Before editing:After experiencing the economic recession caused by the impact of the epidemic and the high inflation caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the global economy has gradually emerged from the haze and is in the process of a moderate recovery. Against this background, the global auto market continues to pick up. Except for the Japanese auto market, where sales have declined due to the fraud scandal, auto sales in other major markets have increased in the first half of this year, with most increases in single digits. It is worth mentioning that Russia, which was hit hard by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, achieved a high growth rate of 75% in auto sales in the first half of the year, partly due to the low base of the same period last year.Although the global auto market delivered a good performance in the first half of the year, it also faces severe challenges, such as the rise of international trade protectionism, intensified geopolitical conflicts, and uncertainties brought about by the European and American election season. These complex factors have had an adverse impact on the growth of the global economy and even the auto market in the second half of the year. In particular, in the European and American markets, due to high prices and constraints on supporting infrastructure, pure electric vehicle sales have cooled significantly, casting a shadow on the recovery of the auto market.USA:Hybrid hot pure electric cooling
According to data provided by Cox Automotive Consulting, new car sales in the United States in the first half of this year were about 7.93 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. In the second quarter, the US auto market only increased slightly by 1% year-on-year, highlighting the trend of weak market demand and slowing recovery. The company pointed out that although automakers and dealers have launched many car purchase incentives, the inventory level of new cars in the United States is still rising. The uncertainty of the economic outlook, interest rate cut expectations and the US presidential election has caused many American consumers to postpone car purchases.Jonathan Smoak, chief economist at Cox Automotive Consulting, said that the growth of the US auto market in the first half of this year was mainly due to the increase in wholesale sales rather than retail sales, and it is expected that the growth of US auto sales will slow down further in the second half of the year. "There are many uncertainties in the future, and we think it will be difficult to maintain the current growth momentum in the second half of the year." In addition, CDK, a software supplier for North American auto dealers, suffered a cyber attack at the end of June, which also had a certain impact on US auto sales. Some dealers were forced to postpone deliveries until the third quarter, which brought additional pressure to the market.
U.S. auto industry analysts pointed out that dealer inventory levels are rising, especially for pickup trucks and other higher-priced models, while relatively low-priced small cars and hybrid models are in short supply. As a result, the performance of major automakers in the U.S. market in the first half of the year was differentiated. Among them,Toyota、HondaJapanese automakers such as Toyota and Toyota have achieved high growth relying on hybrid models, while companies such as General Motors, Stellantis and Hyundai Motor have performed relatively weakly. In the first half of this year, although General Motors was still the automaker with the highest sales in the US market, its sales fell 0.4% year-on-year to 1.29 million vehicles; Toyota's sales in the United States increased by 14.3% year-on-year to 1.187 million vehicles. If Toyota maintains this growth rate in the second half of the year, it is very likely to surpass General Motors and win the title of "America's best-selling automaker." In addition, Honda's performance in the US market is also good, with sales in the first half of the year exceeding that of Stellantis, which has declined significantly.
It is worth noting that the pure electric vehicle market in the United States continues to cool down, with a year-on-year growth of only 7% in the first half of the year, reaching about 600,000 vehicles, accounting for 7.6% of the US new car market. The high price of electric vehicles has made many potential customers "back off". Although dealers offer considerable discounts, consumers still expect that there will be more room for price cuts in the future. In addition, data from Cox Automotive Consulting Company shows that in the second quarter of this year,TeslaThe share of pure electric vehicles in the U.S. fell below 50% for the first time, from 59.3% in the same period last year to 49.7%. This is partly due to the weak demand for pure electric vehicles in the U.S. and partly due to theFord, modern andKiaCar companies such as Tesla and others have launched new electric models, putting Tesla under great pressure.Europe:Electric vehicles lag behind
From January to June this year, car sales in the five major European car markets - Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Spain - all increased, with most increases of around 5%. In addition, like the United States, demand for electric vehicles in Europe is also relatively weak. According to data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, in May 2024, the number of new passenger car registrations in the EU fell by 3.0% year-on-year, of which pure electric vehicle registrations fell by 12.0%, plug-in hybrid vehicle registrations fell by 14.7%, and hybrid vehicle registrations increased by 16.2%.Factors such as slowing market demand, expiration of subsidy policies, mileage anxiety, uncertain economic prospects, and lack of affordable models have limited the further popularization of electric vehicles in Europe, especially pure electric vehicles. Taking Germany, Europe's largest auto market, as an example, the country's passenger car sales in the first half of the year increased by 5.4% year-on-year to 1.47 million units. During the same period, Germany's electric vehicle sales fell by 16.4% year-on-year to 167,000 units. The main reason is that the German government cancelled the electric vehicle purchase subsidy at the end of last year, and consumers' enthusiasm for buying cars has declined significantly. Among many automakers, Tesla's sales plummeted by 41.6% in the first half of the year. In addition to weak demand, there are also factors of intensified competition.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said that in the first half of this year, new car sales in the UK increased by 6% year-on-year to 1.007 million units, which was the first time that new car sales in the first half of the year exceeded one million since 2019. However, the UK car market achieved a relatively high growth in the first quarter and slowed down significantly in the second quarter. Like the UK, the French car market also had a weak recovery. After a 2.9% decline in May, the decline in new car sales in France widened to 4.8% in June, dragging down the overall growth rate of new car sales in the country in the first half of the year (a year-on-year increase of 2.8%).
