news

In the first half of this year, the total scale of housing demand continued to shrink.

The total transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in the 20 key cities monitored by CRIC decreased by 22% year-on-year.

The size of the new housing market is shrinking at an accelerated pace, and the market share is further tilting towards second-hand housing.

From the perspective of transaction structure, the trend of larger new homes and improved products remains unchanged, and the transaction proportion of large-area products in key cities has generally increased.

Behind the transaction structure of new and second-hand houses in key cities, it actually reflects that some changes are taking place in the home-buying customer base and their purchasing power.

Overall, there is a strong complementary nature between first-hand and second-hand housing in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou. The activity of second-hand housing buyers has increased, and buyers in the new housing market are generally those who want to upgrade their homes. In cities such as Tianjin, Wuhan, and Zhengzhou, the transaction structure of second-hand and new homes is similar, and they are obviously interchangeable. Therefore, the replacement efficiency is not strong, and the competition between first-hand and second-hand housing has intensified.

The property market continued to adjust deeply in the first half of the year. CRIC data showed thatIn the first half of the year, the total transaction volume of first-hand and second-hand houses in the 20 key cities was 130 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22% and a month-on-month decrease of 7%.

Among them, the transaction volume of new homes in the key 20 cities was 49.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 38% and a month-on-month decrease of 21%. The transaction volume of second-hand homes was 81.36 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% and a month-on-month increase of 5%.

The market share further tilted towards second-hand housing.

In the first half of the year, the proportion of second-hand housing transactions in the key 20 cities increased to 62%, an increase of 9 percentage points year-on-year and 7 percentage points month-on-month.

The proportion of second-hand housing transactions in all cities has increasedAmong them, the second-hand housing market share in Beijing, Shanghai, Hefei, Nanjing and other cities has increased to more than 70%.

From the perspective of transaction structure, the new housing market shows a trend of larger area and improved products.The transaction proportion of large-area products in key cities has generally increased, among which the market share of products above 140 square meters has increased significantly, especially the transaction proportion of luxury houses above 180 square meters has continued to grow in recent years, and exceeded 8% in the first half of 2024.

The trend of second-hand housing transaction structure changes is significantly different from that of new housing. Although small-area products below 80 square meters are still the main force of second-hand housing transactions, their proportion continues to decline.The share of products with an area of ​​100-140 square meters has steadily rebounded, among which products with an area of ​​100-120 square meters account for 12%, an increase of 1 percentage point from 2023; and the transaction share of products with an area of ​​120-140 square meters is 10%, which is also an increase of about 1 percentage point from 2023.

Under the current market environment, home buyers can be roughly divided into four categories.

One is the rigid demand customer group.For those who purchase properties for the purpose of getting married, settling down or building a family, their purchasing power is relatively low and they are easily diverted to the second-hand housing market.The second is the first-time customer group.The focus is mainly on improvements in area and function, with a preference for new and second-hand houses in the suburbs or near the city.The third is the middle reform customer group, pursuing improvements in housing types and property facilities, paying attention to quality of life, mostly replacing homes, and tending to the new home market.Fourth, luxury home customers, high paying power, possession of scarce resources, and inclined towards the new housing market.

When it comes to typical cities, the demands of home buyers are obviously different.

Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are typical representatives.After the purchase restriction policy was adjusted, the activity of the rigid demand customer group increased, and this group is also the most active group in second-hand housing purchase.The capacity of high-end home improvement customers in such cities is relatively stable and is mainly concentrated in the new home market.

In Beijing, for example,The current active buyers of second-hand houses are mainly those who buy one-bedroom and two-bedroom houses for the first time or for the first time, accounting for 75% in total. The second most active buyers are those who buy three-bedroom houses for the first time, accounting for 22%.

Also in Beijing, the first-time homebuyers who were active in the first half of the year were mainly first-time homebuyers who bought three-bedroom homes, accounting for 50%. The second-time homebuyers who bought four-bedroom homes or above accounted for 29%. The first-time homebuyers and first-time homebuyers accounted for only 15%. This means that the homebuyers active in the current new home market are generally homebuyers who want to upgrade.

In Hangzhou and Xi'an, the main buyers are those with a desire to improve their living conditions, and high-end demand for improvement is relatively abundant.

For example, the new housing market in Xi'an shows the characteristics of narrowing rigid demand, increasing proportion of improvement, and large increase in second-time improvement. CRIC divides customer groups according to the total transaction price range. In 2024, the rigid demand customer group in Xi'an will account for 28%, a decrease of 9 percentage points from 2023, and the first-time improvement customer group will account for 43%. In addition, the proportion of second-time improvement customer group and luxury improvement customer group will increase.

It is worth noting that the core area is based on supply scarcity + inverted dividends.The demand for high-end renovation remains strongThis phenomenon is more obvious in Hangzhou.

Tianjin, Wuhan and Zhengzhou residents purchase houses mainly for rigid demand, and the overall performance of second-hand houses is stronger than that of new houses.Small-sized and low-priced houses continue to be hot-selling. Taking Tianjin as an example, according to CRIC research, new home buyers in Tianjin can be roughly divided into three categories: one is the rigid demand buyers, accounting for about 70%, the other is the improvement buyers, accounting for about 27%, and the last is the luxury buyers, accounting for only 3%.

In terms of purchasing power, the complementarity between first-hand and second-hand goods is strong in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hangzhou., the transaction structure of new and second-hand houses is quite different. New house customers focus on improvement, while second-hand houses meet rigid demand. The increase in the activity of second-hand houses may stimulate some "selling old and buying new" re-modification and high-end demand, so the market heat may gradually be transmitted from the second-hand housing market to the new housing market.

There is a strong interchangeability between first-hand and second-hand houses in Tianjin, Wuhan and ZhengzhouThere are similarities in the transaction structures of second-hand and new homes. Due to the limited supply of new homes in the short term or doubts about the safety of new home delivery, home buyers are squeezed into the second-hand housing market.

For cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Xi'an, the new home market has entered an era of improvement. The activity of second-hand homes is higher than that of new homes. Part of the replacement demand will be transferred to the new home market. The release of demand will help the new home market to stabilize and recover in the future, especially for first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. The capacity of high-end customers with a population of more than 10 million is stable, and their purchasing power is strong, and there is still room for release in the short term.

As for Tianjin, Wuhan and Zhengzhou, the purchasing power of new and second-hand housing markets is similar, and the trend of "one rises and the other falls" will continue. However, there are also some structural opportunities in the new housing market. The increase in the supply of small-sized new homes, the upgrading of real estate companies' promotional methods, and the innovation of apartment design will gradually restore the confidence of home buyers, thereby driving a round of new home transactions.