Sales of new energy vehicles surpassed fuel vehicles for the first time. Has the domestic automobile market reached a turning point?
2024-08-12
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At 17:00 on August 8, the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association released an analysis of the national passenger car market in July 2024. According to the data, the national passenger car market had a retail sales volume of 1.72 million vehicles in July this year.
Among them, the retail sales of traditional fuel vehicles were 840,000 units, down 26% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month. The sales of new energy vehicles were 878,000 units, up 36.9% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 51.1%, up 15 percentage points from the same period last year.
The above data shows that in today's automobile market, new energy vehicles have become the first choice of most consumers. So, why do the domestic sales of new energy vehicles exceed those of traditional fuel vehicles that have been developed for a hundred years?
The Invisible Hand
The main and fundamental reason why the sales of new energy vehicles can surpass those of traditional fuel vehicles is that the market recognition is high enough.
The rapid iteration and upgrading of technology is the ultimate weapon for new energy vehicles to win the market.
Due to the natural advantages of electric motor drive, the acceleration of new energy vehicles has long become a must-go track for major car companies. The fastest acceleration from 0 to 100 km/h for new energy vehicles priced at 200,000 to 300,000 yuan is basically within 5 seconds. Even if the price drops to the 100,000 yuan range, the acceleration performance of various new energy vehicles is basically within 10 seconds. The Xiaomi SU7, which costs less than 300,000 yuan, can accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in 2.78 seconds. In the field of traditional fuel vehicles, this performance is at least at the level of a "million-level luxury car".
In addition to accelerating this native advantage, the 20 years of technological accumulation and iterative development of new energy vehicles have reached a new height. Among domestic new energy vehicles, each household has its own unique skills.
Whether it is BYD's super hybrid DM-i, which has been updated to the fifth generation, or Geely's vast architecture, Thunder Hybrid, or Ideal's luxury smart cockpit, NIO's battery swap, and Hongmeng Intelligent Driving series' autonomous driving, they all represent the determination of major new energy vehicle manufacturers to compete in the battlefield, and each has its own core consumer groups and supporters.
The segmentation of the new energy vehicle field can more accurately find the pain points of consumers in car use, giving car owners a more personalized car experience. If you want to pursue the ultimate cost-effectiveness, BYD may be the best choice. If you want luxury, intelligence, and to meet the needs of the whole family, then you might as well take a look at Ideal and Wenjie. In addition to pursuing more technology and energy saving, you also want to have a certain driving experience, perhaps Geely and Zeekr are also good choices...
In addition to technology, new energy vehicles also have more comfortable configurations than traditional fuel vehicles. While many traditional fuel vehicles are still using mechanical instruments, traditional modes, and even ACC adaptive cruise control is optional, domestic new energy vehicles have already taken off. In the "100,000-level" new energy vehicles, L2.5-level automatic driving has long become standard, and 8155 chip car systems, voice assistants, and adaptive headlights are common. Even the air suspension that was once only seen in fuel vehicles above 500,000 yuan has now been brought down to 200,000-level models by new energy manufacturers.
The technology, configuration and comfort are there, but what else do new energy vehicles have? The answer is economy.
Whether it is pure electric or hybrid, new energy vehicles have stronger driving economy than traditional fuel vehicles. In recent years, with the complex changes in the external situation, international oil prices have continued to fluctuate, while electricity prices have been relatively stable. In terms of the current peak electricity consumption in summer, the fast charging price of public charging piles is basically 1.4 yuan to 3 yuan per kilowatt-hour, and the slow charging price is generally below 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour. The price of home charging piles is even lower. And because new energy vehicles are generally equipped with heat pump air conditioners, they can be turned on at will in hot summer, and there is no need to worry about energy consumption.
In fact, the continuous expansion of China's new energy vehicle production and sales to the point of surpassing fuel vehicles is not only the inevitable result of more than 20 years of development and accumulation, but also an important means to achieve the "dual carbon" goal.
