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Source: Global Times

[Global Times special correspondents to Guangdong Chen Zishuai, Wang Dong and Tu Lei] This year, China has made significant breakthroughs in the field of electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL). Companies have "flexed their muscles" and several products have been publicly flown at home and abroad. On July 31, the US "Times" website published a report titled "The Real Future of Flying Cars", saying that China is in a leading position in the competition in the eVTOL industry. Currently, China's eVTOL production accounts for about 50% of the global total. So, how far is it from the arrival of the "flying car" era? Recently, reporters from the "Global Times" interviewed relevant experts and several manufacturers.

Domestic eVTOL "a hundred flowers blooming"

When you stand in front of an eVTOL at a close distance, you might think it is a helicopter with a mini appearance but a more technological feel. At the Guangzhou headquarters of Ehang Intelligent, an intelligent autonomous aircraft technology company, a reporter from the Global Times took a test ride on the company's EH216-S model manned aircraft. The 16 black rotor "wings" held up the white two-seater cockpit, which looked ready to take off. Walking into the cockpit, there seemed to be no additional instruments and equipment except for a large screen showing aircraft and map information, as if telling passengers: You just need to sit and do nothing. Time reported that in April this year, the model obtained the world's first unmanned manned aircraft production license issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China. So far, the EH216-S has obtained three key airworthiness certificates: type certificate (TC), standard airworthiness certificate (AC) and production certificate (PC), indicating that the product has the qualifications for mass production. According to the data, the maximum design speed of the model is 130 kilometers per hour, the maximum range is 30 kilometers, and the maximum flight time is 25 minutes.

He Tianxing, vice president of EHang Intelligent, told the Global Times that the reason why the EH216-S was able to obtain the "three certificates" is because its safety has been verified. "The aircraft adopts a multi-redundant backup technology solution, including power batteries, propellers and other equipment. There are alternatives. When a part fails, the backup can take over in a short time."

The reporter also saw the larger new generation aircraft VT-30 in the Ehang Intelligent Exhibition Hall. Its shape is more similar to that of a traditional aircraft. It is mainly used for long-distance flights between cities. The designed range can reach 300 kilometers and the endurance time is 100 minutes.

At present, domestically produced eVTOLs have shown a "hundred flowers blooming" trend. Products from different companies use different technical routes and are also different in shape, size, passenger capacity and other indicators. It is understood that there are currently three main technical routes for manned eVTOL: multi-rotor, composite wing and tilt-rotor. Sichuan Wofei Changkong AE200 uses the third technology, and the model completed its first real full-tilt transition flight test in June.

In February this year, Fengfei Aviation Technology Co., Ltd.'s five-seater eVTOL aircraft "Shengshilong" completed a cross-sea and cross-city flight from Shenzhen to Zhuhai (as shown in the picture), shortening the one-way 2.5 to 3 hours of ground travel to 20 minutes. "Our products are all independently developed, the core modules are 100% domestically developed, and the three-electric and core components have completely independent intellectual property rights." Xie Jia, senior vice president of Fengfei Aviation Technology, told the Global Times reporter that compared with other international companies' products, domestically produced eVTOL can rely on a more mature industrial chain, making the product cost more advantageous.

In February this year, Fengfei Aviation Technology Co., Ltd.'s five-seat eVTOL aircraft "Shengshilong" completed a cross-sea and cross-city flight from Shenzhen to Zhuhai.

Overseas orders received

So, what is the overall situation of the global eVTOL industry? "At present, the global eVTOL industry is in a stage of rapid development. The eVTOL technology route is gradually becoming clear, the market is growing rapidly, and the financing breadth and scale continue to grow. Relevant companies in the United States, Europe, and China have launched a variety of complete machine products, and the industry competition is fierce." Zhou Yuzhe, deputy director of the Aerospace Information Research Office of the Future Industry Research Center of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, said in an interview with the Global Times that my country has three first-mover advantages in developing eVTOL products: first, the advantages of the component industry chain in batteries, motors, and electronic controls; second, the advantages of large-scale construction of charging infrastructure; and third, the advantages of the aviation manufacturing industry in aviation materials and aviation equipment.

"The global eVTOL industry is still in its early stages of development, especially the manned version of eVTOL aircraft above tons, which are still basically in the research and development and airworthiness stage, and the basic time for airworthiness certification is between 2026 and 2028," said Xie Jia.

Although domestically produced eVTOLs have not yet entered the commercial operation stage, they have received many overseas orders. He Tianxing told reporters that they have received thousands of eVTOL orders and pre-orders from Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea and other countries. The main application scenarios include three aspects: one is as a new mode of aerial manned transportation, the second is to provide aerial sightseeing tours in tourist attractions or cities, and the third is for emergency rescue.

In March this year, Fengfei delivered the first "Shengshilong" to a Japanese AAM (Advanced Air Mobility) operator. This aircraft will be used for urban air traffic demonstration flights and is planned to be demonstrated at the Osaka World Expo in 2025. "Now many countries are planning AAM, believing that electric low-altitude travel is a green solution to solve urban congestion. Therefore, we have many customers in Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia and the Middle East." Xie Jia said.

Xie Jia also introduced that Fengfei has established an airworthiness R&D team of more than 30 people in Germany, and its airworthiness certification in the Chinese market has also received support from German experts. Next, they will promote the implementation of airworthiness certification in countries participating in the construction of the "Belt and Road".

The Greater Bay Area creates a low-altitude economic demonstration

Currently, many places across the country are seizing the opportunity to develop the low-altitude economy. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has made initial explorations and achievements both in the industrial chain and at the policy level. On the one hand, the Greater Bay Area has brought together a number of leading companies such as DJI, Ehang Intelligent, and Xiaopeng; on the other hand, cities such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou are actively creating demonstrations of low-altitude economic applications.