Due to weak demand for electric vehicles, at the beginning of this year, many multinational automakers announced that they would slow down their investment in electrification and no longer talk about the topic of "banning combustion". On the contrary, many automakers said that they would continue to develop the next generation of internal combustion engine models and plan to launch new plug-in hybrid or hybrid models.Mercedes BenzAnnounced that it will increase investment in internal combustion engine models.
At the legislative level, the EU's attitude towards the "internal combustion ban" is also wavering. According to foreign media reports, after exempting synthetic fuels, the European People's Party (EEP), the largest group of legislators in the European Parliament, recently stated that it would seek to weaken the EU's plan to gradually phase out carbon dioxide-emitting vehicles in 2035. The EEP hopes to revise the "internal combustion ban" and promote the EU to "develop the most advanced internal combustion engine technology."India:Extreme heat "bakes" the auto market
The Indian auto market achieved double-digit growth in 2023, with new car sales exceeding Japan, ranking third in the world for the second consecutive year. However, after entering 2024, the country's auto market has lost its previous high growth trend. According to data released by the Federation of Indian Automobile Dealers (FADA), in the first half of this year, India's passenger car sales increased by 6.7% year-on-year to 1.964 million units; commercial vehicle sales increased by 5% year-on-year to 515,000 units.In June this year, India's passenger car sales fell 6.77% year-on-year to 281,000 units, the lowest level since September 2022. It is reported that since mid-May, northern India has continued to experience extreme high temperatures, with temperatures in many cities hovering between 45 and 50 degrees Celsius. Indian meteorological experts said the country is experiencing the longest heat wave since temperature records began. FADA pointed out that due to the recent heat wave in India, the flow of customers to Indian auto dealers decreased by 15% in June, many consumers postponed car purchases, and dealers' inventory levels have reached an all-time high.
According to FADA data, in the first half of this year, Maruti Suzuki remained the largest automaker in India, with a market share of 40.8%; Hyundai ranked second with a market share of 13.8%; followed by Tata Motors, Toyota and Kia, with market shares of 13.6%, 5.8% and 5.7%, respectively. According to Korean media reports, Hyundai's market share in India is gradually declining, from 17% in the first half of 2021 to the current 13.8%. In contrast, Tata Motors and Toyota's market share has steadily increased.
In order to reverse the downward trend, Hyundai Motor is vigorously increasing its investment in the Indian market. In August last year, Hyundai Motor acquired General Motors' previous automobile factory in India to use the factory to produce electric vehicles designed specifically for the Indian market. In addition, Hyundai Motor's Indian branch also plans to split and list. According to the prospectus submitted by Hyundai Motor, its Indian subsidiary hopes to raise up to US$3.5 billion through an initial public offering (IPO) on the Mumbai Stock Exchange in India, making it the largest IPO in India's history. Hyundai Motor plans to use the funds raised from the IPO to significantly increase its production capacity in India and make India the company's new global manufacturing center. Last year, Hyundai Motor produced 760,000 vehicles in India, and the company plans to increase its production capacity in India to 1 million vehicles this year.Japan:Fraud scandal hits industry hard
According to statistics from the Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA) and the Japan Federation of Light Automobile Associations, due to the suspension of shipments of some models caused by fraud in the certification application process of many Japanese automakers, new car sales in Japan fell 18% year-on-year to 2.127 million units in the first half of this year. Among them, sales of mini cars (displacement below 660cc) were 730,000 units, down 18% year-on-year, the lowest level in 13 years.The Japanese auto market has been in a state of decline since the end of last year. At that time, Toyota's subsidiary Daihatsu was found to have falsified safety test results in the past few decades. The company was subsequently ordered to suspend all production and did not resume full production until May this year. The reason why Japan's mini car sales fell to a 13-year low in the first half of the year is that Daihatsu is a well-known mini car manufacturer in Japan. In addition to Daihatsu brand models, it also provides Toyota,Mazda、SubaruThese brands are all affected by the OEM production of micro cars.
