2024-07-17
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On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in June 2024. In June, the month-on-month decline in the sales prices of first-hand and second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities narrowed slightly, but the year-on-year decline continued to expand.
Among them, the number of cities where second-hand housing prices fell year-on-year has reached a peak. As of June 2024, all 70 cities showed a downward trend.This is the sixth consecutive month that second-hand housing prices in 70 cities have all fallen year-on-year.
Since the real estate market began to adjust in the second half of 2021, the number of cities where commercial housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities have fallen year-on-year has continued to grow, and the number of cities where second-hand housing prices have fallen is significantly higher.
Judging from the average transaction price of second-hand houses in the first- and second-tier cities we focus on, most of them have fallen to the level of 2018 and 2019, such as Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, etc.Some cities have already fallen below 2017 levels, such as Nanjing, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, etc. At the same time, there are also relatively strong cities, such as Shanghai.
It should be noted that although the transaction prices of second-hand houses in some cities have declined, the transaction scale has continued to increase. On the one hand, this is driven by favorable policies, and on the other hand, the concentrated transactions of low-priced houses continue to divert the demand for new houses.
We believe that second-hand housing will becomeThe overall traffic will continue to operate at a high level。
The National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in June 2024.
Year-on-year, both new and second-hand housing prices continued to decline, with the overall decline in new housing prices increasing from 4.3% at the end of May to 4.88% at the end of June, and the decline in second-hand housing prices increasing from 7.49% at the end of May to 7.87% at the end of June. Judging from the trend changes, the gap in the decline between new and second-hand housing prices has narrowed, and the decline in second-hand housing prices still exceeds that of new housing.
In fact, as of June 2024, second-hand housing prices in all 70 cities have fallen year-on-year for six consecutive months, and a large number of cities have reached their peak.
Judging from the trend, the number of cities with year-on-year decline in second-hand housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities has increased significantly since the end of 2021. In July 2022, the number of cities with year-on-year decline exceeded 60 for the first time, and then remained high until it reached a peak of 70 in January 2024, which has been 6 months so far.
On a month-on-month basis, the decline in the first-hand and second-hand housing price index in 70 cities in June narrowed.The overall decline in new housing prices narrowed from 0.71% at the end of May to 0.67% at the end of June, and the decline in second-hand housing prices narrowed from 1% at the end of May to 0.85% at the end of June. The number of cities with falling housing prices decreased. In June, the prices of newly built commercial housing in 64 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities fell month-on-month, and the sales prices of second-hand housing in 66 cities fell month-on-month.
From the cities we focus on,The average transaction price of second-hand houses in some cities has fallen to the level of 2018 to 2019, such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, etc.
First, Beijing.In the first half of 2024, the average transaction price of second-hand residential properties in Beijing was about 28,834 yuan per square meter, and the average total price per unit was about 2.579 million yuan per unit.It has basically returned to the level of 2018.
In terms of transaction structure, the number of second-hand residential transactions in Beijing in the first half of 2024 is about 75,322, of which about 48,846 are below 90 square meters, accounting for 64.85%. About 11,958 are 90-110 square meters, accounting for 15.88%.
Next are Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The average transaction prices in Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the first half of 2024 are around that in 2019.
In the first half of 2024, the average transaction price of second-hand residential properties in Guangzhou was about 28,743 yuan/square meter, and the average total price per unit was about 2.6367 million yuan/unit. The average transaction price of second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen was about 58,975 yuan/square meter, and the average total price per unit was about 5.3109 million yuan/unit.
Judging from the trend, the prices of second-hand houses in Guangzhou and Shenzhen reached their highest peak in recent years in 2021, then declined in 2022, rebounded slightly in 2023, and then fell again in the first half of 2024, reaching around the level of 2019.
Finally, in Hangzhou, the average transaction price of second-hand residential properties in Hangzhou in 2019 was about 31,506 yuan/square meter, and the average total price per unit was about 3.2901 million yuan/unit. In the first half of 2024, the average transaction price of second-hand residential properties in Hangzhou was about 31,883 yuan/square meter, and the average total price per unit was about 3.1103 million yuan/unit. The average total price per unit was lower than that in 2019.
The trend in Hangzhou is different from that in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The average transaction price of second-hand houses continued to rise from 2019 to 2022, and then began to fall from 2023.Currently, the average transaction price and average total price of second-hand houses in Hangzhou have returned to 2019.
Among the cities of focus,In some cities, the average price of second-hand houses has fallen below that of 2017, such as Nanjing, Tianjin, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, etc.
Specifically, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Tianjin in the first half of 2024 was 11,046 yuan/square meter, and the average total price of each unit was about 978,500 yuan/unit. In 2017, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Tianjin was 13,400 yuan/square meter, and the average total price of each unit was about 1.1181 million yuan/unit. The transaction price of second-hand houses in Tianjin is not only significantly lower than that in 2017, but even lower than the whole year of 2016, but it is still higher than that in 2015.
Similar situations also exist in Wuhan, Zhengzhou and Nanjing. The average transaction prices of second-hand houses in these three cities in the first half of 2024 were 14,625 yuan/square meter, 11,185 yuan/square meter and 24,058 yuan/square meter respectively.Both are significantly lower than the levels for the whole year of 2017.
In addition to the cities where second-hand housing transaction prices have dropped significantly, we also found that some cities among our key focus areas still have strong prices, such as Shanghai.
From 2009 to 2017, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Shanghai increased significantly.After 2017, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Shanghai began to level off, and has remained around 40,000 yuan per square meter to date.
The average transaction price of second-hand houses in Shanghai in the first half of 2024 was 40,758 yuan/square meter, a slight decrease from 40,854 yuan/square meter in 2023, but still remained at a high level.
But if we look specifically at the various districts in Shanghai, we can find thatAlthough the average price of second-hand houses in Shanghai remains stable, there is a clear differentiation within each region.
Among them, the average transaction price in some areas remains at the level of 2022 to 2023, and the average transaction price of second-hand houses in some areas has returned to the range of 2016 to 2018.For example, the transaction prices of second-hand houses in Jinshan, Chongming, Putuo, Yangpu, Hongkou and Baoshan have fallen below the average transaction prices in 2017.
Overall, the current average transaction price of second-hand houses in various cities has declined to varying degrees compared with previous years. Unlike new home prices which are affected by factors such as registration and price limits, second-hand home prices react more directly to the market, and the actual market situation behind this is not optimistic.
Recently, we have also seen some positive factors accumulating. For example, after the new policy on May 17, the scale of second-hand housing transactions in some cities continued to increase, and boosted some new housing market transactions. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics also showed that the month-on-month decline in the first- and second-hand housing price index in 70 cities has narrowed. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai have turned to increase for the first time this year, up 0.2% and 0.5% respectively.
We believe that as favorable policies continue to be released and implemented, market confidence and expectations are expected to gradually recover, thereby promoting a recovery in sales. The real estate market will continue to bottom out and repair, thereby driving prices to stabilize.
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