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The controversy caused by Luobo Kuaipao is getting bigger and bigger. Li Guoqing recently blasted Luobo Kuaipao. "Luobo Kuaipao is finally competing with taxi drivers for profits. Let's not talk about whether it is an AI bubble or a technological revolution. If it is a real technological revolution, we can accept the pain and change careers. But there are some things that AI cannot reach yet."

In Li Guoqing's opinion, Luobo Kuaipao is suspected of unfair competition. "One netizen sent the detailed data of a 17-kilometer test, which took 48 minutes and only cost 13.5 yuan for 17 kilometers. But in fact, according to the details, the starting price was 16 yuan, the mileage fee was 47 yuan, the waiting time was 18 yuan, and the long-distance fee was 19 yuan. The total discount was 86 yuan, and the actual payment was 13.5 yuan."

"If there is no discount, it is less than 100 yuan. Compared with taxis, there is no price advantage. In this case, if it does not provide subsidies and competes at actual prices, it may not be able to compete with manual taxis. Therefore, it first suffers huge losses, then drives away taxi drivers, and then raises prices to make huge profits, which is below cost. Of course, this is unfair competition. If the R&D costs are included, it is far below cost competition."

Carrot Run raises a question: Is it necessary for a country with a population of 1.4 billion to develop unmanned technology?

If what Li Guoqing said is true, Baidu Carrot Run actually does not have a cost advantage. In other words, if Carrot Run is priced according to the actual price, then its cost and fees are much higher than those of human drivers. If it is priced according to the actual price, the number of people riding it may drop sharply.

Many people are willing to ride it now, mainly because it is cheap. However, its cheapness is not the result of a reduction in product costs brought about by disruptive innovation, but rather an artificial subsidy. Baidu, as the operator, even has to bear the cost of accident liability compensation. The process of damage assessment and compensation is very complicated and difficult to estimate. If this part of the cost is taken into account, the current price is very unreasonable. It is expanding the market at a huge loss in the early stage. If this is the case, then whether this driverless revolution is an AI change or an AI bubble is very debatable.

Any technological change, in the final analysis, brings convenience to users, reduces costs, and improves efficiency. If costs are greatly increased, what is the point of artificially depriving taxi drivers of lower costs? If low prices are used as bait in the early stage, and high prices are used to harvest after the industry is monopolized, this will ultimately be detrimental to the long-term interests of consumers. Because it drives away more cost-effective manual drivers, it will eventually raise the overall cost of taking a taxi.

But should we pursue unmanned technology, represented by driverless cars? The impact is a chain reaction.

This issue is very controversial because the tide of the times is here, but this reality will trigger a series of chain reactions, and many industries and many people will be hurt.

First of all, online ride-hailing and taxi drivers. When driverless technology matures, the first thing that driverless cars will do is to take away the jobs of taxi and online ride-hailing industry drivers! According to statistics, there are more than 10 million online ride-hailing drivers alone. If you add taxi drivers, truck drivers, etc., the number is at least more than 20 million. What impact will it have on society if so many people suddenly lose their jobs?

In addition, if driverless driving is successful, it may trigger a copycat effect in all walks of life, and many industries will start to adopt unmanned methods, including unmanned supermarkets and unmanned factories, which are actually already being promoted. For example, unmanned supermarkets are already popular in many places. You can enter by scanning the code with your mobile phone, and check out directly after selecting the goods, without any contact with people. This model not only improves efficiency, but also reduces labor costs.

Many cashiers and stock clerks who used to work in supermarkets are facing unemployment.

Another example is the unmanned factory. With the development of artificial intelligence and robotics, more and more factories are beginning to adopt automated production lines.new energy vehiclesIn factories, automated robots are now becoming popular. These robots can work 24 hours a day without interruption, with maximum production capacity and efficiency. There is no need to buy insurance or pay wages. Workers who rely on physical labor for a living are facing the difficult reality of changing careers.

Many middle-aged unemployed people now work in express delivery, food delivery, and online car-hailing. However, the biggest competitors to these three jobs are unmanned technology. In the future, unmanned vehicles will be used more for express delivery and delivery. With the advancement of unmanned delivery, it is conceivable that these people may face unemployment again in the future.

