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Economic Observer reporter Zhang Rui Whether on the ground or in the air, "driverless taxis" are reaching a new critical point for commercialization.

In July this year, Baidu's (NASDAQ: BIDU) autonomous driving travel service platform Luobo Kuaipao was put into operation in many cities across the country, and quickly became popular due to topics such as rapid order growth and replacing human drivers.

At the same time, a picture with the words "Robot Run Automotive Robot Intelligent Control Center" was circulated on the Internet. This online picture shows that when Rotoboo Run provided unmanned driving services, there were real drivers sitting in front of the steering wheel and display screen to participate in the remote monitoring. For a while, the authenticity of unmanned driving also caused market controversy.

But in any case, LuoBoKuaiPao has once again aroused the market's high attention to the commercialization of driverless cars.

In the past half month, China International Capital Corporation Limited (hereinafter referred to as "CICC") has released several research reports stating that the recent commercialization progress of Robotaxi (driverless taxi) has exceeded market expectations and is expected to accelerate the implementation of high-level autonomous driving. Looking back, the development of Robotaxi can be traced back to 2010, and entered the current stage of implementation from 0 to 1 around 2018. The investment and financing performance of the industry has fluctuated several times in the past 10 years.

According to incomplete statistics from the Economic Observer, in addition to Luobo Kuaipao, companies in China that have been approved to carry out commercial operations of Robotaxi include Ruqi Mobility (09680.HK), Guangzhou WeRide Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "WeRide"), Guangzhou Pony.ai Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Pony.ai") and Shenzhen AutoX Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "AutoX"), etc., and the size of their fleets ranges from hundreds to thousands of units.

Not only in the automotive field, the commercialization of unmanned driving in air traffic is also ushering in an inflection point in the industry's development. In April this year, CICC's research report stated that 2024 is expected to be the first year of low-altitude flight, and the field may achieve a leap from 0 to 1, and eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft) may become the core carrier. Among them, EHang Intelligent (NASDAQ: EH) has won the world's first eVTOL type certificate in 2023. The company's air traffic business is also known as "air taxi".

From July 30 to 31, the Economic Observer interviewed Pony.ai Vice President Mo Luyi and Ehang Intelligent Vice President He Tianxing, discussing topics including the development of driverless technology, backend operation models, and commercial operation progress.

Unmanned

CICC stated in the above research report that Robo-taxi is an important application scenario for L4 autonomous driving.

What is L4? According to the "Automobile Driving Automation Classification" issued by the National Automobile Standardization Technical Committee, driving automation is divided into 6 levels. Among them, L0 to L2 are driving assistance, and the driver needs to monitor the driving throughout the process; L3 is conditional automatic driving, and the driver takes over in an emergency; L4 is highly automatic driving; L5 is fully automatic driving.

According to the Economic Observer, Pony.ai can currently provide travel services with or without safety officers in Nansha District, Guangzhou. Pony.ai said that all judgments and calculations, from recognizing road conditions to making decisions, and then applying the brake accelerator and brakes, are completed by Pony.ai's L4 autonomous driving software and hardware installed in the driverless car.

Within the company, Pony.ai named the autonomous driving software and hardware system it developed "virtual driver", which is also the technical goal proposed by the company's co-founder and CTO Lou Tiancheng: an emotionally stable "old driver".

So how does Pony.ai use technology to ensure the safety of driverless cars? Mo Luyi said that so far, they have completed 35 million kilometers of testing on public roads. In comparison, an ordinary human driver, except for professional drivers, may not drive 350,000 kilometers in his lifetime, so Pony.ai's test is equivalent to a human driver driving for 100 years. "All kinds of extreme scenarios on the road that you can imagine are called connercase in our industry, and we have experienced them all."

In addition, Mo Luyi said that Pony.ai has a redundant chassis system for L4 autonomous driving functions, and the vehicle chassis has a safe redundant structural design in both lateral and longitudinal control. They have carried out multi-layer safety design at the autonomous driving system level, including a main system that can achieve full-function autonomous driving to meet the requirements of L4 Robotaxi; on this basis, there are two layers of safety protection solutions. When the main system is dangerous or fails occasionally, the independent subsystem can achieve the functions of safe side parking and safe parking in the lane.

However, unlike the "Robot Car Intelligent Control Center" that has been circulated online, Pony.ai has tried its best to reduce the involvement of people in the daily work process. For example, a Pony.ai employee told the Economic Observer that, taking the Guangzhou Operation Center as an example, the company's back-end dispatch center is not a physical space, and remote assistance specialists do not need to work in a centralized office. They are more like programmers who can "operate in front of the computer."

Regarding solutions such as "remote chauffeur" and "remote driving", Pony.ai believes that this kind of remote control of the vehicle control level will greatly increase the risk of vehicle driving once delays and unstable signals occur, and is not advisable.

