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[Global Times Special Correspondent Chen Yang] As the delivery time of the F-16 fighter jets aided by the West to Ukraine approaches, the Russian air strikes on Ukrainian rear airports have become unusually fierce and frequent, which also indirectly shows that the Russian military is concerned about Ukraine's acquisition of this new aerial weapon. However, both Ukraine and Western countries have clearly realized that this previously touted magical weapon isfighter, and cannot quickly change the current situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.F-16The basic battlefield survival issues are difficult to guarantee.

F-16 fighter jet data source: Visual China

The Russian army uses a new tactic: "preventive strike"

The New York Times reported on July 28 that Ukraine is eager to begin deploying the first batch of F-16 fighter jets aided by the West this summer to counter Russia's dominance in the air. However, Russia has recently stepped up its bombing of air bases in central and western Ukraine, intending to destroy the infrastructure needed for these fighter jets.

Although Ukraine has kept secret the base where the F-16 will be deployed, Reuters quoted analysts as saying that since early July, the Russian military has used drones and ballistic missiles to launch large-scale air strikes on several air bases in the rear of Ukraine, including Milhorod in central Ukraine, Starokonstantinov in the west, and Doljintsevo Air Base in the Dnipro region. The Russian military claimed that it destroyed several Ukrainian fighter jets in the air strikes, and military analysts said that the Russian military's more likely intention was to target the infrastructure of the air base, such as runways and storage facilities.

A Western defense industry source told AFP that the old Konstantinov air base is an ideal choice for deploying F-16s. It is equipped with some Soviet-era underground bunkers that can better deal with Russian strikes. Anatoly, commander of the mobile air defense force at the base, said that the Russian army used cluster munitions in the air strikes to destroy jets on the ground. On the 28th, the Russian Satellite Network quoted Viktor Litovkin, a retired Russian army colonel and military analyst, as saying that in order to deploy F-16 fighter jets, it is necessary to have an airport with a long enough runway, as well as supporting airport control towers, radar stations and small factories for producing high-pressure air and purifying aviation kerosene. In addition, these bases should also have hangars or warehouses to store ammunition, air-to-air missiles and air-to-ground missiles, as well as concrete hangars to ensure that fighter jets will not be destroyed when attacked by the enemy on the ground. He said that the old Konstantinov air base has all these infrastructures. He explained that the continuous Russian attacks on the old Konstantinov and other Ukrainian air bases mean that Moscow's top leaders are aware of Ukraine's intention to deploy F-16 fighter jets and are closely monitoring the dynamics of these airports. Litovkin said that the main goal of the air strike is to destroy related facilities. To this end, the Russian army is likely to use powerful "Iskander" tactical ballistic missiles to cause maximum damage to Ukrainian military airports.

The New York Times mentioned that in order to deal with these Ukrainian rear airports, the Russian army also adopted a new tactic. Usually a Russian drone appears over a Ukrainian air base without warning, and a few minutes after transmitting the target data back to the Russian rear command center, a series of ballistic missiles attack the Ukrainian base. According to reports, Russia has been deploying unmanned reconnaissance aircraft over Ukraine, but the flight range is limited, and Russia mainly relies on spy satellites to monitor Ukrainian air bases. For fighter jets that can be flexibly deployed, Russian reconnaissance satellites cannot provide the latest developments of these bases in real time. But now the tactics of Russian drones have changed. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat said that Russia is improving the combat mode of reconnaissance drones, "so that we can't use electronic warfare to interfere." At the same time, the Russian army has pre-programmed long-range unmanned reconnaissance aircraft so that they can penetrate deep into Ukraine without emitting obvious electronic signals, making them more difficult to detect.

Military analysts said that the Russian military's ability to use drones to monitor Ukraine's deep areas has recently improved significantly. By monitoring the dynamics of the Ukrainian air force bases in the rear, the Russian military can promptly use ballistic missiles and suicide drones to carry out "preventive strikes" on these bases to destroy the infrastructure needed to deploy F-16s.

Ukrainian troops "camouflage and hide" to survive

Ukraine has launched a "cat and mouse game" in response to the Russian military's intention to destroy the air base through air strikes. The New York Times said that the Ukrainian army used old deception tactics to confuse Russian reconnaissance forces. Ignat said that the Ukrainian Air Force has effectively adopted deception tactics, such as using model aircraft of the same scale as bait. In order to produce a realistic camouflage effect as much as possible, they need to be moved from time to time to protect the Ukrainian Air Force's existing fighter jets and upcoming F-16 fighter jets. He said: "Thanks to these models, the enemy has lost dozens or even hundreds of missiles." At the same time, the Ukrainian Air Force also uses old Yak-52 trainer aircraft from the 1970s to hunt Russian drones everywhere.

Justin Bronk, a military expert at the Royal United Services Institute, said that so far, the Ukrainian Air Force has relied heavily on "dispersed operations" to ensure that its fighters are not destroyed. He explained that by moving fighters irregularly within the base or between bases, it is difficult for the Russian air strikes to find targets. "If Russia really launches an air strike, it may only hit an empty asphalt road or grass." But if Ukraine wants to ensure that the F-16 fighters can take off and fight, this situation may have to change. Because the F-16 fighter has high requirements for airport supporting facilities, such as a completely flat runway and clearing nearby small stones and other debris to avoid the risk of them being sucked into the engine. But Bronk said that any attempt by Ukraine to improve the infrastructure of existing bases will be detected by Russian reconnaissance forces and lead to subsequent strikes.

According to the BBC website, US Secretary of State Blinken said that Denmark and the Netherlands have begun to transfer F-16 fighter jets, and Ukraine is expected to obtain 65 second-hand F-16 fighter jets from the West. They will double the number of fighter jets available to Ukraine. More importantly, these F-16s can not only carry various air-to-ground and air-to-air weapons provided by the West, but can also be connected to the NATO command system through data links to better exert their combat effectiveness.

However, both the West and Ukraine admit that the F-16 is not a "magic weapon" that can immediately change the battlefield situation. The top Ukrainian Air Force admitted, "We fully understand that it is difficult to gain air superiority with one aircraft," but the F-16 can drive away Russian fighters that drop guided bombs from high altitudes. "If Russian fighters retreat from the front line as a result, this can be seen as a turning point and a victory - even if Ukraine does not gain air superiority, it has at least gained equal air superiority."

The Russian satellite network also revealed that sources said that in response to the Russian military's attack on the Ukrainian air base, the Ukrainian army will deploy F-16s in third countries such as Poland, hoping that Russia will not bomb there for fear of an open conflict with NATO, while the Ukrainian air base will be used to refuel fighter jets and replenish ammunition. The New York Times also mentioned that Ukraine will store some F-16s in "safe air bases" outside Ukraine to prevent them from becoming targets of the Russian military. However, the report acknowledged that Russian President Putin had previously warned that storing fighter jets or other Ukrainian military assets outside Ukraine could "pose a serious risk of NATO further becoming involved in the conflict."

In addition, Ukraine faces a series of obstacles such as human resources if it wants to make full use of the F-16 fighter jets. The New York Times said that about 20 Ukrainian pilots are expected to complete the relevant training for flying F-16s this year. Usually, each F-16 will be assigned at least two pilots, so Ukraine can only have a maximum of 10 F-16 fighter jets to perform combat missions this year. At the same time, Ukraine lacks well-trained ground maintenance personnel. Brown, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff who has served as an F-16 pilot for a long time, said that in order to fully utilize the combat effectiveness of the F-16, not only must there be enough pilots, but maintenance capabilities are also a key part.