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[Text/Anton Nierman, columnist of Observer.com, translation/Xue Kaihuan]

It seems that the Ukrainian authorities have to start taking Ukrainian public opinion seriously in order to end the war under conditions different from the previous "peace plan". A series of recent statements by the authorities, including Zelensky's statement, prove this.

Compared to their previous tough statements, they no longer mention the restoration of the 1991 borders. This is different from the position taken by the Ukrainian authorities in the past two years, especially after the failure of the Istanbul peace agreement. The authorities' recent statements have focused on "maintaining Ukraine's status as an independent country with access to the sea." Although Zelensky himself did not directly declare the abandonment of the "1991 borders" principle, he began to no longer emphasize this principle on various occasions, intending to downplay the topic.

In the Ukrainian public opinion field, the heat of peace talks began to rise, and representatives of various factions also called on the authorities to conduct peace talks with Russia. The parties had a fierce argument over topics such as insufficient Western aid and many restrictions on the use of aided weapons. The logic of the argument was this: "It is right to fight until the restoration of the 1991 borders, but if the West does not provide sufficient support for this, then we need to reach a ceasefire first."

Things are changing, what will this change lead to?

Iconic Interview

Ukrainian authorities are sending signals that their position on the conditions for ending the war is changing.

In an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer, Zelensky said it was necessary to "prevent Ukraine from being destroyed" and "ensure that aggression does not happen again". Zelensky said that Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO can ensure this: "If we don't have this, I believe we will face a huge risk of this enemy coming back... We need Ukraine's collective defense". In addition, Zelensky also repeated the old tune in some places, claiming that Ukraine needs to get some kind of "compensation" at the expense of Russia. Perhaps this is a hint that the West needs to transfer all frozen Russian assets to Ukraine (rather than just paying interest as it does now).

Key points: Zelensky did not mention the restoration of the 1991 border in his proposed conditions. The interviewer also specifically reminded Zelensky during the interview and asked him to answer the question of whether Russia should return the territory. But Zelensky did not respond. Obviously, this has deviated from the general line of "not giving up an inch of land" established by the Ukrainian authorities since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

The withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine is a crucial step in ending the conflict. For a long time, the "peace conditions" put forward by the Ukrainian authorities have always been the unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from regions including Crimea. The authorities have always stated that if Russia does not recognize this condition, it will never agree to negotiations, let alone comprehensive peace.

During the preparations for the June "Peace Summit" in Switzerland, the authorities did not include the issue of troop withdrawal on the forum's agenda in order to invite countries from the global South to attend. Now, Zelensky has also avoided this topic in his conversations with the media. What is important here is not only Zelensky's "cold treatment" of the issue, but also the fact that it was deliberately made public. After Zelensky's statement, the topic of "unconditional" peace talks has become significantly more popular in Ukraine. The author tends to think that this is intentional, more like "baiting" to test the public's reaction.

In recent comments on the "Moseichuk+" program, the well-known Ukrainian political commentator and pro-Zelensky Fesenko openly stated that the priority now is to preserve Ukraine's existence as an independent state and a "nation," and that the territories seized by Russia "can be returned later."

"Our main interest is not just the return of territory. We must protect the country and the nation, and protecting the country and the nation is the top priority now. This is the secret of our victory. The lack of some territory will not affect our victory," Fesenko said.

He also said that Zelensky's opponents are trying to use the current situation to put him in a dilemma: "They say: You should make peace, Ukraine cannot win the war due to the incomparable resources, but in this way, we will brand you a traitor and a sinner, and you will lose the war."

Fesenko's statement that "victory does not necessarily mean restoring the 1991 borders" has received strong reactions in Ukraine. Given that Fesenko has always been considered close to Zelensky and the Ukrainian presidential office, this is seen as an attempt by the authorities to test public opinion.

Balance: The dual challenge of negotiation and status maintenance

Let's recall that after the Swiss "Peace Summit", the Ukrainian authorities' tone on the issue of "peace talks" really began to change. They finally realized clearly that the authorities' previous uncompromising stance would not gain broad support from the Ukrainian people and non-Western countries, and change was imperative.

Some Western politicians support Ukraine to continue fighting. For example, French President Macron still puts "aiding Ukraine" first, but their ruling status in their own countries is being challenged. In the United States, Trump may be re-elected president, and he claims that he will find a way to quickly end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Therefore, the reason why Zelensky made such a statement is likely that the Ukrainian authorities are adjusting their rhetoric to the hardness of Trump's situation.