According to a report released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), automobile exhaust emissions are one of the main sources of urban air pollution, and the promotion of new energy vehicles can significantly reduce exhaust emissions, improve air quality, and promote the improvement of the urban ecological environment.
The booming development of China's new energy vehicle industry and consumers' recognition of new energy vehicles are also based on their responsibility and commitment to environmental protection and sustainable development.
The Visible Hand
The reason why domestic sales of new energy vehicles surpass those of traditional fuel vehicles is inseparable from the support and guidance of national policies.
As early as 1992, Qian Xuesen suggested that the country carry out research and manufacturing of electric vehicles; in 2001, electric vehicles were included in the "863 Plan"; in 2009, the "Automotive Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" was released, which clearly put forward the development goals of the new energy vehicle industry and proposed the implementation of a new energy vehicle strategy; in 2014, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles"; in 2020, the General Office of the State Council issued the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)".
On July 25 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on "Several Measures to Strengthen Support for Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in". In terms of automobile scrapping and renewal, the subsidy standard for eligible automobile scrapping and renewal was increased from the previous 10,000 yuan subsidy for the purchase of new energy passenger cars and 7,000 yuan subsidy for the purchase of fuel passenger cars to 20,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan respectively, which is more than doubled. The implementation of the new policy of trade-in has received widespread attention from all walks of life.
In addition, the real money investment such as "cars going to the countryside" and "new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy policy" are also the main factors for consumers to choose new energy vehicles. From the perspective of consumers, the purchase tax required to buy a fuel vehicle of about 180,000 yuan is more than 16,000 yuan, and the overall price is about 200,000 yuan. Buying a new energy vehicle of the same 180,000 yuan, this tax is exempted, saving nearly 10% from the perspective of car purchase.
In addition to policies such as subsidies and purchase tax exemptions that truly save money for consumers, there are other policies that influence consumer choices.
As the number of cars owned in China's first- and second-tier cities continues to grow, urban traffic pressure continues to increase, and traffic management departments are increasingly strict with "blue license plates". In Beijing and Shanghai, if you want to buy a traditional fuel car, you may need to start preparing for the lottery three years in advance, but there will be no such concerns when buying a new energy vehicle.
Moreover, many large and medium-sized cities have already implemented traffic restrictions, which has a greater impact on traditional fuel vehicles. New energy vehicles are generally not included in the restrictions, which can better facilitate consumers' daily use. This is also the point that many consumers in large and medium-sized cities value most.
“The future is here”
Since the "lower price of electricity than oil" in the first half of the year, the competition between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles has entered a white-hot stage. With the continuous advancement of AI technology and the continuous development of autonomous driving technology, the competition between major automobile manufacturers in technology and cost will be more intense in the future. The commercial application of Baidu's driverless car "Carrot Run" has also given the public a newer and more comprehensive understanding of the development of new energy vehicles.
From the data, we can easily find that all the car companies with rising and steady sales are basically the ones that attach great importance to the development of new energy vehicles. Whether it is BYD, which has abandoned fuel vehicles and fully adopted new energy, or Geely and Chery, which have gradually shifted their focus to new energy vehicles, or Ideal Auto, the leader of new car-making forces, their success is obviously inseparable from the excellent performance of new energy models.
As the new energy vehicle market expands, the related industrial chain will also be reshaped. In the future, automakers will accelerate their shift toward the new energy vehicle sector and invest more resources in technology research and development and market promotion. The market share of traditional fuel vehicles will continue to shrink and may eventually be completely replaced by new energy vehicles. Fields such as battery manufacturing and charging infrastructure will have greater room for development, while the industrial chain related to traditional fuel vehicles may face pressure to transform or decline.
From a global perspective, the retail sales of new energy vehicles exceeded those of traditional fuel vehicles for the first time, which is a landmark event for the booming new energy vehicle industry in China. This is by no means a "mutation" or an "isolated case". It may mean that my country's auto sales market has finally crossed a historic turning point, and the future of new energy vehicles has arrived.
(Dazhong News reporter Su Yuepeng)
