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Author: Kang Qin

Editor: Cui Liwen

Editor: He Zengrong

Since the beginning of 2023, the price war in the domestic automobile industry has lasted for a year and a half. In order to boost sales, on the first day of the second half of the year, that is, July 1,TeslaIt was the first to announce a disguised price reduction.

But what was unexpected was that just 10 days later, a well-known auto blogger posted an article saying that the store suffered heavy losses due to the price war.BMWThe sales will be reduced and the prices will be guaranteed starting from July. In response to this, BMW China responded quickly on July 12, saying that in the second half of the year, BMW will focus on business quality in the Chinese market and support dealers to make steady progress.

Then,BenzandAudiThey have also raised the terminal prices of their models, including Volkswagen,Toyota、HondaandVolvoSeveral brands have also decided to adjust their terminal policies from July, reduce terminal discounts, or no longer reduce prices further.

So why did BMW become the first company to officially announce its withdrawal from the price war?

By collating and analyzing the terminal data of the domestic luxury car market in the first half of the year (the number of passenger cars insured, including domestic and imported ones), the above doubts have been answered to a certain extent.

In general, relying on the rapid development of new energy high-end brands, especially Ideal,Ask the world、NIO、Zeekr、AvitaandEquation LeopardThanks to the efforts of domestic brands such as , a total of 2.512 million luxury cars were sold in the first half of this year, an increase of 11.3% over the same period last year, while the sales of passenger cars only increased by 3.6% year-on-year. The share of luxury cars in the overall market also increased to 25.1%.

At the same time, BBA, the three traditional giants in the luxury car market, are not having an easy time.

Although these three still occupied the podium in the first half of the year in this segment with a large advantage, with BMW even taking the top spot with 364,000 vehicles, the year-on-year growth of BMW and Mercedes-Benz was negative, while the seemingly lucky Audi only increased slightly by 2.7%.

This performance is achieved under the premise that some BBA models have made substantial concessions at the terminal.BMW i3The price of the car after the discount has dropped to around 170,000 yuan, which is almost half of the suggested price.Mercedes-Benz C-ClassFor example, the 200L has a bare car price of just over 200,000 yuan after the discount, and the discount amount exceeds 130,000 yuan.Mercedes-Benz EQEThe maximum discount is nearly 170,000 yuan.

also,BMW X1、Mercedes-Benz GLB、Audi A4LThe terminal discounts for models such as and A6L can also exceed 100,000 yuan.

Specifically, the most damaged BMW models in the first half of the year should beBMW 5 Series, only 40,000 vehicles were sold in the first half of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 43.3%.

Since the launch of the new generation of domestically produced models at the end of January this year, the sales of the BMW 5 Series, which had previously been stable at at least 10,000 units per month, have fallen off a cliff, with only 19,000 units sold from February to May. With the stimulation of terminal discounts of up to 120,000 yuan, the sales finally returned to 10,000 units in June, reaching 10,674 units. With the recovery of the 5 Series, coupled with the increase in sales of models such as the 3 Series and i3, BMW also ushered in its second positive growth this year in June.

The reason why Mercedes-Benz's decline in the first half of the year was greater than that of BMW was that it had two main selling models that suffered heavy losses:Mercedes-Benz E-Classand Mercedes-Benz GLB.

Like the BMW 5 Series, the sales of the Mercedes-Benz E-Class dropped significantly after the launch of the new generation of models at the end of last year. Only 21,000 units were sold in the first quarter of this year. It was not until the end of March that the price was gradually lowered and the sales volume in April rebounded to just over 10,000 units. However, it was still far from the level of 15,000 units in the same period last year. Therefore, the sales volume of the Mercedes-Benz E-Class in the first half of the year was only 59,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 36.2%.

Originally, Mercedes-Benz GLB's monthly sales were basically maintained at more than 5,000 units by relying on terminal discounts, but with the launch of the mid-term facelift in August 2023, the car can only hover around 3,000 units. Even if the terminal's lowest bare car price is quickly reduced to around 200,000 yuan, sales have not improved significantly. This caused GLB's sales in the first half of the year to fall 46.1% year-on-year to 22,000 units.

