White Paper on China's Automobile Terminal Volume and Price Analysis: New Pattern under Price War
2024-07-30
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Some time agoBMWThe topic of the big price cut has become a hot topic, because the original price was more than 300,000 yuan before it could be landed.BMW i3Now, it only costs about 180,000 yuan to land, which shocked many friends. After all, in the past,BMW 3 SeriesIt does cost more than 300,000 yuan to buy one, but now that it can be bought at this price, doesn’t that allow many people to fulfill their BMW dreams ahead of time?
But a few days ago, BMW withdrew from the "price war", and then,Benz、AudiSaid it would also withdraw from the price war.
Honda、ToyotaJoint venture brands such as Toyota and Volkswagen are reported to follow suit in raising prices.
From luxury brands to joint venture brands, a wave of price increases is spreading in the terminal market. An industry insider said, "It is not certain whether prices will increase, but at least they will not fall sharply again."
Have joint venture brands come out of the "price war" cycle? Can they maintain their market share without engaging in "price wars"?3 reports, let’s take a look together!
Looking at the industry sales in the first half of the year, the overall price war was more intense than expected. The industry is currently entering a seasonal break, and BBA, Volkswagen, and Toyota have strategically recovered their discounts.
In addition, many OEMs generally have seasonal rest during the summer vacation, and there may be production cuts. In addition, the terminal market has experienced a surge in June, and inventory is also at a low level. In previous years, there have been cases of "shrinking" summer discounts. This time, the companies' decision not to follow up on the "price war" is also related to the terminal inventory.
It is expected that with the arrival of the peak season, industry discounts may continue to rise at the end of the third quarter. Although price competition has not ended, judging from the prices of oil and electricity, joint ventures and independent prices, and the profitability of automakers and dealers, it may be entering the final stage.
Without engaging in a "price war", can joint venture cars still maintain their market share?
After half a year of "price war", joint venture brands have given up profits but their market share has not increased.
The latest sales data from the China Passenger Car Association shows that in the first half of this year, the market share of German brands has dropped from 20.4% last year to 19.4%, the market share of Japanese brands has dropped from 17% to 14.9%, and the market share of American brands has dropped from 7.9% to 6.7%. On the other hand, the market share of domestic brands has increased from 51.9% at the end of last year to 56.5% in the first half of this year.
The latest issue of the "Vehicle Inventory Alert Index Survey for Chinese Auto Dealers" (VIA) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association can more directly reflect the operating pressure of dealers. Data shows that in June this year, the Chinese auto dealer inventory alert index was 62.3%, up 8.3 percentage points year-on-year and 4.1 percentage points month-on-month. The inventory alert index is above the prosperity line, and the automobile distribution industry is in a recession.
The survey also showed that more than 80% of auto dealers failed to meet their sales targets in the first half of this year. At the same time, dealers often traded price for volume, with new car prices falling sharply and naked car gross profits being low.
Looking back at the 21st century, joint venture cars are very popular in the Chinese market, such as Volkswagen, Toyota,NissanBrands such as JV and JV are everywhere in the streets. When buying a car, joint venture brands are often the first choice because of their quality and reputation. The image of domestic cars at that time was weak technology and unstable quality.
Until 2019, American, Japanese and German joint venture cars accounted for almost half of the market share, and their prices and profits far exceeded those of domestic brands. For example, the return on net assets of BMW Brilliance and GAC Toyota has remained above 40% for many years, while that of domestic brands is less than 15%.
but,The decline of joint venture car companies is foreseeable.
In recent years, my country's rapid development in the field of new energy vehicles and the strategy of "overtaking on the curve" have made the cost of electric vehicles significantly lower than that of fuel vehicles. The cost of home charging is extremely low, while joint venture automakers still rely on old technology and product lines. They have invested heavily in the field of fuel vehicles, but have invested relatively little in the research and development of electric vehicles.
At the same time, domestic new forces automakers have invested all their R&D budgets in the field of new energy vehicles, which makes them leading in intelligence and electrification. If joint venture automakers do not quickly adapt to market changes, it will be difficult for them to survive in the fierce market competition.
Facing competition in the Chinese market, they must make concessions on profits. Therefore, after this round of price war competition ends, once the industry sales volume cyclically rises, the profits of domestic automakers, especially those in the price range below 200,000 yuan, may usher in the most impressive expansion in history.
#Which brand do you think will take the lead in market share?
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