In addition, will a large number of driving schools close?AutopilotWith the advancement of the technology, many people don't seem to need to learn how to drive or buy a car. Driverless cars are very convenient. Some netizens have calculated that driverless cars will save 700 billion yuan in household expenses for Chinese families. The reason is that with the popularization of driverless cars, people will no longer need to learn to drive. Based on a population of 1.4 billion, if each person spends 5,000 yuan to learn to drive, it will actually cost 700 billion yuan. When driverless cars become popular, every family will save tens of thousands of yuan in driver's license test fees.

When a large number of industries are impacted by unmanned technology, it will greatly affect people’s beliefs about fertility. One netizen said: “In a country with a population of 1.4 billion, young people are already facing the anxiety of high housing prices, high commodity prices, and medical education. In addition, the unmanned high-tech is becoming increasingly popular. How can modern people have enough sense of security to create a better living and development environment for the next generation?”

Therefore, to sum up, the development of unmanned technology has brought about a chain-like impact, from one industry to multiple industries, from one group to multiple groups, all will be impacted.

But the problem is, if we don’t develop unmanned technology ourselves, someone else will. If we are at the node of technological change,If we give up unmanned technology, the result will most likely be that we will fall behind others in the commanding heights of unmanned technology strategy.

If you fall behind in the early stage, it will be very difficult to catch up in the later stage, because no one knows what will happen under this trend. If you don't develop unmanned technology, foreign capital will enter this market. If domestic products don't come in, then the market may belong to foreign capital. Looms replace manual weaving, printing presses replace copyists, and emerging industries replace old industries. This is an inevitable trend. The United States is also giving Tesla andWaymoThe green light for driverless taxis.

The technology of the times is rolling forward. You may resist and temporarily relieve the pain, but what is coming will come eventually, it’s just a matter of time.

In a country with a population of 1.4 billion, it is crucial to develop an unmanned economy and balance technology and people's livelihood

Therefore, the contradiction lies here. People's livelihood is the economy, and the economy is people's livelihood. However, the development of science and technology will put many types of work at risk of extinction.

But for a country with a population of 1.4 billion, employment is one of the core goals of economic development.

What to do? For an individual, a speck of dust in the era can be a mountain on your head. Everyone needs to have a sense of crisis and a sense of self-improvement and learning. In this rapidly changing era, only by constantly learning new knowledge and new skills and having core competitiveness that cannot be replaced by machines can we survive better in the future.

How our various industries can balance the development of unmanned technology with the survival and employment of 1.4 billion people is very critical. The purpose of technological progress is to make people's lives better, but the fact is not so. Many people are just passively led by technology. In this process, the living space of the lower class is squeezed. Without work, there is no income. Without income, no one consumes. Without consumption, who will produce a large number of consumer goods and sell them to? Therefore, this has led to a new round of internal circulation.

In the final analysis, the development of unmanned technology is a dilemma. When old jobs are eliminated, new jobs will always be needed to fill the gap. Some netizens think that in the era of our parents, every household was a farmer. Wouldn’t everyone be unemployed now? The replacement of manpower by machines is unstoppable. We should explore new jobs instead of forcibly retaining old jobs.

But the problem is that this round of unmanned technology development is different from previous technological revolutions. Previous technological revolutions impacted one industry, while unmanned technology will sweep across all walks of life. If the development of technology does not have sympathy and care for the grassroots, it is likely to bring certain problems to social stability and security environment. When many people lose their jobs and hostility breeds, it will also aggravate the social contradictions caused by the gap between the rich and the poor and the harsh living environment.

Therefore, balancing people's livelihood and employment, releasing new employment space to fill the impact of replacing a part of the unemployed groups, as well as resettlement and training of the jobless groups and various assistance, and technological development taking into account the survival of the grassroots and humanistic care, may be the key to the smooth advancement of a series of unmanned technologies such as driverless cars.

Author: Wang Xinxi, senior TMT commentator. Reprinting without permission is prohibited.