In January this year, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan required 85 domestic automobile manufacturers, importers, and equipment manufacturers to conduct an internal investigation into the product certification process over the past 10 years to confirm whether there were any violations and submit a report. In June of this year, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan reported that five companies, including Toyota, Honda, Mazda, Suzuki, and Yamaha, submitted violation reports, admitting that they had engaged in improper behavior in vehicle performance testing and other aspects, involving a total of 38 models and a scale of more than 5 million vehicles. The incident also led to the suspension of production and shipment of many models. From the perspective of car companies, affected by the fraud scandal, Toyota's sales in Japan fell 23% year-on-year to 636,000 vehicles in the first half of this year; Daihatsu's sales fell 61% year-on-year to 120,000 vehicles; Mazda's sales fell 31% year-on-year to 68,661 vehicles. Since some models of Suzuki and Honda were suspended from production and shipment until June, their sales in the first half of the year were not greatly affected, which were 375,000 and 342,000 vehicles, respectively, up 14% and 21% year-on-year, respectively. In addition,NissanSales in the first half of the year fell 2% year-on-year to 246,000 vehicles.Brazil:Sales of imported electric vehicles are booming
According to data from the Brazilian Automobile Manufacturers Association (Anfavea), from January to June this year, Brazil's auto sales increased by 14.6% year-on-year to 1.144 million units. Among them, passenger cars were 849,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%; light commercial vehicles were 229,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%; trucks were 56,767 units, a year-on-year increase of 8%; and buses were 8,860 units, a year-on-year decrease of 21.7%. Recently, Scotiabank said it maintained its previous forecast that Brazil's auto sales will reach 2.27 million units in 2024 and 2.38 million units in 2025.The double-digit growth of the Brazilian auto market is partly due to the surge in sales of imported cars, especially electric vehicles. According to data released by the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, in the first quarter of this year, Brazil's passenger car imports increased by 46.4% year-on-year to US$1.5 billion. Among them, Chinese cars alone accounted for about 40%, and imports surged 450% over the same period last year, most of which were electric and hybrid vehicles. According to data released by the Brazilian Electric Vehicle Association (ABVE), Brazil's electric vehicle sales reached nearly 80,000 units in the first half of this year, a significant increase of 146% year-on-year.BYD、Chery、Great Wall MotorsThe electric vehicle market in the country has performed well. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to May this year, Brazil became the largest market for China's new energy vehicle exports.
From January 2024, the Brazilian government will resume imposing import tariffs on environmentally friendly vehicles, including pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. Specifically, from January 2024, the tariffs on imported pure electric vehicles, gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles, and plug-in hybrid vehicles will be raised to 10%, 12%, and 12%, respectively, and adjusted to 18%, 25%, and 20% in July 2024, 25%, 30%, and 28% in July 2025, and all increased to 35% in July 2026. As tariffs gradually increase, Brazilian auto dealers have increased imports and increased inventory to meet consumer demand.
The Brazilian government has resumed collecting import tariffs, mainly to support the development of the local electric vehicle industry. In response to changes in tariff policies, more and more automakers are planning to start or expand localized production in Brazil. Multinational automakers including Volkswagen Group, General Motors, Stellantis, and Toyota have recently announced increased investments in Brazil, and many Chinese automakers have also made localized production arrangements in Brazil. Currently, Chery and Great Wall Motors have set up factories there, while BYD is building a new factory in Sao Paulo, Brazil, which is expected to be put into production by the end of 2024 or 2025.Russia:Chinese brands fill the market gap
Entering 2024, the Russian auto market is still maintaining a strong recovery trend. According to data released by the Association of European Businesses (AEB) headquartered in Russia, in the first half of this year, Russian auto sales increased by 75% year-on-year to more than 700,000 vehicles. Among them, 53.1% of the 130,700 new cars sold in the Russian market in June were from Chinese brands.The Russian auto market was hit hard after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, with sales plummeting by nearly 60% that year. Multinational automakers from Europe, the United States, Japan, and South Korea have withdrawn from the market, while Chinese auto brands have been filling the market gap left by their competitors, driving the recovery of the Russian auto market. In 2023, Russia's new car sales were 1.128 million, a year-on-year increase of 57.8%. Among the top ten brands in Russia's new car sales in 2023, Chinese brands occupy 6 seats, namelyHarvard、Chery、auspicious、Ou Mengda、Star Path、tank。
AEB recently raised its forecast for Russia's auto sales in 2024, predicting that new car sales in Russia this year will reach 1.45 million, higher than the 1.3 million forecast in January this year.The AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee noted in a statement that despite certain challenges posed by parallel imports and some regulatory measures, new car sales in Russia performed strongly in the first half of this year, so it updated its forecast.According to data provided by Russian industry organization Autostat, Chinese brands continued to dominate the Russian auto market in June this year. Among the top ten brands in Russian auto sales that month, eight were Chinese brands. The remaining two brands were Lada, a Russian local brand ranked first in sales, and BelGee, a joint venture brand created by Geely and a Belarusian company. Haval, Geely, Chery,Chang'anAll of them entered the top five in the sales list, and their monthly sales exceeded 10,000 units. Haval is still the most popular Chinese car brand in Russia, but Chery's five major brands (Chery, Omenda, Xingtu,Jietu, Jaecoo) are among the top ten in the list and are the Chinese automakers with the highest local market share.
