In the past two or three months, I went to several cities to research and view houses. During this process, I also happened to experience the changes in transaction prices and volumes in different city markets after the 517 new policy.From our observation of real transaction data on the front line, we can see that the transaction volume and transaction heat must beMay is hotter than April, June is hotter than May, and July is hotter than June.It’s just that everyone’s level of exposure to the market is different, so personal perceptions vary greatly.For example, there are two people selling houses, one selling an old, dilapidated and large house in the main urban area, and the other selling a good-quality second-hand house in the main urban area. Their perception of the market is completely different now.The friend who is selling an old and dilapidated house still has few customers, but the friend who is selling a second-hand house should now clearly feel that there are many more people looking at the house than before, so much so that he is now starting to consider whether he has made a loss, sold it too early, or should he still sell it?If you ask these two people now about their predictions for the future market, they are completely different.For example, if two friends are buying a house, one has a budget to buy a core area improvement project, and the other has a budget to buy a suburban just-needed house, then the scenes they see at the sales center must be completely different. The suburban just-needed sales center is still deserted, while the core area quality improvement project sales center has already started to be crowded.If you ask these two people whether they want to buy a house, their answers will definitely be different.So what should we do? Who should we trust?1. Pay attention to the market itself and be cautious when reading various news and information.What Ma sees is determined by people, and what ordinary people see is determined by who? It is determined by algorithms.2. Believe in trends, not consensus.There is a consensus that the current real estate market has reached a temporary bottom, but the disagreement is whether it is the lowest point.If you visualize the bottom, you will find that there are actually two bottoms, one is the left bottom and the other is the right bottom.At this stageconsensusis the left bottom, andtrendIs it the right bottom?I think we need to respect the market, and trends will definitely come before consensus.Land auctions were held in Beijing and Shanghai on July 4 and July 9 respectively.The land auction results were average, especially in Shanghai.Before this land auction, Shanghai first canceled the maximum price limit for land auctions, and then canceled the real estate linkage price requirement (to a certain extent, it relaxed the upper limit of the registered price of new homes).Then on June 24, a major event that shocked the real estate industry in Shanghai occurred. (There was a project called Zhonghai Shunchang Jiuli New House, with a unit price of 298,000 yuan, setting a new record for the price of new houses in Shanghai! Not only that, 49 units, with an average price of 80 million to 100 million yuan, were sold out in one hour.)Looking back at history, every round of market reversal is accompanied by three major factors:Daylight sales, record highs, and land king explosionsNow we have day-sale sales and new highs, the only thing missing is a record-breaking land sale.It can be said that the atmosphere has been created here, but in the end the highest premium was only 21%, and both were still the bottom price.Maybe you have no idea about this 21%.In the history of China's real estate, the year with the most land kings was 2016.In that year, Shenzhen Guangming auctioned a commercial and residential land with a premium rate of 159.79%. At that time, Shanghai also had a land king with a nominal floor price of 100,000 yuan/㎡, and a premium of 139%.Of course, this result at least tells the invisible hand behind the property market one fact: if we want the market to turn around and heat up, the current policies alone are not enough.It's very simple. The force you use to push a falling car and a car moving on flat ground is completely different.Everyone knows that this wave of real estate market downturn and housing price correction is the largest in the past 20 years.If you want to pull him up now, you must make two efforts. The first effort is to correct the previous mistakes, and the second effort is to change people's hearts.Therefore, conventional tricks are definitely not enough, and the ultimate trick will be available in July and August.In the second half of the year, everyone, fasten your seat belts, because your bosses are going to take you racing.Of course, at this moment, you have to make sure of one thing first, that is, whether you are on the car or under the car. If you are under the car, once the car starts to get angry, you will definitely be killed.You can imagine that from 2017 to now, M2 has doubled from 169 trillion to 301 trillion. There is so much money, but prices have not soared by the same amount. This is very, very abnormal.You think there are only three pools, where can they go? Even if they are always spinning, they should come out eventually, right?This is terrifying when you think about it.Coupled with the current situation, China's real estate development isThis is the largest housing price correction in more than 20 years.Putting these two things together and thinking about them carefully, it really makes my back cold!During this period, whether it was the new luxury houses in Shanghai being sold out in seconds, or Pengrui No. 1 selling 500 million yuan, or Shenzhen's judicial auction selling houses at 500,000 yuan, I wondered if these wealthy people had received some news, informing them that their money would be worthless soon and they should spend it quickly! ?If a person cannot understand the great trend of the times, then he naturally will not be able to find the path of his own life.
After all, each of us ordinary people is just an extremely insignificant chess piece on the chessboard of the times.
However, the true tide of the times is a strange force.It is silent most of the time, but if you really listen, it is deafening.In the past three or four years, whether for personal use or investment, almost 95% of people believe that they made a wrong choice when buying a house.What caused such extreme results?On the surface, it seems to be the falling property prices.But the root cause is that many friends jump back and forth between value investing and trend investing.If you visualize the two, you will see that the value is at the bottom and in the long run.Trends are like waves on the sea, moving in waves.So, which is better, value investing or trend investing?I think they are all good, but the key is that if you want to learn, you should learn the whole set. Don’t focus on value at low points, and don’t focus on trends at high points.To put it bluntly, when the property market is at a low point, people go to remote new areas to buy houses with the mentality of betting on the future. After a surge in housing prices, they buy high-quality properties in the core areas.When it comes to buying a house, you can buy it expensive, but don’t buy it too expensive. When the market falls, how painful it is, those who chase high prices know it well.Each good house has its own merits, and they all have corresponding prices.Now the question is, if you were asked to buy a house now, would you go for value investing or trend investing?I recommend trend investing.Next,I will share a set of trend investment and house selection methodology, containing the following:1. What factors should be considered and ranked when choosing a house?
2. Which cities should we focus on?
3. How to choose the sector?
4. How to distinguish the core sectors, mature sectors, emerging sectors, peripheral sectors, etc. as well as the corresponding purchasing groups and precautions.
5. How to combine location and block?
6. How to evaluate and select suitable product projects and properties?
The above housing selection methodology is also the one we used this year.Suzhou, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, ShenzhenIt is one of the commonly used methods for selecting sectors and projects through field research in cities.
This set of methodology is only for those who are destined to know it. If you need it, you can enterMi Zhai is a middle-class activist group, the threshold is very low,38.8 yuan, valid for one year.
This platform has everything related to macro-economics, finance, real estate, education, etc., which is related to preserving and increasing the value of your family's wealth.
This platform only produces valuable content. Here, you can learn, communicate, and interact with others.Mi Gongzi, Zhong Hao, Totoro, Dabai, Fang Qianping, Qiao Mei and many more are all on this platform.
Repost, like, watching, make arrangements?
