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[Global Times Comprehensive Report] On July 29, US Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Austin visited Manila and held a "2+2" meeting with Philippine Foreign Minister Manalo and Defense Minister Teodoro on the 30th. Philippine media said that this was the second "2+2" meeting between the two countries during President Marcos's tenure and the first time the Philippines hosted such a meeting. After the meeting, the US announced that it would provide the Philippines with $500 million in foreign military financing to "help Manila modernize its army and coast guard." In addition, the two countries also sought to reach a new key agreement on real-time information sharing and defense technology cooperation. The Philippine GMA News Network claimed that with the ongoing friction between China and the Philippines over the disputed territory in the South China Sea, Blinken and Austin's attendance at the "2+2" meeting highlighted Washington's high-profile support for its allies. Experts interviewed by the Global Times on the 30th believed that the US's intention was relatively clear, that is, to make the Philippines an "agent" to confront China in the "Indo-Pacific region", especially on the South China Sea issue, and to further firmly control the Philippines, while sending a signal to its allies that its commitments "count." On the 30th, Russia's Sputnik News Agency quoted Alexey Maslov, dean of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University, as saying that the United States is establishing various groups in East Asia and Southeast Asia, in which the Philippines plays an important role. Strengthening military ties between the United States and the Philippines will not only fail to enhance the latter's "defense capabilities", but will undermine the comprehensive security system established in the region over the years.

Blinken file photo source: Visual China

“This level of funding is unprecedented”

According to the Philippine Rappler news website on the 30th, Philippine President Marcos met with Blinken and Austin at the Malacañang Palace, the presidential palace. "I am always very happy that these communication channels are very smooth," Marcos said, "so that everything we do together in terms of the alliance, in terms of the specific situation in the 'West Philippine Sea' and 'Indo-Pacific' region, is constantly evaluated and re-evaluated, so we are very flexible in our response."

After the meeting with Marcos, Blinken and Austin went to Camp Aguinaldo in the Philippines to hold talks with Manalo and Teodoro. According to the Philippine Manila Bulletin on the 30th, after the talks, the US announced a new military financing of $500 million for the Philippine Armed Forces and Coast Guard. Austin said: "This level of funding is unprecedented." "Defending (Philippine) sovereignty - that's everything." The Manila Bulletin claimed that when Blinken made the above remarks at a press conference, he admitted that the Philippines' so-called "sovereignty" over the South China Sea was under threat. He said that the United States hopes to help its allies be in a "better position" to maintain the status quo.

According to GMA News, the funds will also be used to build, develop and improve existing military bases in the Philippines, which can be used by the US military. In addition, the United States and the Philippines also announced that they had made "progress" in negotiations to reach a General Security of Military Intelligence Agreement (GSOMIA), which will be reached by the end of the year. The report said that GSOMIA will strengthen information sharing between the two countries and allow the United States to transfer more defense technology and intelligence to the Philippines. In addition, both Blinken and Austin assured that the United States' commitment to the Philippines will not change regardless of the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election.

"The agreement reached at the US-Philippines '2+2' talks is a true reflection of the two countries' continued deep ties on strategic issues, continued coordination in enhancing alliance relations, and continued investment of real money in promoting regional militarization." Ding Duo, deputy director of the Institute of Marine Law and Policy of the China Institute of South China Sea Studies, said in an interview with the Global Times on the 30th that it is worth noting that the US$500 million was not provided to the Philippines free of charge by the United States, and part of it was invested in the construction of US military bases in the Philippines. How much the Philippines can control, how much it can use, and how much it can "benefit" from it, the answer is self-evident. "In addition, other financing will not be without thresholds, and the United States will put forward various specific and restrictive conditions and requirements for the Philippines." Ding Duo further analyzed.

The Philippines is the core of the US Indo-Pacific deployment

On July 22, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that China had reached a temporary arrangement with the Philippines on the management of the situation at Ren'ai Reef. On the 27th, under the full supervision of the Chinese Coast Guard, the Philippines carried out a round of daily necessities transportation to the warship "running aground" on Ren'ai Reef. The transportation was carried out with the Chinese side being informed in advance.