He Tianxing told the Economic Observer that he believes that the underlying logic of driverless vehicles, whether cars, aircraft, or even yachts and ships, is a digital management platform composed of artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing. "The difference between them is that the use scenarios of the vehicles they support are different, so the technical solutions for implementation are different. Among them, the driving environment faced by ground transportation is more complex, while air transportation requires a higher level of safety supervision," he said.

On July 30, the Economic Observer saw the company's upcoming "Flight Operation Command Center" at Ehang Intelligent's Guangzhou Test Flight Base: a giant display screen and two rows of desks facing the screen. "You can refer to the 'tower' and 'central control brain' in the civil aviation system to understand it." Ehang Intelligent's staff explained to the Economic Observer. He Tianxing further stated that the flight operation command center not only commands, dispatches, and monitors aircraft in working status, but also conducts real-time full-process management to ensure the safe flight of each aircraft. "We are currently working with the Civil Aviation Administration and other relevant regulatory agencies to jointly formulate the operating system standards and relevant regulatory regulations for manned eVTOLs. To use the words of the company's founder, 'Reliable code plus emotionless machines is the safest product.'" He Tianxing said that unmanned driving and reducing human interference are in line with the original intention of Ehang Intelligent when it was founded.

He Tianxing also said that unmanned operation is also very important for large-scale commercial operations in the future. "The high cost means that it is difficult to achieve universal access. If it costs thousands of yuan to take an online ride-hailing car today, I think it will greatly affect its popularity." He continued, maybe in the past, 4 or 5 people were responsible for one aircraft, but in the future, 2 people can be responsible for 5 or 6 aircraft.

commercialize

On July 23, an article on driverless driving published on the official website of the China Society of Automotive Engineers stated that the Robotaxi industry has now entered the pilot stage of fully unmanned commercial operations: from road testing to demonstration operations within designated areas, from equipping front-seat safety officers to implementing safety officer-free operations in some cities, and from free experience to commercial operations.

Globally, the commercial development of Robotaxi is divided into multiple echelons based on differences in national policies, capital investment, level of development of autonomous driving technology, and business logic verification. Taking 2023 as an example, China and the United States have made relatively fast progress and have carried out commercial operations without driver safety officers in limited areas; Germany, France, the United Arab Emirates and other countries have launched small-scale commercial pilots with driver safety officers; countries and regions such as the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia are still focusing on road testing.

Mo Luyi said that taking Guangzhou as an example, a Robotaxi needs to obtain different stages of permission from the policy from road testing to commercial charging, and each stage requires the vehicle to meet the corresponding requirements in terms of operating mileage, vehicle emergency response, safety redundancy design, etc. In the context of an increasingly stringent regulatory environment, special attention should be paid to compliance and operational issues in data compliance and privacy protection, safety standards and accident liability, road testing and commercial operation, technical standards and certification, policy communication and compliance guidance, etc.

Mo Luyi said that currently, Pony.ai is mainly involved in three business segments: Robotaxi, Robotruk (self-driving trucks), and intelligent driving assistance for passenger cars. It plans to complete the task of technological breakthroughs and commercialization in the next 5 to 10 years. Among them, in terms of Robotaxi, it is expected that it can be mass-produced and put on the road in a real sense in 2025, allowing all ordinary people to experience what future travel will look like; in terms of Robotruk, there are currently Robotruks that travel between Beijing and Tianjin every day to transport goods, and the demand for freight is strong.

Mo Luyi also said that Pony.ai's self-driving trucks have completed the process from demo (trial) to technical verification to small-scale commercial operation (with safety officers), and the next stage of breakthrough is unmanned operation.

The commercialization of Ehang Intelligent is still waiting for a "permit".

He Tianxing said that in July this year, Guangdong Ehang General Aviation Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ehang Intelligent, which specializes in UAM (urban air traffic) operation services, and Hefei Heyi Aviation Co., Ltd., its joint venture operating company in Hefei, respectively submitted applications for civil unmanned aircraft operating certificates (Air Operator Certificate, hereinafter referred to as "OC"), which have been accepted by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, and various certification work will be carried out soon.

"OC is the last hurdle for us to enter commercialization, and we hope to get it this year." He Tianxing said that Ehang Intelligent's application for OC also means that they and the Civil Aviation Administration of China will soon jointly establish a new unmanned aerial vehicle operation system, achieving a breakthrough from "0 to 1" in the global new civil aviation industry, which is of pioneering significance for the development of the world's eVTOL industry.

In addition, He Tianxing disagrees with the view that driverless cars will "take jobs away from human drivers". He believes that innovative things will replace old productivity, promote the development of new productivity, and also create more jobs. For example, the flight operation command center will be equipped with flight service engineers, the boarding point will be equipped with security service links, and safety assurance will also involve commercial insurance. In the future, the development of platform economy, sharing economy and social consumer services will be vigorously promoted, which will bring new opportunities.

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Zhang Rui, reporter of Economic Observer

Guangzhou News Department Reporter
Focus on the manufacturing sector in South China, including food, textiles, furniture, computers, communications and other electronic equipment.
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