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According to data from China Index Academy, in the first seven months of this year, the total amount of land acquired by key real estate companies fell further year-on-year. At the same time, the transaction of land in some cities showed signs of recovery, such as high premiums and multiple real estate companies bidding.

Many industry insiders said that at present, the differentiation between the land auction market and the sales market has intensified, and real estate developers are cautious in acquiring land. However, some cities and regions are very hot. In some popular cities, there are even more than 10 real estate developers competing for a piece of popular land. This has also prompted local governments to better judge market demand and launch plots that better meet market demand.

High-premium plots appeared in many land auctions, and the land market showed signs of recovery

According to statistics from The Paper, the land markets in many places have shown signs of recovery, and there is even fierce competition for some plots of land.

On July 31, Nanjing welcomed the sale of 6 residential land plots. According to the transaction results, 2 of the 6 plots were sold at a premium price and 4 were sold at the reserve price, with a total transaction amount of about 2.818 billion yuan. After 41 rounds of bidding, the plot numbered NO.2024G16 was won by Nanjing Jinjitong Real Estate Co., Ltd. at a total price of 468 million yuan, with a floor price of 32,572 yuan/square meter and a premium rate of 20.62%.

On July 30, a residential land with no price limit in the main urban area of ​​Hangzhou was officially sold. After 42 rounds of bidding, the land was won by Hangzhou Zheheng Real Estate Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Greentown, at a total price of 2.716 billion yuan, with a floor price of 29,223 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 39.6%. The winner of this land was determined according to the principle of "the highest bidder wins" and no maximum price limit was set for the project. This is also the first land with no price limit sold in the main urban area of ​​Hangzhou since the implementation of housing price limits in July 2019.

On July 30, Hefei sold 10 residential land plots, earning about 5.139 billion yuan. Among them, Sichuan Bangtai Group won the YH202405 plot in Yaohai District with a total price of 619 million yuan, a floor price of 9,158 yuan per square meter, and a premium rate of 14.48%.

On July 23, Hangzhou sold two residential plots located in the Chengdong New Town section of Shangcheng District and the Digital Commercial City unit section of Linping New Town, with transaction premium rates of 22.6% and 59.2% respectively.

Earlier on July 9, the premium rates of the two plots of land in Pingliang and Changbai, Yangpu, Shanghai were 21.2% and 17.1% respectively. On June 25, the AF040134 plot south of Hedong Road, Liwan District, Guangzhou, achieved the first premium transaction of the year. On June 20, the No. 35 plot of land in Wangjia Village, Laoshan District, Qingdao, was sold at a floor price of 39,516 yuan/square meter after 364 rounds of bidding, setting a new record for Qingdao floor prices. On June 19, the NO.2024G11 plot of land in Nanjing was sold at a floor price of 43,888 yuan/square meter after 47 rounds of bidding, ranking second in Nanjing's history.

Taking the land parcel sold in Hangzhou on July 30 as an example, Gao Yuansheng, executive vice president of the East China Region of China Index Academy, pointed out that the Baimahu section where the land parcel is located has been in a state of supply shortage for a long time. The last residential land transfer can be traced back to the Zhongnan Baimahu No. 1 project 10 years ago. At the same time, the land parcel is close to the Baimahu Station of Metro Line 18 under construction, located to the west of Hangzhou Baimahu International Convention and Exhibition Center, and to the east is Baimahu Park. It is surrounded by schools such as Hangzhou No. 2 Baimahu School and Hangzhou Lakeside Middle School, and has relatively complete living facilities. In addition, most of the old residential areas in the Baimahu section were just-in-time products. This time, the land parcel is comprehensive.Volume rate1.76, the project can fill the gap in the high-end renovation needs of the sector.

An insider of a state-owned real estate developer in a central province told reporters that the company is currently focusing on plots of land in the Yangtze River Delta region, but not all plots in the region will be included in the auction. The company is mainly focusing on key areas with better sales, and the company will not hesitate to pay a premium to acquire land in these areas.

Another insider of a central state-owned real estate company said that the company has invested more than 5 billion yuan in a city in East China and is still looking for suitable opportunities. In addition to paying attention to areas where it has already deployed, it hopes to form economies of scale and reduce costs, and is also paying attention to TOD projects.

