "local tycoons" who have been relocated, and wealthy families with a certain amount of wealth accumulation. This customer group is more sensitive to the total price and area, and is more willing to choose the area where they live or work.

Mr. Song, 53 years old, currently works as a senior executive in a well-known manufacturing company in Shanghai. He currently owns a residential property in Shanghai. In the past few years, he has accumulated a certain amount of funds through investment and work. He is relatively conservative in asset allocation. Mr. Song believes that luxury homes in Shanghai are relatively high-quality assets, which can be "offensive and defensive" in the future and are also a guarantee for his children. With the increase in the supply of luxury homes in Shanghai, he intends to convert the accumulated cash into real estate, and his target is a large flat within the inner ring road.

In addition to the mid- to high-end markets, the transaction volume of "old, dilapidated and small" properties in some core areas of cities has increased again.

CRIC data shows that the changing trend of the second-hand housing transaction structure is significantly different from that of new homes, and small-area products below 80 square meters are the main force in second-hand housing transactions.

Taking Beijing as an example, the current active buyers of second-hand houses are mainly those who buy one-bedroom and two-bedroom houses for the first time or for the first time, accounting for 75% in total. The second most active buyers are those who buy three-bedroom houses for the first time, accounting for 22%.

Especially after Beijing released the 430 new policy, the enthusiasm and activity of the rigid-demand customer group to enter the market have increased. The transaction proportion of customers with a price below 3 million has increased by 3 percentage points, and the transaction proportion of customers choosing housing with an area of ​​less than 60 square meters has increased by 2 percentage points.

Another example is Shanghai. Based on the cross-analysis of the number of second-hand houses viewed and the total price range after the 527 new policy in 2024,The customer activity in the total price range of 2-6 million is relatively high, accounting for 57% of the viewing volume, and about 50% of this customer group is interested in properties outside the outer ring road, with obvious rigid demand attributes.

From the perspective of transaction structure,The first is the “old, dilapidated and small” houses in the core area, which can achieve a balance between work and life.Especially since the sector is close to surrounding industrial clusters and has mature development, old and dilapidated houses in the sector are the first choice for low-budget people.Next are the five new cities.Due to its planning and price advantages, it is still the mainstream choice for buyers with urgent housing needs.

Mr. L, who had rented a house in Shanghai for ten years, successfully bought an old, dilapidated and small house in Shanghai this year. He had previously rented a house near Baoshan Dahua, where his company was also located. He chose to buy a house this time because he did not want to endure the troubles of renting a house anymore, and on the other hand, he became eligible to buy a house after the new Shanghai 527 policy. In the end, he chose a two-bedroom apartment of more than 60 square meters with a total price of less than 3 million yuan.

Mr. H also became eligible to buy a house after the 527 new policy. He had been living in Huaqiao before. He just sold his house in Huaqiao this year and is looking for a house in Shanghai. His budget is also around 3 million for a second-hand house. He is currently comparing the old, dilapidated and small houses in the city and the second-hand houses in Anting.

The reasons for the current increase in second-hand housing transactions in these cities are mainly due to two aspects. On the one hand, the price sensitivity of the rigid-demand customer base is relatively high. Under the current market environment, second-hand home owners have begun to adjust their expectations and lower their listing prices, resulting in a surge in listings. The number of new listings in different cities has remained at a high level.

On the other hand, the price of second-hand houses is much lower than that of new houses.According to CRIC monitoring data, the price gap between first-hand and second-hand housing in 14 core cities has expanded to more than 10,000 yuan per square meter by the end of June 2024. The price drop of second-hand housing is significantly higher than that of new housing, and customers have a wider range of choices.At the same time, second-hand houses have advantages such as “what you see is what you get”, the supporting facilities have become mature and complete, and there is no delivery anxiety, so they are more popular among customers with urgent needs.

In general, the current home buyers in some cities are mainly divided into two ends: on one hand, there is the high-end market, and on the other hand, there are second-hand houses with low total price and small area.

From the perspective of the high-end market, the demand for improvement and replacement in core urban areas is the largest category.Among them, a considerable number of people with ample budgets and strong purchasing power have been holding on to their money for many years, just waiting for higher quality luxury housing projects in the core areas of the city.

From the perspective of the low-end market, "low total price and high cost performance" are its core features.A large part of them are eligible to buy houses due to the relaxation of restrictive policies, such as in Shanghai and Beijing, so the "get-on-the-home" housing type has become their first choice.

In addition to the typical cases in Beijing and Shanghai, where transactions are concentrated in the "high-end" and "total price around 3 million",There are also some urban residents who buy houses mainly for basic needs.

Typical representatives are Tianjin, Wuhan and Zhengzhou. Whether it is new or second-hand houses, the main total price range is concentrated below 2 million yuan, and the transaction share is more than 50%.Due to the similarities in the transaction structures of second-hand and new homes, the overall trend is that new homes in the rigid demand sector are shrinking, while second-hand home transactions are increasing, and there is a trend of "one rising and the other falling" in the new and second-hand housing sectors.

We believe that the current market has basically returned to the demand for self-occupation, and homebuyers make multi-faceted considerations when choosing a project.Companies not only need to face competition from the new housing market, but also face challenges from second-hand houses sold in previous years.To this end, real estate companies not only need to upgrade their marketing methods, but also need to attract buyers' favor by innovating in apartment design and other aspects.