Trump's rhetoric is now the mainstream voice of the Republican Party, so the Ukrainian authorities are trying to align with the rhetoric of the Trump camp to some extent, so that once Trump wins the election, the authorities can adjust their policies immediately to avoid looking like a "stranger" or an enemy of the "Trump strategy." After winning, Trump may push Ukraine to negotiate with Russia in the first stage of his new presidency, but in any case, Zelensky has to take this situation into account and take into account the factor that Trump may win.

In addition, the Ukrainian authorities' position has also been greatly influenced by the current Biden administration. The authorities' change of position occurred at the "Peace Summit" and began with talks between Zelensky and US Secretary of State Blinken and his deputy Bass. After this meeting, Zelensky never mentioned "restoring the 1991 borders" again. This position was continued during the Swiss "Peace Summit", as well as the G7 meeting, Orban's visit to Ukraine and the NATO summit. Zelensky was forced to turn from ideal "formalism" to realistic politics.

The change in Ukrainian society's attitude towards the war is also prompting the Ukrainian authorities to change their tone. The desire of most people in Ukrainian society not to continue the war has forced the authorities to make a certain softening statement. The author believes that this does not mean that the Ukrainian people support the authorities' compromise with Russia, but that the Ukrainian people's attitude towards the war itself has changed. We can see that Zelensky is trying to adapt to this social demand. He wants to show that he is a person who acts in accordance with the wishes of the majority of Ukrainians.

The change in Zelensky's remarks reflects the change in Ukrainian public sentiment, which Zelensky and his team have been carefully studying. Through research, they found that Ukrainians are increasingly willing to negotiate with Russia. Although there are still some fanatics in Ukrainian society who do not agree to negotiate with Russia, "division" has long been the underlying color of Ukrainian society. Even if the authorities successfully restore the territory to the 1991 borders, it is difficult to reach a consensus within Ukraine. Zelensky is testing the public's attitude under pressure, trying to push the negotiations to a "reasonable" level and increase the consensus of Ukrainian society on this.

However, how the authorities explain this change to the public is also a problem, because they have already instilled in the public the old argument that they want to "cause a strategic defeat" to Russia within two years. The author believes that this problem is not easy to solve, and a too-rapid turn may be difficult for the public to accept. How to skillfully instill in the public the new idea that "negotiations are not for concessions to Russia, but for Ukraine's victory" is a major problem for Zelensky.

Zelenskyy will face many challenges, including maintaining national status, establishing security for Ukraine, obtaining various aids, and restoring destroyed infrastructure and towns. In addition, opposition parties like Poroshenko are still eyeing the situation. If Zelenskyy prefers a mode of stabilizing the situation and freezing the conflict, it will inevitably lead to strong criticism from the ambitious opposition and even fierce power seizure actions. Extreme forces such as the Azov Battalion will not be willing to let the war end. Therefore, the author believes that when Zelenskyy and his team talk about security issues, they will inevitably include the issue of their own status in the negotiation agenda. In order to maintain the stability of his own status, Zelenskyy will most likely ask the West to promise not to support the Ukrainian opposition and its seizure of power, but this will also further endanger Ukraine's national independence.

Of course, the authorities can also shift the blame to the West. Zelensky is doing this now, claiming that he is firmly opposed to "freezing the war", but in order for Ukraine to launch a counterattack, the West must provide the necessary weapons. Zelensky can easily attribute all the problems such as "ineffective counterattack" to insufficient Western aid, so that his "dovish stance" can be backed up.

The shift in public opinion and the trend led by bloggers

The new round of large-scale missile attacks by Russia on Ukraine on July 8 revealed a new trend in Ukrainian public opinion. Previously, after similar attacks, Ukrainian social networks would unanimously call for retaliation against Russia and continue the war until victory, but now the reaction is different.

Of course, there are still many people calling for revenge, but more people are calling on the authorities to conduct peace talks as soon as possible, including bloggers with millions of followers. They discussed the difficulties and unfeasibility of restoring the 1991 borders, and called it a "political game" that increased civilian deaths and fought for the West. They said that negotiations with Russia are inevitable anyway, so it is better to start negotiations as soon as possible to save the Ukrainians who are dying.

Ukrainian public opinion began to change after the complete failure of the "counter-offensive" in the fall of 2023. It became clear that the desire for a quick victory over Russia could not be achieved. This led to the increase in support for a quick end to the war, even if the 1991 borders could not be restored.

Vladislava, a famous blogger nicknamed "Millionaire", said on her social account that the news on July 8 made her "quite shocked". She believed that the war should end in time. "We need to let the clowns leave and negotiate for peace. Well, how long will this situation last? I hate this kind of political manipulation, both sides are the same."