"If the low-altitude economy is to form an industrial scale, the core application directions must be manned travel and logistics transportation. In the future, there will be tens of thousands of eVTOLs flying over Guangzhou." He Tianxing believes that to promote the development of the eVTOL industry, a number of operational models must be created in prefecture-level cities, and the cities in the Greater Bay Area have such potential.

Liu Daxiang, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, mentioned that the Greater Bay Area has a solid economic foundation, with an advanced manufacturing industry system and first-class innovation momentum. On the other hand, the Greater Bay Area has many low-altitude economic application scenarios and huge potential market demand. According to Hong Kong's Ta Kung Pao, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments issued a document to encourage Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao to carry out demonstrations of inter-city drone transport terminal delivery applications, and to carry out "urban air traffic" demonstration applications with eVTOL as the focus.

"Members of the Hong Kong Legislative Council are actively promoting the formulation of relevant policies and plans to integrate into the integrated development of the low-altitude economy in the Greater Bay Area." Ehang Intelligent recently participated in the "Hong Kong Low-altitude Economic Development Seminar". He Tianxing told reporters that the development of the low-altitude economy is a consensus among many Hong Kong politicians. Public reports show that Liao Zhenxin, Acting Secretary for Transport and Logistics of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, revealed that he is working closely with relevant policy bureaus and departments to help promote the development of Hong Kong's low-altitude economy. Elizabeth Quat, a member of the Legislative Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, said that Hong Kong should make good use of the industrial advantages of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, learn from the experience of relevant cities, use the first-mover approach, select appropriate scenarios, and accelerate the development of the low-altitude economy. In He Tianxing's view, opening up the "low-altitude entry and exit" between Hong Kong and the Mainland is one of the important development directions.

The Ta Kung Pao also stated that the Greater Bay Area plans to open hundreds of eVTOL routes and thousands of take-off and landing points in the next few years to provide "sky power" to accelerate the Bay Area's one-hour living circle.

How long does it take from “flying” to “being used”?

The China Low-altitude Economic Development Research Report (2024) released by CCID Research Institute shows that the scale of China's low-altitude economy will reach 505.95 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 33.8%. It is optimistically expected that the scale of the low-altitude economy is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026. It is worth mentioning that the scale of China's eVTOL industry will reach 980 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 77.3%, and is expected to reach 9.5 billion yuan by 2026. "Compared with helicopters, eVTOL is more environmentally friendly, has lower costs, and occupies a smaller area." An industry insider told the Global Times reporter that the commercial prospects of eVTOL are quite promising.

For eVTOL operators such as Ehang Intelligent, obtaining a commercial operating license is the next stage goal, but in the short term, many barriers need to be broken down to achieve this goal. At present, relevant departments are still exploring the formulation of low-altitude flight management system rules and standards. The reporter noted that Suzhou City issued the "Suzhou Low-altitude Air Traffic Rules (Trial)" on the 13th of last month, which stipulates low-altitude air traffic rules in terms of service management, operation management, airspace management, flight activity management, flight support, etc.

"my country's low-altitude flight service guarantee system has basically taken shape." The Hong Kong "South China Morning Post" quoted Song Zhiyong, director of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, as saying that by the end of 2023, 449 general airports will be built across the country, the national information management system, 7 regional information processing systems and 32 flight service stations will be completed, and a civil unmanned aerial vehicle comprehensive management platform will be launched, achieving full coverage of low-altitude flight supervision and services.

Zhou Yuzhe told reporters that my country is expected to achieve large-scale commercial operation of eVTOL in the next 3-5 years, including electric propulsion products and hybrid products. In the process of promoting commercialization, at least three issues need to be resolved: first, battery technology and product optimization for eVTOL to meet its requirements in terms of power, cycle life, charging time, cost and safety; second, infrastructure construction for eVTOL services, mainly various take-off and landing stations and supporting equipment, etc. need to meet a certain scale and penetration rate; third, the safety capabilities of eVTOL, including the autonomous control capabilities of the aircraft, the integrated communication, navigation and monitoring capabilities of the earth and the sky, etc., must be recognized by the society and accepted by the public.

An eVTOL company told the Global Times that they will follow the national policy of "cargo first, people later". The most important thing now is to "fly and use" first, so as to better promote the establishment and improvement of the entire operation system. "The manned version of eVTOL is expected to be operated in a small-scale pilot in typical scenarios after 2026, and then gradually promoted." Xie Jia said.

At present, eVTOL is expensive and the construction of related infrastructure is very expensive. So can it become a future travel mode for the public? "In the future, the price of taking eVTOL will be more expensive than ground transportation, but it will also be within the consumer's tolerance range." He Tianxing told reporters. Xie Jia said that some general aviation operators expect that after large-scale operation, the operating cost of eVTOL will be comparable to that of ground special cars. "Take Shenzhen to Zhuhai as an example. It is expected that after large-scale operation, the cost of eVTOL per person per seat can be reduced to 300 yuan." The reporter found that the price of taking a special car of different brands from Shenzhen Station to Zhuhai Station ranges from 420 to 760 yuan.

However, the Time article also expressed sober thinking about the eVTOL industry, saying that the idea of ​​"flying cars" is indeed interesting, but its market may be only slightly larger than providing helicopter services for the rich. This industry will eventually be operated by "sub-regional" airlines like low-cost airlines, and people will still need to queue and go through security checks.

Xie Jia said that this is a brand new industry. In the short term, there are many problems to be solved in order to achieve low-altitude travel, including the certification of aircraft airworthiness, air traffic management system, airspace, route planning, construction of take-off and landing points, navigation and communication and other infrastructure. It will take some time to build and improve. "However, we firmly believe that 'air taxis' can be connected to the city's public transportation system and become an important part of our daily travel."