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Two astronauts on the "Starliner": Barry Wilmore and Sunny Williams

According to CCTV News, the return of the Boeing Starliner was delayed due to problems such as a propeller failure and a helium leak. The two astronauts it transported have been stranded in space for more than 50 days. Currently, it is still unknown when the two American astronauts will return to Earth. On July 25, NASA said that the failure had not yet been resolved and they were also considering alternative plans, such as returning on the Dragon spacecraft of the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation.

According to information previously released by NASA, the "Starliner" can dock at the space station for up to 45 days, but under special circumstances, the docking can be extended to 90 days.

Further reading

Media: Even according to international law, China has no obligation to rescue trapped American astronauts

The following article comes from Science and Industry Power (the official account of the Science and Technology Industry News Group of Guancha.com)

On June 5, American astronauts Barry Wilmore and Sunny Williams boarded Boeing's CST-100 Starliner to enter space.

【Text: Zhang Chengxin, a doctoral student at the School of Politics and International Relations, Lanzhou University】

On June 5, when American astronauts Barry Wilmore and Sunny Williams boarded Boeing's "Starliner" (CST-100 Starliner) into space, they may have been looking forward to spending Juneteenth (June 19, also known as "Liberation Day") with their families after completing their mission. According to the original plan, the "Starliner" will return to Earth on the 14th. Unexpectedly, now they have even missed the opportunity to spend the Independence Day (July 4) holiday with their families. Due to a series of technical failures, the "Starliner" has been stranded in space for more than a month, and Boeing has not yet been able to give a clear timetable for its return. Perhaps they can start praying that they can return to the ground before September to celebrate a complete Labor Day.

On June 5, Boeing's "Starliner" spacecraft was launched from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Base in Florida. Source: Xinhuanet

01. Boeing is to blame for continued poor performance

In fact, the development and service process of the "Starliner" was ill-fated. After many delays, the "Starliner", which was originally scheduled to fly for the first time in 2017, finally completed its first flight on December 20, 2019 with the "Atlas-5" carrier rocket, but failed to enter the scheduled orbit. The investigation report showed that the onboard clock was set incorrectly, causing the spacecraft to fail to ignite in the correct time period. In 2022, the "Starliner" carried out two unmanned launch missions to test its ability to dock with the International Space Station in an unmanned state. As a result, the first mission was canceled due to a thruster failure, and the second mission encountered a thruster ignition failure during the flight. Finally, the backup energy system had to be started to reach the International Space Station.

After that, the Starliner was originally scheduled to carry people to the International Space Station in the first half of 2023. Not surprisingly, this manned flight mission was delayed to the second half of 2023, and then delayed to May and June 2024. On June 5, the Starliner was finally launched with two NASA astronauts, but a helium leak and thruster failure occurred when docking with the International Space Station. At the critical moment, the two astronauts had to complete the docking through manual control. However, the above-mentioned faults still exist. In order to investigate and troubleshoot the fault, NASA and Boeing have postponed the return time many times.

Boeing Starliner spacecraft Source: Xinhuanet

According to CBS, the return plan may be "delayed indefinitely" before the helium leak and thruster technical problems are resolved. NASA Commercial Crew Program Manager Steve Stich said: "The two astronauts are very safe and are not trapped in space. We are not in a hurry to return... We are testing and analyzing the fault, and I think we are on the right track." Of course, whether it is really not urgent or not, you have to ask the astronauts themselves.

Since it was put into operation, there has not been a single launch mission of the "Starliner" that has not gone wrong, which inevitably makes people wonder whether it has not done a good job in quality management and factory inspection, and carefully verified the safety and reliability of the product. Even if the original product acceptance link is not investigated, the service and operation of the "Starliner" lack scientific planning, and even rush for quick success and blindly advance, ignoring the basic laws of industrial technology development. As mentioned earlier, although there are constant accidents in the unmanned flight state, Boeing is going to try manned flight missions directly, instead of doing more unmanned flight tests on the basis of improving the design plan and optimizing the flight system until the faults of onboard equipment such as the thrusters are eliminated. Even before this manned launch, the "Starliner" had a helium leak, but Boeing believed that "the problem was not big" and forcibly approved the launch.

