What does North Korea’s move toward Russia mean for Mongolia’s transport network?
2024-08-06
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Authors: Sumiya Chuluunbaatar is a non-disciplined researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences. She is a Mongolian economist and international affairs expert. Khurelbaatar G is the co-founder of the Mongolian Institute of North Korean Studies, whose research focus is on Mongolian-North Korean relations.
Compiled by: Qi Zhiye, PhD, School of Marxism, Lanzhou University
Increased cooperation among China, Russia, and North Korea could resolve the Tumen Corridor dilemma and provide Mongolia with historic access to new ports.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Pyongyang after 24 years attracted widespread attention. International news headlines focused on the signing of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between North Korea and Russia by Putin and Kim Jong-un, the most important and far-reaching agreement between Russia and North Korea since the end of the Cold War, which further strengthened the relationship between Russia and North Korea. The two sides also signed an Agreement on the Construction of a Tumen River Highway Bridge involving China, Russia and North Korea.For a long time, due to complex reasons from all sides, including historical issues and the constraints of current geopolitical factors, the strategic value of this river has not been fully realized.The Tumen River originates from the Changbai Mountains on the Sino-North Korean border, flows from south to north through the four Chinese cities of Helong, Longjing, Tumen, and Hunchun, as well as Ryanggang Province, North Hamgyong Province, Rason, and Hassan District of Russia's Primorsky Krai, and flows into the Sea of Japan at the Russian-North Korean border. The main stream is 525 kilometers long, the Sino-North Korean boundary river is 510 kilometers long, and the Russian-North Korean boundary river is 15 kilometers long. The Tumen River was an inland river in China before the 15th century, and it became a boundary river between China and North Korea only in the middle of the 15th century. As the only channel for China to enter the Sea of Japan, the Tumen River was ceded to Russia through the Treaty of Aihui and the Treaty of Beijing under the threat of military force from Tsarist Russia from 1858 to 1860, and China lost its right to go to the sea.In 1991, China and the Soviet Union signed the "Agreement on the Eastern Section of the Sino-Soviet Border", stipulating that the Soviet side agreed to Chinese ships (Flying the Chinese flag) The Tumen River is open to the sea. In 1992, China resumed the right to access the sea along the Tumen River with the approval of both countries. However, due to the low height of the Russian-North Korean railway bridge (Only 7 meters) and siltation of the river, only small boats of less than 300 tons can pass through, and the Russian side also put forward harsh conditions, allowing only seasonal fishing boats to go out to sea and prohibiting commercial ships from going out to sea.During Putin's visit to China in May 2024, the "Joint Statement on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination in the New Era" between China and Russia mentioned that "the two sides will hold constructive dialogues with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on the sailing of Chinese ships through the lower reaches of the Tumen River". In June, during his visit to North Korea, Putin announced that a new cross-border highway bridge over the Tumen River would be built as a replacement and supplement to the existing "Russian-North Korean Railway Bridge". Whether the existing railway bridge will be rebuilt and elevated, or abandoned, remains to be seen.Fangchuan Village, Hunchun City, Jilin Province, overlooks the Russian-North Korean Friendship Bridge on the Tumen River and the Sea of Japan in the distance. IC PhotoWhat does all this mean for Mongolia?Some of the contents of the 2024 "Russian-North Korean Treaty" are similar to the 2019 "Russian-Mongolian Treaty". In 2019, Mongolia hoped to elevate its Mongolian-Russian relations, which have been stagnant for nearly 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, to a higher level to balance its rapidly growing relations with China. At present, compared with Mongolia-China relations, Mongolia's wishes have not been fully realized.On the one hand, Russia's political and security influence on Mongolia is increasing compared with the past. Russia aims to contain, restrict and control Mongolia's "third neighbor" diplomacy, especially after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which was affected by the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia. On the other hand, Mongolia's economic and trade relations with Russia remain unchanged. But the Mongolian people are not very satisfied with the long-term unbalanced trade relations between Mongolia and Russia.Against this backdrop, new breakthroughs in trade and cross-border bridges among China, Russia and North Korea could have a significant impact on Mongolia, especially access to North Korean ports via the long-planned “Two Mountains” railway.Choibalsan-Arshan Railway (Two Mountainsrailway) is a China-Mongolia cross-border railway that will be built soon, connecting Arxan, Inner Mongolia, China and Choibalsan, Eastern Province, Mongolia (ChoibalsanAs early as the late 1980s, Jilin Province proposed the idea of building the China-Mongolia Railway. In the early 1990s, the two-mountain railway was put on the agenda again in the United Nations Development Program's promotion of cooperative development in the Tumen River region, and this proposal was also