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Author | Drunken Shark

Source of the article | Gelonghui Real Estate

The "sunlight plate" that votes with real money is born again.

andThis internet-famous property worth tens of millions of yuan was sold out, and it was born at an important turning point in real estate history.

The inversion almost disappeared

Hyde Garden, which opened on the fourth day, once again dominated the news.

Not only did it become Shenzhen’s first internet-famous property to be sold out on the first day of sale in 2024, it also once again proved that Shenzhen’s property market is not lacking in purchasing power.

Because it was close to half of the target total price, the apartment with an area of ​​more than 300 square meters was chosen without hesitation.

The opening of Hyde Park this time can be said to have taken place at a historical turning point.

First, on July 21, the overall requirements for how we will take the next five years were officially announced, which included the development direction of real estate in the next five years.

Second, on July 22, the central bank announced that the one-year LPR would be lowered to 3.35%, the five-year LPR would be lowered to 3.85%, and the standing lending facility rates would be lowered by 10 basis points.

It can be seen that a round of real estate reforms is ready to take off.

But this also means that the profits from the new purchases of Hyde Garden by the owners who won the bid three years ago have shrunk significantly.

The calculation is based on a 250-square-meter house in Hyde Garden Areas A and B.

About three years ago, the owner who chose Room 3702, Building 1, Area B, only had to borrow an additional 2.09 million yuan. Over a 30-year loan period, he would have to pay nearly 10 million yuan more in interest than the owner who chose Room 4001, Building 5, Area A this weekend. The monthly payment difference is about 34,400 yuan.

Nowadays, the prices of second-hand properties in the surrounding areas have retreated. For example, Anlan Mansion, which entered the market in 2018, had its unit price of 126.94 square meters fall to about 149,700 yuan per square meter in February this year. Tianjian Mansion had its unit price of 162.08 square meters fall to about 145,100 yuan per square meter in June this year.

So we can see that if we add the interest cost of holding,Compared with the surrounding second-hand prices, large apartments on high floors may not necessarily have a price gap.

At the same time, no matter how the second-hand houses of Hyde Garden owners who bought in July 2024 after the interest rate cut are sold in the future, they will have a crushing advantage over the owners of Hyde Garden District B who bought in November 2021.

Even if you buy it at a higher price, it will be more resilient against price drops after it becomes a second-hand property.

Therefore, property owners who bought into the property during the interest rate cut period have made a good deal.

Key points after the rate cut

The LPR adjustment will benefit millions of home buyers and existing owners.

For those who are about to buy a new house, they can save a few bowls of beef noodles every month from their millions of mortgage payments; for existing mortgages, they can also enjoy the current lowest mortgage interest rates when the mortgage rates are reset next year.

Take the popular property Hyde Garden as an example.

Before the adjustment, the total loan amount was 23.226 million yuan, the loan period was 30 years, the interest rate was 3.5%, the monthly payment in equal installments of principal and interest was 104,295.12 yuan, and the total interest was 14.3202 million yuan;

After the adjustment, the effective interest rate is 3.4%, the monthly payment in equal installments of principal and interest is 103,002.95 yuan, the total interest is 13.8551 million yuan, the monthly payment can be reduced by 1,292.17 yuan, and the total interest is reduced by 465,100 yuan.

It can be said to be an extra blessing for those who own houses or those who are buying houses.

If the buyer is a wealthy person with financial resources, the savings on mortgage interest will be more obvious.

However, from the perspective of buying a house, some people believe that compared with the loan interest of millions or even tens of millions, the savings from February to June when LPR=3.95% and the adjustment to LPR=3.8% in July are not that great.

In fact, as an important tool for monetary policy, interest rate cuts have a positive effect not only on home purchases, but also on the entire economy.

From the perspective of exchange rate,Lowering interest rates may reduce the yield on the domestic currency, causing capital to flow to countries with higher yields, thereby triggering a depreciation of the domestic currency.But it can also attract foreign investors to invest in the domestic market, thereby promoting the appreciation of the domestic currency.

In conjunction with the interest rate cut, the central bank also launched a combination of monetary measures, simultaneously lowering the open market 7-day reverse repurchase operation rate from the previous 1.80% to 1.70%, and the overnight, 7-day and 1-month standing lending facility rates were all lowered by 10 basis points.

The decline in the interest rate on the standing lending facility can guide banking and financial institutions to reduce the cost of lending to the real economy, stimulate corporate financing demand, and thereby stimulate corporate investment to expand production.

Therefore, we can see policy interest rate adjustments.The ultimate goal is to stimulate the real economy, reduce the overall financing costs of enterprises, and regulate economic fluctuations.

But in the context of real estate transformation, the central bank's interest rate cut has another major effect - it provides a solution channel for the subsequent debt repayment work.

After the interest rate cut, urban investment companies, real estate companies and some small and medium-sized financial institutions can issue new bonds at low interest rates to repay old debts.

Let me give you a simple example.

In the past, if you borrowed one dollar from a real estate company, the interest rate was 5%, and when it was about to expire, you had no money to pay it back. But now, if you borrow a dollar at a time, the interest rate is 1%.

So there is no need to do the math, as we all know it is more cost-effective to just borrow new money to repay old debt.

This is the same logic as when ordinary people buy a house, some people see that the interest rate of business loans is lower than the mortgage rate, and they will think of replacing the mortgage loan with a business loan.

Our focus for the next five years will include resolving real estate risks and debt issues.This is the KPI proposed by the conference.

Therefore, what the interest rate cut can really solve is not only to reduce everyone’s housing interest and encourage everyone to buy houses, but also to reduce the market’s financing costs, resolve current real estate risks, and stimulate economic growth.

These are the fundamentals.

The author's views do not represent the position of Glodon