In contrast, China launched its first manned spacecraft, Shenzhou V, only after launching four unmanned test spacecraft from Shenzhou 1 to Shenzhou 4 in succession, all of which returned safely and achieved the expected results. The manned Dragon spacecraft (SpaceX Dragon2) of the US Space Exploration Technology Corporation (SpaceX) also carried out its first official manned flight mission in November 2020 after three unmanned test flights and one manned test flight, all of which met the predetermined indicators.

SpaceX's manned "Dragon" spacecraft (SpaceX Dragon2) Source: Tencent Technology

Obviously, the current situation of the two American astronauts is Boeing's fault.

02. It is unlikely that they will seek help from a third party. If they have no other choice, they will most likely turn to Russia.

Since the responsibility is so clear, Boeing should clean up this "mess" by itself, rather than passing it on to others. But we can imagine how likely it is that Boeing will seek help from a third party organization? And who will it turn to?

First of all, Boeing will not ask any third party to rescue the two astronauts unless it is absolutely necessary. According to the bidding contract signed with NASA, the "Starliner" is a new generation of commercial manned spacecraft developed by Boeing to carry NASA astronauts to and from the International Space Station. NASA provides Boeing with $4.2 billion in funding for this purpose. Of course, the funding is not taken for nothing. The "Starliner" must carry NASA astronauts to complete at least one manned flight test, as well as at least two and up to six formal manned flight missions, and this mission is exactly as stipulated in the contract. Once a third party replaces Boeing to complete the mission, it will only fully expose Boeing's low ability to perform the contract and cause a serious blow to Boeing's brand credibility. From now on, NASA will most likely not grant Boeing a similar contract again, and it does not even rule out the possibility of discussing breach of contract compensation or termination of the contract with Boeing immediately. According to the design indicators, the "Starliner" can stay in space for 210 days when docked with the space station. In this case, Boeing has plenty of time to "wait for changes."

What if there is really a last resort? At that time, the person Boeing is least likely to ask for help may be the manned "Dragon" spacecraft that many netizens have the highest voice. Because in the contract of that year, in addition to the "Starliner", NASA also chose another manned spacecraft, that is, SpaceX's manned "Dragon" spacecraft, and the two are in direct competition. If Boeing asks for help from SpaceX midway, it is tantamount to actively admitting that the quality of its own products is not as good as that of its competitors, although this has long been known to everyone. The latter's manned "Dragon" spacecraft has successfully carried out more than 10 manned flight missions. And this gesture, which is close to surrender, is not only free advertising for competitors, but also actively ceding market share in related mission areas.

At this point, Boeing only has two theoretical options left - China's Shenzhou spacecraft and Russia's Soyuz spacecraft.

On July 3, 2024, Beijing time, the Shenzhou 18 astronaut crew successfully completed the second extravehicular activity. Source: China Aerospace News

From the perspective of technical feasibility, the docking system of the Soyuz and the Russian segment of the International Space Station is directly compatible, and Russia has been launching Soyuz manned spacecraft to the International Space Station for more than 20 years, and its docking operation is very mature. By then, the two American astronauts may be able to transfer to the Russian segment first, then enter the Soyuz spacecraft, and return to the ground accompanied by another Russian astronaut. However, the docking system of the Shenzhou spacecraft is not compatible with the International Space Station, and the average flight altitude and orbital inclination of the two are also very different.

From the perspective of institutional feasibility, Russia's Soyuz spacecraft is also a better option. Even today, two years after the outbreak of the Ukrainian war and when relations between the United States, the West and Russia have seriously deteriorated, the space cooperation between the United States and Russia around the International Space Station is still continuing. Of course, the level of cooperation between the two sides is far less than when American astronauts rented Russian spacecraft to enter space, and for high-risk activities such as space rescue, Boeing and NASA will inevitably consider more interests. However, the United States has long banned all official space cooperation with China, coupled with other policy barriers such as the International Traffic in Arms Export Regulations, the Export Administration Regulations, and the Foreign Investment Review Committee, even corporate space cooperation with China is difficult. Boeing transports NASA astronauts to the International Space Station and is subject to NASA's supervision. In this case, asking China for help obviously violates the provisions of the Wolf Amendment, and NASA will not agree to it in the first place. Of course, this is not certain, after all, NASA has begun to explore how to ask China for the lunar soil brought back by Chang'e 6 without violating the Wolf Amendment. It seems that when China takes the initiative to help and provide benefits, the Wolf Amendment can be "flexible".