supported by relevant departments of the State Council of China.According to China's preliminary plan around 2015, the two-mountain railway is 476 kilometers long and the total investment is expected to be 14.2 billion yuan (Approximately US$2 billion), including 20 stations, 80,000 square meters of factory buildings, 25 bridges and 445 meters of culverts. The railway has a cargo capacity of 15 to 25 million tons per year, an annual rate of return of 8.1%, and an investment payback period of 14.8 years. From exploration, design to construction, it is expected to take about three years to complete. The Outline for the Construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor envisions connecting Mongolia with ports in Russia and North Korea, including plans for the "Two Mountains Railway".However, due to the weak economic strength of the Russian Far East and Baikal region, the eastern provinces of Mongolia, China's Jilin Province and the eastern Inner Mongolia region, the Two Mountains Railway project has not been completed due to insufficient resources, financial resources and freight capacity. Accelerating railway construction is of great significance to the current cross-border economic cooperation in Northeast Asia. The construction of the Two Mountains Railway can consolidate the Tumen River International Transport Corridor, from Chita, Russia to Choibalsan, Eastern Province, Mongolia, to Hunchun, Jilin Province, China, and finally to Rajin Port, North Korea (Rajin Port）。Now, the situation seems to be developing in a favorable direction. Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the relationship between Russia and China has been warming up, bilateral trade has increased year by year, and the amount of transit goods has increased. The existing regional transportation systems such as Erenhot, Manzhouli, and Suifenhe have bottlenecks and deficiencies, and new transportation corridors need to be built. The new corridor may pass through Mongolia: either from Chita, Russia, through Mongolia to ports such as Jinzhou and Dalian in Liaoning Province, China, or from Chita through Choibalsan and the Tumen River Corridor in Eastern Mongolia to North Korean ports.This would be the fruit of more than 20 years of dialogue. Around 2000, during a meeting of the Consultative Committee between the DPRK and Mongolian governments, DPRK representatives proposed that Mongolia be allowed to invest and cooperate in the Rason Special Economic Zone and use North Korean ports.Gombojav Zandanshatar) visited North Korea and inspected the operation of the Rason Special Economic Zone and Rajin Port. Subsequently, the North Korean government expressed its willingness to facilitate Mongolia's use of Rajin Port and requested the establishment of a Mongolian trade, service and tourism representative office in the Rason Special Economic Zone. Subsequently, Mongolian Deputy Minister of Roads, Transport, Construction and Urban Development A. GonsukhAmarjargal Gansukh) signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the Joint Use of Rajin Port with North Korea in Pyongyang.From February 22 to 25, 2015, then North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Su-yongRi Su Yong) visited Mongolia. During the visit, one of the important issues discussed by both sides was Mongolia's export of coal to third countries through North Korean ports. At that time, media reported that in 2015, Mongolia would transport 25,000 tons of coal to Rajin Port. Specifically, the coal would be transported to North Korean ports via the Mongolian-Russian joint venture Ulaanbaatar Railway.In 2018, Mongolia and Russia signed the Agreement on Cross-Border Railway Transport. According to the agreement, Mongolia can enjoy stable tariff discounts when transporting its export goods to third countries through Russian territory for 25 years, and Mongolia's mineral resources can be transported to North Korean ports through Russian railways on preferential terms and exported from there to China, Japan, South Korea, India and other countries. However, the agreement was not implemented. In 2022, during the COVID-19 pandemic, when North Korea completely closed its border, then Mongolian Minister of Transport Development Lu Hartel (Luvsan Khaltar) said that North Korea's Rajin port remains a possible option for Mongolia's future exports. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, there was no opportunity to hold talks with the North Korean side. He remains optimistic that once the epidemic improves, Mongolia can cooperate with representatives of the Russian and Chinese railway departments to achieve Mongolia's goal of entering North Korea's Rajin port.As China, North Korea, and Russia consolidate their trilateral transportation network, the time is ripe for Mongolia to achieve its long-term goals.The Eastern Economic Forum will be held in Vladivostok from September 3 to 6, 2024. The theme will be strengthening cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region and the development of the Arctic and the Far East. Given Russia's close cooperation with China, Russia's improved relations with North Korea, and Putin's visit to Pyongyang, we may see high-level leaders from East Asian countries visit Vladivostok to attend the Eastern Economic Forum. Mongolian President U.S. President Hun SenUkhnaagiin Khurelsuh) may attend the Eastern Economic Forum to discuss advancing this transport corridor. He may even visit Pyongyang to meet with Kim Jong-un to strengthen bilateral cooperation, especially Mongolia’s use of North Korean ports. So how the situation will evolve in the future remains to be seen, but analysts should keep a close eye on the construction of cross-border transport networks in Northeast Asia.