Yulia, a Yandex blogger with 1.6 million followers, accused the authorities of enriching themselves during the war. "The world sees our country being plundered by our own government, families and lives being ruthlessly destroyed," she wrote.

"Children are dying in droves and the authorities are still unwilling to take steps to stop the war," wrote blogger Mira, who has 223,000 followers. "Can the war be stopped? I don't care about your politics as long as children stop dying in your political games."

Well-known political blogger Anna also publicly opposed continuing the war: "We have had enough of your 'perseverance' and 'overcoming difficulties'. I am not against 'overcoming difficulties', but we have paid too much." "When this country has nothing left, the people, children, troops, and even a single person are gone, what is the meaning of us?"

The bloggers were accused by the zealots of spreading a "very veiled Russian narrative" and asked the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) to deal with them. However, the SBU did not respond, which made many people suspect that the bloggers were trying to test the public's attitude towards peace talks on behalf of the authorities.

According to my observation, there have been such "peaceful voices" before, but they did not receive a warm response from the people. However, this time is different. Why has the attitude of the Ukrainian people changed? Because many people are getting more and more tired and angry, and they can't see a good way out of the current situation. Putting aside those "sounding" speculations, bloggers who advocate an early end to the war are both a manifestation of new social trends and a leader of new social trends. A large part of Ukrainian society is tired of war and is ready to accept "peace without illusions." Some bloggers feel this and want to merge with these emotions.

Unfortunately, the divisive undertones of Ukrainian society are far from fading. With the emergence of new trends, a new round of internal struggles is also brewing. What does the country need and what will be the next step? Compromise, "freeze" the conflict or fight to the end, Ukrainian society is far from reaching a consensus on these issues. As the situation develops, these issues will surface one by one.

The authorities have not yet made a clear response to the trend of the "social discussion", and they are still paying attention to the reaction of society. The current problem is that too many people already want to end the war as soon as possible, so I think it is no longer possible to suppress these voices as rudely as before.

If the Ukrainian authorities are really considering how to compromise on ending the war as we think, then they should call for negotiations as soon as possible and make preparations in the public opinion field early, instead of hesitating and waiting for the price as they are now.

Multi-party game and future trends under divergent conditions

Passive waiting is meaningless. How to conduct negotiations and who to rely on for mediation are issues that require careful consideration, especially the latter issue. Given the failed experience of the Istanbul negotiations, the "negotiation middleman" has become a key factor affecting the negotiations. Zelensky sent a signal through an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer, but the authorities have not yet given any solutions to technical issues.

After the Swiss "peace summit" that was intended to form alliances to put pressure on Russia ended in failure, I believe that the authorities are more likely to adopt a "closed-door consultation" model in terms of the form of negotiation to save face. There are still some variables in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and some issues still need Zelensky to think clearly. At least before the end of the year, real negotiations will not come.

Under the current situation, Russia can only accept peace talks and agreements that include both the United States and Russia. Direct dialogue between the United States and Russia is far more important than communication between Russia and Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine issue is only one part of the structural contradiction between Russia and the United States. Deeper issues such as nuclear weapons, arms race, and Russia's security space are more difficult to resolve than the Ukrainian issue. The West is secretly operating and trying to hold a second "peace summit." There have been reports that Russia will be invited to participate in this "peace summit," a "multi-party committee" on the Ukrainian conflict will be established, and the resolution of the Ukrainian issue will adopt the 1975 Helsinki model (the final document of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, the signing of which marked the easing of East-West relations during the Cold War, and the improvement of relations between Western countries and socialist countries).

Russia's conditions for ending the war are: the entire territory of the four regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson should be ceded to Russia, Ukraine's permanent neutrality and Ukraine's non-participation in NATO, and the lifting of all sanctions against Russia (including unfreezing assets). This does not fully match Zelensky's idea of ​​ending the war. He hopes that Ukraine will join NATO and that the West will transfer Russia's frozen assets to Ukraine.

Russia will not compromise either. Negotiations are essentially a bargaining chip exchange between Russia and the United States and the West. Russia must exchange Ukraine's compromise and concessions, otherwise Putin will not be able to explain to the Russians. For example, how will the post-war "spheres of influence" between Russia and the West be divided, and can all sanctions be lifted? On these issues, Russia will not give in, whether Trump comes to power or not.

We still don’t know whether Putin is ready to compromise on these issues, which will largely depend on the situation on the battlefield. Zelensky and his staff may also gauge public sentiment and the reaction of various groups and forces to the “unconditional peace plan”. Although there has been some loosening, the game between Russia and Ukraine will take time.

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