Russian Soyuz spacecraft Source: China News Service

However, the real key issue is not the feasibility of China providing rescue, but whether China has an obligation to provide rescue, especially a legal obligation.

03. If Boeing comes to China for help, does China have the right to ignore it?

With the development of human space exploration, how to protect the lives of astronauts has become a realistic issue that cannot be avoided. In this regard, under the impetus of the majority of member states, international organizations with the United Nations as the core have formulated and adopted a series of institutional norms on regulating space activities and preventing risks in space activities, forming a relevant international space law system, among which the Outer Space Treaty and the Rescue Agreement are representative, both of which have permanent validity. China signed these two documents in 1983 and 1988 respectively.

Pictured is a still from the movie "The Martian"

As the first written law of the international space law system, the Outer Space Treaty establishes a series of guiding principles for space activities, including the rescue of astronauts. Article 5 states: "States Parties to the Treaty shall regard astronauts as envoys of mankind in outer space and shall render to them all possible assistance in the event of accident, distress, or emergency landing on the territory of another State Party or on the high seas. When astronauts make such a landing, they shall be safely and promptly returned to the State of registry of their space vehicle."

The Rescue Agreement provides more detailed provisions for rescue operations. Based on the circumstances referred to in Article 5 of the Outer Space Treaty, Article 1 of the Rescue Agreement explains how the Contracting Parties should provide assistance - first, notify the launching authority or, if it cannot identify and immediately communicate with the launching authority, immediately make a public announcement by all appropriate means of communication at its disposal; second, notify the Secretary-General of the United Nations, who will then use all appropriate means of communication to inform the public (Notify the launching authority or, if it cannot identify and immediately communicate with the launching authority, immediately make a public announcement by all appropriate means of communication at its disposal; Notify the Secretary-General of the United Nations, who should disseminate the information without delay by all appropriate means of communication at his disposal).

Article 2 states that if, owing to accident, distress, emergency or unintended landing, the personnel of a spacecraft land in territory under the jurisdiction of a contracting party, it shall immediately take all possible steps to rescue them and render them al necessary assistance. It shall inform the launching authority and also the Secretary-General of the United Nations of the steps it is taking and of their progress.

Article 3 adds the situation where astronauts land on the high seas or in any other place not under the jurisdiction of any state, and requires contracting parties with assistance capabilities to support search and rescue operations and inform the launching authority and the Secretary-General of the United Nations of the progress of the search and rescue. (If information is received or it is discovered that the personnel of a spacecraft have alighted on the high seas or in any other place not under the jurisdiction of any state, those contracting parties which are in a position to do so shall, if necessary, extend assistance in search and rescue operations for such personnel to assure their speedy rescue. They shall inform the launching authority and the Secretary-General of the United Nations of the steps they are taking and of their progress)

In summary, relevant international laws only require contracting states to do their best to search and rescue astronauts who have fallen to the surface, especially those within their own territory, and to keep the international community informed of relevant situations. Even for the very few space powers with manned space capabilities, there is no requirement for them to use personnel and equipment to go to outer space for rescue. Moreover, relevant international laws lack clear definitions of the "accidents" and "distresses" encountered by astronauts, leaving a lot of discretion, allowing contracting states to assess the situation of astronauts according to their own ideas and will.

According to current international law, China has no obligation to launch a spacecraft to rescue the two American astronauts unless they crash into China or the surrounding high seas. The manager of NASA's commercial manned project insisted that the two astronauts were "very safe" and "not trapped", so China had more reason to believe that they "felt good" and had nothing to do with any "accident" or "distress". Therefore, even if Boeing really lowered its status and asked China for help, it would only be rejected.

In short, in the case of the Boeing spacecraft astronauts being trapped, whether from the perspective of responsibility determination, mission feasibility or legal obligations, China is a pure outsider and has no need to participate in it. What is really worth noting is that although both are private aerospace companies with similar development models, the product development and operation levels of Boeing and SpaceX have already opened up a huge gap. The influencing factors and lessons behind it are exactly worthy of our in-depth thinking.