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How to understand the trend of US economic policy in the next four years? Understanding Kamala Harris's Economics

2024-08-04

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Key points:

Harris holds mainstream center-left views on economic policies, and her economic policies will be consistent with Biden's. In addition to Biden's economic policies, Harris will adjust tax, housing and welfare policies around building a more consumer-friendly middle class. Unions will play an important role in Harris' economic policies. Americans face a choice between Trump's economic policies that rely on the rich or Harris' economic policies that rely on the middle class.

Kamala Harris did not let down the historic opportunity given to her by Biden's early withdrawal from the race. From July 22, when Biden withdrew from the race, to the end of July, in just over a week, Harris raised $310 million in campaign funds, more than double the $138.7 million Trump raised in July. As of August 2, Harris's approval rating according to a survey by the US 538 website reached 45%, ahead of Trump's 43%.

In terms of funds raised and campaign popularity, Harris has been relatively stable ahead of Trump. From her first campaign speech, Harris did not hesitate to explain that she would defeat her Republican rival Trump in the US election in November. As an important trading partner and major competitor of China, how will the US economic policy develop in the next four years? We must understand Harris economics.

1. Harris holds mainstream center-left views on economic policies, and her economic policies will be consistent with Biden's.

Harris, a former prosecutor and U.S. senator from California, does not have a strong background in economics. As vice president, her main economic adviser is formerBlackRockEconomist Mike Pyle, who most recently served on the White House National Security Council and now works at Macro Advisory Partners, also advises Deanne Millison and Ford Motor Company on manufacturing policy.

White House officials who have more contact with Harris said that Harris has mainstream center-left views on economic policy, which may indicate that her approach is continuous with Biden and there will be no difference in direction.

“I think the core values ​​reflected in the policies of this administration are values ​​that Vice President Harris believes deeply in,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said at a press conference at the G20 summit in Brazil last week. “She clearly supports middle-class families, and she knows they are the key to the strength of the American economy. She has been focused on creating good jobs, lowering costs for Americans in key areas like child care and health care, and training workers for the industries of the future.”

In several campaign speeches, Harris also expressed her acceptance of the most popular parts of Biden's economic policies that have already passed congressional legislation, namely investing in the country's manufacturing, repairing infrastructure and incentivizing green energy. But Harris will build on this and expand some economic policies around the economic vision of the American middle class. In her speech, she focused on her more powerful focus on the so-called "care economy." That is, increasing access to child care, paid family leave, and education funding. This is also an economic policy that Biden once proposed but could not pass congressional review.

"Building the middle class will be a defining goal of my presidency, but Donald Trump wants to take your country backwards," Harris told a crowd of enthusiastic voters at a Wisconsin high school gymnasium on Tuesday.

Biden's economic policies are undoubtedly successful. Under his leadership, the United States has successfully suppressed inflation by raising interest rates. With high interest rates for two years, employment and consumer spending have continued to grow. He has led the United States out of the worst economic contraction caused by the epidemic since the Great Depression and brought a better life to Americans.

2. In addition to Biden’s economic policies, Harris will adjust tax, housing and welfare policies around building a more consumer-powerful middle class.

Ben Harris, who was one of Biden's top economic aides and now works at the Brookings Institution, said there is room for Kamala Harris to focus on housing issues, given her experience advocating for lower rental costs during her time in the Senate.

This would expand work started by the current administration, which has focused on housing-related issues in recent months. The White House recently announced a plan to cap rent increases nationwide and allocate more funds to expand the supply of affordable housing.

Harris was also very supportive of the $3.5 trillion "Build Back Better" plan for 2021 to promote the U.S. social safety net. Biden pushed for the plan, but it was ultimately rejected by Congress. Harris plans to submit it to Congress after making changes as required by lawmakers. The plan includes government subsidies for the care economy and tax exemptions for the middle class.

Putting the family at the center of economic policy and rebuilding a stronger middle class is, on the one hand, the essence of the American economy, and on the other hand, it is easy to resonate with voters during elections.

In addition, Harris is not as radical as Trump in foreign trade. On the issue of Sino-US trade disputes, Harris is in favor of imposing tariffs on optional products that affect the production of American companies, while Trump tends to impose high tariffs on all Chinese products. The two tariff policies are quite different.

3. Trade unions will play an important role in Harris’ economic policies.

Rebuilding a middle class with greater spending power is inseparable from employment and wages. Among Biden's economic achievements in recent years, employment is the growth highlight. Harris will undoubtedly not give up this point. She won the support of several major American labor unions during the two-week campaign, which also illustrates this point.

Felicia Wong, who served on Biden's transition advisory committee and is now president of the progressive advocacy group Roosevelt Forward, expects Harris to be a more active voice for U.S. unions. One of Harris' first rallies since becoming the de facto nominee was an event with members of the American Federation of Teachers, the second-largest teachers union in the country.

"One of the best ways to move our country forward is to give workers a voice: to protect the freedom to organize, to defend the freedom to bargain collectively, to end union-busting," Harris said at an event in Houston, Texas, on Thursday.

Harris' biggest challenge will be trying to debunk efforts by Trump and Republicans to portray themselves as the party of working people, especially in swing states.

She has criticized Trump's policies that she says will hurt working families, including tax cuts for wealthy Americans and corporations, sweeping tariffs on imports and mass deportations of immigrants.

Harris has said she will continue Biden's policy of not raising taxes on people making less than $400,000 a year.

4. Americans face a choice: Trump’s economic policy that relies on the rich or Harris’ economic policy that relies on the middle class.

Bharat Ramamurti, former deputy director of Biden's National Economic Council, said: "Ultimately, in November, voters can choose between two different future paths: Trump's economic policies that rely on capitalists and the rich, and Harris's economic path that continues to rely on workers, especially the middle class among workers."

With U.S. inflation retreating from a four-decade peak hit in 2022 and the Federal Reserve preparing to cut borrowing costs starting in September, the improving economic environment could allow the Harris campaign to tout the economic success of the Biden-Harris agenda while also appealing to voters’ optimism about her own economic plans.

A recent survey by Democratic pollster Blueprint found that when asked which candidate would do more to lower the prices of goods and services,Hershey's, voters are evenly divided between Harris and Trump.

Ramamurti said: "The U.S. economic recovery has been relatively successful in recent years. Hamas has the opportunity to tell people the story of the economy and recovery in the past few years, and people will be more receptive to it."

【Author: Xu Sanlang】