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With the continued improvement of the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, the second-hand housing market in more key cities has also been warmed up and thawed. On August 5, the monitoring data of Zhuge Data Research Center showed that in July 2024, 120,316 second-hand residential houses were sold in the 14 key cities monitored, an increase of 0.26% month-on-month and 42.84% year-on-year. In terms of listing volume, the number of second-hand residential houses listed in the 14 key cities monitored in July was 2.29 million, a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month, and the overall listing volume turned from rising to falling. Under the tone of the destocking policy, the number of second-hand housing listings fell from a high level, with marginal improvement.

Second-hand housing transaction volume in July increased by 42.8% year-on-year

The second-hand housing transaction volume in July remained stable compared with that in June, showing a substantial increase year-on-year, up more than 40%. According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Data Research Center, 120,316 second-hand residential units were sold in the 14 key cities monitored in July 2024, up 0.26% month-on-month and 42.84% year-on-year. In total, 705,358 units were sold in the 14 key cities from January to July 2024, down 3% from the same period last year.

Wang Xiaoqiang, chief analyst of Zhuge Data Research Center, analyzed that the Politburo meeting in July proposed actively supporting the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, and combining policy measures to digest existing stock and optimize incremental growth. In the future, the policy side will continue to maintain a loose supportive tone, and restrictive policies will gradually withdraw from the stage. It is expected that the transaction volume of second-hand houses will continue to maintain the current transaction level, and prices will continue to fall in the short term.

In terms of cities, among the 14 key cities monitored in July, the transaction volume increased month-on-month, with 10 cities seeing a month-on-month increase and 4 cities seeing a month-on-month decrease. Year-on-year, except for Foshan, the transaction volume in other cities increased to varying degrees. In terms of cumulative year-on-year growth, as of July, the cumulative year-on-year growth of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Xiamen exceeded that of the same period last year.

Looking at specific cities, Dongguan, Chengdu, Suzhou, Dalian and Shenzhen ranked in the top five in terms of month-on-month growth in July. After Beijing's "June 26 New Policy", 15,575 second-hand houses were sold in July, up 3.9% month-on-month and 60.3% year-on-year. Judging from the monthly data this year, Beijing's transaction volume exceeded 15,000 units in July, a new high since March 2023. Shanghai sold 19,000 units in July, which was a 24.9% decrease from 26,000 units in the previous month, but it was still at a historical high. As time goes by, the policy effect in Shanghai is weakening, and the cumulative transaction volume in Shanghai has surpassed the same period last year.

Inventory pressure marginally improved

Monitoring data from the Zhuge Data Research Center show that in July 2024, the number of second-hand residential listings in 14 key cities monitored was 2.29 million, a month-on-month decrease of 0.8%. In Wang Xiaoqiang's view, the overall listing volume of cities monitored in July turned from rising to falling. Under the tone of the destocking policy, the number of second-hand housing listings fell from a high level, with marginal improvement. From the absolute value of the listed houses for sale, it is still at a historically high level. The Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed to support the acquisition of existing houses for use as affordable housing, which injected confidence into the market. It is expected that the subsequent stock of listed houses will continue to improve.

Monitoring data from Zhuge Data Research Center shows that the second-hand housing sales cycle in key cities in July 2024 is 22.5 months, a month-on-month decrease of 4.9% and a year-on-year increase of 46%. It is expected that the second-hand housing market will continue to accelerate, the market sales cycle is expected to continue to decline, and the pressure on housing sales will be relieved.

In terms of the number of listings for sale in various cities, the number of listings for sale in 7 of the 14 key cities increased month-on-month in July, while the number of listings for sale in 7 cities decreased. Among them, Foshan, Beijing and Zhengzhou ranked the top three in terms of the increase in the number of listings for sale, but the increase was not large, at 3.1%, 2.4% and 2% respectively. Zhengzhou has recently introduced new policies frequently and launched a policy to cancel the price limit. Owners have slightly increased their confidence in prices and the pace of launching new projects has accelerated.

Year-on-year, except for Dongguan and Nanjing, where the number of listings for sale decreased, the other 12 cities all increased. Among them, Shenzhen, Wuxi and Hangzhou ranked the top three in terms of year-on-year listings, at 340.6%, 68.2% and 64.5% respectively.

According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Data Research Center, in July 2024, the proportion of price-increasing properties in the price-adjusted properties in the 14 key cities was 7.15%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and down 3.25 percentage points year-on-year. The proportion of price-increasing properties has increased for three consecutive months. In July, the confidence of owners in price increases continued to consolidate, but the increase was significantly smaller than that of the previous month.

In terms of cities, among the 14 key cities monitored in July, the proportion of price-increasing houses in 7 cities increased, while the proportion of price-increasing houses in the other 7 cities decreased. Among them, Wuxi, Qingdao and Shenzhen had the largest increase in the proportion of price-increasing houses, ranking the top three. The proportion of price-increasing houses in Shanghai increased significantly under the new policy last month, but the upward trend did not continue this month, and the proportion of price-increasing houses decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 7.6%.

Beijing Business Daily reporter Wang Yinhao and Li Han