Many US and Philippine media mentioned the above incidents when reporting on the "2+2" talks, but also hyped up the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines, especially the Second Thomas Shoal issue. Ding Duo believes that the "2+2" talks between the United States and the Philippines may have a negative impact on the Philippines' willingness to manage differences in the South China Sea. Whether it will lead to the Philippines going back on its word and no longer abiding by the temporary arrangement between China and the Philippines needs to be continuously observed. According to the Manila Times on the 30th, Herman Laurel, chairman of the Asian Century Philippine Strategic Institute, said that the Filipinos are worried that the visit of Blinken and Austin will undoubtedly be another opportunity for the United States to put pressure on the Marcos government again, forcing the Philippines to abandon the agreement reached with China to ease tensions in the South China Sea.

"Since Marcos took office, the relationship between the Philippines and the United States has been in a state of 'high-speed development'." Rappler News website said that in sharp contrast to his predecessor Duterte, the Marcos government has been working to bring the Philippines closer to the "former colonizer" the United States. Under Marcos' leadership, the Philippines agreed to add four new Philippine military bases that allow the US military to enter under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, and the two countries also issued the latest bilateral defense guidelines.

The report also stated that before arriving in Manila, Blinken and Austin held a "2+2" meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara in Tokyo, confirming that the US military in Japan will establish a "combined military command." A few weeks ago, the Philippines and Japan also held a "2+2" meeting and signed the "Reciprocal Access Agreement." At the Philippine-US-Japan leaders' meeting held in April, the cooperation among the three countries was formally confirmed.

The Washington Post said on the 30th that the Biden administration has declared the "Indo-Pacific region" as its priority, and China is its main geostrategic challenge in the long run. "The upgrades and revisions of our military deployments in Japan, the Philippines, Australia and elsewhere are part of our overall efforts to modernize our military deployments in the region," a senior US defense official said on the 30th, "and the Philippines is absolutely at the heart of it."

Regarding the recent acceleration of the connection between the United States, Japan and the Philippines, Ding Duo believes that the Biden administration, the Kishida administration and the Marcos administration will all face domestic elections in the coming period, and the accelerated connection reflects the urgency of the three parties to use this time window before the election to finalize specific security and defense cooperation matters or complete domestic procedures as soon as possible. "The purpose is also very clear, which is to engage in group confrontation against China and reshape the strategic environment around China in a direction that is beneficial to the United States, Japan and other countries. As time goes by, the anxiety of the United States, Japan and the Philippines will become stronger and stronger." Ding Duo said.

Philippine flagship project eyes US election

Some people are worried that the Philippines' "turning to the United States" will affect China's investment in the Philippines. According to Qatar's Al Jazeera, Harry Roque, former spokesman for former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, said that the Philippines' re-turn to the United States has led to a decline in investment from China. "Of course, every president has his own ideas," Roque told Al Jazeera, "If the president wants this policy, this is our relationship with China. But in general, President Duterte's policy is to make progress on issues where we can make progress in trade and investment, and put aside issues that we cannot solve in our lifetime." According to the report, in 2023, China's investment in Asia increased by 37%, half of which went to Southeast Asia. But according to the Nikkei, the Philippines has not seen any new investment or construction projects from China at all.

According to Nikkei Asia on the 29th, Delfin Lorenzana, former Philippine Defense Minister and current Director of the Base Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA), said that after China "withdrew" from a freight railway project connecting two former US military bases, the Philippines is seeking Japan and the United States to provide funding for this project worth 50 billion Philippine pesos (about 6.2 billion yuan).

The Subic-Clark freight rail project is part of the Luzon Economic Corridor, the Philippines' flagship infrastructure plan. But as the Philippines strives to deepen its economic and defense ties with Washington, U.S. President Biden's withdrawal from the re-election campaign has aroused concerns on the Philippines. They are worried that if former President Trump wins the November election, the United States may change its position on the Philippines. The BCDA hopes that the election results will not affect the construction of the Luzon Economic Corridor.

[Global Times special correspondent in the Philippines Fan Fan Global Times reporters Guo Yuandan Chen Xin Liu Yupeng]