China Index Academy said that for plots in core areas, real estate developers are still willing to participate in the auction. These plots are often of high quality, with relatively complete surrounding facilities, relatively reasonable short-term inventory in the regional real estate market, and high certainty of project flow rate. Companies have a strong desire to expand or deepen their presence. However, for non-core areas, under the strategy of "investment based on sales" and the pressure on the capital side of real estate developers, real estate developers are more cautious in acquiring land.Before the confidence in the new housing market is significantly restored, the phenomenon of spot-like overheating and intensified differentiation in the land market is expected to continue in the short term.。

In the first seven months, the total amount of land acquired by real estate companies declined further year-on-year

According to the "TOP 100 National Real Estate Companies Land Acquisition Ranking List from January to July 2024" released by China Index Academy, in the first seven months of this year, the total amount of land acquisition by key real estate companies that the agency is concerned about has widened the year-on-year decline; in terms of the amount of land acquisition in various urban agglomerations, the Yangtze River Delta region leads the country.

The report shows that from January to July this year, the total amount of land acquired by the top 100 real estate companies was 430.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.0%, and the decline continued to expand by 2.2 percentage points compared with January to June. In July alone, the launch and transaction of land in first- and second-tier cities decreased, and the year-on-year decline in the total amount of land acquired by the top 100 companies widened accordingly.

China Index Academy said that overall, the trend of focusing on high-quality plots in core cities continued, and the differentiation between the land auction market and the sales market intensified, prompting real estate companies to remain cautious in land acquisition in the short term.

The total new cargo value of the TOP10 enterprises from January to July this year was 431.5 billion yuan, accounting for 32.4% of the TOP100 enterprises. The threshold for new cargo value was 5.4 billion yuan.

CRIC also stated that in the future, land prices will be more determined by market supply and demand, and restrictive policies on the land side are expected to be further optimized and adjusted, such as canceling land price limits in core cities.

From January to July, the top 10 enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta region acquired land worth 88.52 billion yuan, continuing to rank first among the four major city clusters, with a rapid growth, mainly due to land auctions in Shanghai, Hangzhou and other cities in July. The top 10 enterprises in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region acquired land worth 80.9 billion yuan, ranking second, mainly due to multiple land auctions in Beijing in July, with a rapid growth in the amount; the top 10 enterprises in the central and western regions acquired land worth 37.3 billion yuan, ranking third.

During the period of deep market adjustment, the market share of central SOEs increased

Judging from the top 10 real estate developers in terms of land acquisition amount in key cities, central state-owned enterprises are still the main force, and private enterprises are also replenishing land reserves in key areas. Poly Developments, China Resources Land and other companies have extensive layouts in many key cities, and central state-owned enterprises still maintain a high degree of participation, while private enterprises and mixed-ownership enterprises such as Greentown China, Binjiang Group and Longfor Group focus on replenishing land reserves in key areas.

Liu Shui, director of corporate research at China Index Academy, said that in the short term, the market share of real estate state-owned enterprises in sales and land acquisition has increased in recent years, and this trend will continue in the future. Such enterprises have financing advantages and strong brand advantages, and are more resistant to risks during periods of deep market adjustments.

Liu Shui said that in the long run, when the real estate market returns to normal, the market share of private real estate companies may increase again. There are more than 10 central state-owned real estate companies with strong operating and development capabilities, but their overall scale is limited. Most local state-owned real estate companies have weak operating and development capabilities and product strength, especially as residents' demand for "good houses" is increasing. With a market size of 10 trillion yuan, local state-owned enterprises are unable to support the market. Some private real estate companies have high operating efficiency and strong product strength. Once the market returns to normal, these companies will be more competitive and may increase their market share.

Private real estate companies are working hard to retain their development capabilities. At the shareholders' meeting of Sunac China Holdings (601155.SH) held on May 28 this year, Chairman Wang Xiaosong said that he must have seen that the market was stable and the company was safe before he went to acquire land. Wang Xiaosong also revealed that the company is now relying on ongoing and asset-light projects to stabilize the team first. Last year and this year, the company spent a lot of energy on the construction agency business, mainly to give everyone work to do and retain talent. "Some people give up because there is no stable cash flow at the bottom to support them, which is also a helpless move."

Regarding when to acquire land, a person from the land investment department of a local state-owned real estate company in Shanghai said that the company has been paying attention to the land market but has not made any move yet, mainly because the sales of the projects acquired in the early stage did not meet expectations. At present, the company is also following up on the research of the land parcels to be sold and the projects launched on the market, maintaining sensitivity to the market and waiting for the right time to make a move.

An insider of a private real estate company that has already encountered difficulties revealed that despite the difficulties and financial difficulties of the company, the boss was still very concerned when he saw the transaction data rising and signs of recovery. The company is currently also expanding construction projects on behalf of others, and hopes that after the market recovers, the company will have the opportunity to re-enter the market.