As for Audi, the only lucky one among the three companies, the actual situation is not optimistic.

In fact, in the first half of this year, Audi and Mercedes-Benz have been declining for five consecutive months. If it were not for the huge new growth in January, they would probably have also experienced negative growth.

Perhaps it is because the most direct competitors, the BMW 5 Series and Mercedes-Benz E-Class, both recovered their prices in January.Audi A6LThe sales volume hit a recent record of 24,000 units. In addition, the Q5L and A4L also sold 18,000 and 14,000 units respectively, bringing the brand sales volume to 82,000 units, an increase of nearly 45,000 units year-on-year. Therefore, Audi was able to barely maintain positive growth in the first half of the year.

In summary, whether it is BMW, Mercedes-Benz or Audi, they all hoped to guarantee sales in the price war by reducing prices in the first half of this year, but the effect was not ideal. Since sales and profits cannot be guaranteed, and a large price reduction will cause certain damage to the brand image, it is better to withdraw the price, which can at least alleviate the profit pressure of car companies and dealers.

The losses of the powerful BBA were so severe that the situation of the second-tier traditional luxury camp and super luxury brands can be imagined. In addition to Lexus, Volvo, Cadillac,Land Rover、Lincoln、Porsche, Jaguar,BentleyandMaseratiSales of brands such as and others fell year-on-year.

In turn, since reaching a record high of 236,000 vehicles in 2020, Lexus' sales in China have declined year by year. Even though some of its models began to offer different degrees of discounts last year and sales rebounded in the second half of the year, it was affected byLexus LMDue to the impact of the inability to open the car doors after the collision and the email incident, coupled with poor performance at the beginning of the year, Lexus still only sold 181,000 vehicles last year, still less than the 183,000 vehicles in 2022.

As prices continued to fall at the terminal level this year, coupled with a lower base in the same period, Lexus sold 83,000 vehicles in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%, making it the only traditional luxury brand to grow in the entire luxury car market.

However, behind this impressive achievement, its value has been greatly reduced.

As we all know, it is the "norm" for Lexus to increase the price before 2023.Lexus ESThe car also costs 20,000 to 30,000 yuan for bundled sales. However, this year, Lexus ES can basically be discounted by 50,000 to 60,000 yuan, and even up to 100,000 yuan in some areas. This means that the Lexus ES, which used to cost at least 300,000 yuan, can now be bought for just over 200,000 yuan.

Precisely because of this, Lexus ES sales in the first half of this year increased by 42.2% year-on-year to 55,000 units, which is also the main reason for the brand's growth in the first half of the year.

Volvo's situation is similar to Audi's, both relying on the new sales volume created in January. The reason for the slight decline in the first half of the year is that, except for the XC60, the sales of other main selling models such as S90, XC90 and S60 all fell. If the XC60 continued to sell at a lower price, Volvo might not have been able to reach 70,000 units in the first half of the year.

When the prices of BBA go down, the pressure on Cadillac, which has always been a cost-effective brand, is self-evident.CT5The terminal price has dropped by 70,000 yuan compared to the guide price.CT4The price of the car has also dropped to around 150,000 yuan, but the sales of its main models have still fallen sharply. For example, the sales of Cadillac CT4 fell by nearly 90% in the first half of the year.XT4andXT6The year-on-year declines were all over 50%, with the most popular CT5 also falling by 9.2%.

This resulted in Cadillac's cumulative sales in the first half of the year falling by nearly 30% to only 62,000 vehicles, which makes people wonder whether its total sales for the whole year can be maintained above 150,000 vehicles.

As for Porsche, the year-on-year figures for the past six months were negative, resulting in a year-on-year decline of 39.4% in the first half of the year. All its models fell by more than 30% year-on-year, and no model sold more than 10,000 units. The highest wasCayennePoor sales means slow cash collection. Due to the high unit price, if a large amount of inventory is accumulated, it will cost more, and dealers will have to bear huge financial pressure. It is not difficult to understand why dealers collectively protested against Porsche China's inventory pressure earlier.

In fact, it is not only Porsche, but also Bentley, Maserati,Rolls-RoyceandAston MartinThe sales of super luxury brands such as Toyota Motor Corporation (Toyota Auto) and Toyota Motor Corporation (Toyota Auto) were also dismal in the first half of the year, with all sales falling.

While BBA, second-tier traditional luxury camps and super luxury brands were almost wiped out, China's independent high-end brands, which are also in the luxury market, are experiencing a different picture: whether it is the old brand Hongqi, or electric brands such as Ideal, Wenjie, and NIO that specialize in the new energy market, they have basically all achieved good growth.

Although the vast majority of Hongqi's current sales are still traditional fuel vehicles, thanks to the rapid development of E-QM5 in the travel market, its new energy sales have also increased significantly. In the same period last year, new energy accounted for about 10% of its sales, and in the first half of this year it has expanded to about 20%.

The 24% growth of Hongqi in the first half of this year was mainly due to the fact that its new energy vehicle models created an additional 17,000 vehicles, exceeding the traditional fuel vehicles by nearly 5,000 vehicles.

Compared with Hongqi, what is more worthy of attention is the aggressive domestic high-end new energy brands.

For example, after Ideal surpassed Hongqi to become the number one domestic brand with 378,000 vehicles in 2023, it retained the title again with 194,000 vehicles in the first half of this year.

The biggest contributor to Ideal's excellent performance is its new model, which was launched in mid-to-late April and is also its first model with a starting price of less than 300,000 yuan.Ideal L6In May, the car sold 13,000 units, and in June it sold 23,000 units, setting a record for the highest monthly sales of a single Ideal model, contributing almost half of the brand's sales that month.

However, affected by the switch between old and new products at the beginning of the year and the poor sales of MEGA, among the many growing domestic brands, Ideal's 37.5% increase was only higher than Hongqi, but still far higher than the 11.3% of the luxury car market.

And Wenjie, backed by Huawei, was the biggest driving force for the growth of the luxury car market in the first half of the year.

As we all know, last SeptemberQJM7After its launch and large-scale delivery, the sales of the car began to grow explosively from October last year, with monthly sales soaring from less than 5,000 units to over 10,000 units, and in December it exceeded the 20,000 unit mark for the first time.

With the beginning of the yearQJM9The company has also started large-scale deliveries, with monthly sales at over 20,000 units in the first half of this year.QJM5The three models were also delivered in batches, with the sales exceeding 40,000 units for the first time in June, bringing the total sales in the first half of the year to 181,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 642.9%, creating a new increase of 157,000 units.

In addition to the above two, in the first half of the year, Weilai, Zeekr,Zhiji, Avita, Fangchengbao, Zhijie and Yangwang all performed well. Among them, the sales of Zeekr, Zhiji and Avita doubled. Fangchengbao and Zhijie, which have been on the market for less than a year, also sold nearly 20,000 units. Yangwang, which has a starting price of over one million, also sold 5,452 units.

Thanks to the joint efforts of these domestic high-end brands, the sales of domestic brands in the luxury market have gradually increased in recent years, exceeding one million units for the first time in 2023, with a market share of 25.1%, a record high. In the first half of this year, sales increased by 80.3% year-on-year to 832,000 units, and the market share has increased to 33.1%. This has also narrowed the gap between domestic brands and the largest camp in the luxury market, German brands, to 10 percentage points in the first half of the year.

Of course, not all new energy brands have achieved rapid growth. For example, Tesla and Smart have seen varying degrees of sales decline due to the influx of more and more competing products into the market and the intensified competition caused by price wars.

In summary, driven by the wave of electrification, the performance of the luxury car market in the first half of this year continued to be significantly better than that of the overall passenger car market. Among them, the share of the independent camp that has fully enjoyed the dividends of the new energy market has exceeded the 30% mark, while traditional luxury brands have almost all fallen.