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Today, the National Bureau of Statistics released the housing price index of 70 large and medium-sized cities in June 2024. The data showed that among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the month-on-month decline in commercial housing sales prices in various cities generally narrowed.

Data shows that the sales price index of newly built commercial housing in 64 cities fell month-on-month, 4 cities less than 68 cities in May; 2 cities remained unchanged; and 4 cities saw a month-on-month increase, 2 cities more than 2 cities in May.

Among them, Shanghai led the way with a 0.4% increase, Xi'an and Jilin increased by 0.2%, and Sanya increased by 0.1%. Lanzhou led the decline with a 1.5% drop, and Wenzhou fell by 1.4%.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, believes that the housing price index indicators of 70 cities in June showed positive changes, namely, the month-on-month decline showed signs of narrowing, which fully demonstrates that the foundation for market stabilization has gradually strengthened after the "517 New Policy".

01

The month-on-month decline in each city narrowed

Specifically, in June, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.6%, 1.2% and 0.7% respectively, while Shanghai rose by 0.4%.

The sales price of newly built commercial housing in second-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month, the same as last month.

The sales price of newly built commercial housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.6% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

In June, the sales prices of second-hand houses in first-tier cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, Beijing and Shanghai saw their prices rise for the first time this year, up 0.2% and 0.5% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell 1.5% and 1.0% respectively.

The sales price of second-tier cities’ second-hand homes fell by 0.9% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.

The sales price of second-hand houses in third-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, the same as last month.

In June, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing decreased month-on-month in 64 and 66 cities respectively, both decreased by 4 from the previous month.

The sales prices of commercial housing in all types of cities fell year-on-year.

In June, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 3.7% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 2.4%, 9.3% and 7.7% respectively, while Shanghai rose by 4.4%.

The sales prices of newly built commercial housing in second-tier and third-tier cities fell by 4.5% and 5.4% year-on-year, respectively, an increase of 0.8 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.

In June, the sales prices of second-hand homes in first-tier cities fell by 9.0% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 7.8%, 6.3%, 12.4% and 9.5% respectively.

The sales prices of second- and third-tier cities' second-hand homes fell by 7.9% and 7.7% year-on-year, respectively, with the decline widening by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

02

Slightly stabilized, but still needs to be consolidated

Statistics show that in June, the price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities across the country increased by -0.7% month-on-month and -4.9% year-on-year.

Among them, although the month-on-month growth index is falling, the decline is slightly narrower than the statistics in May, which is mainly due to the increase in the number of cities with rising housing prices. Yan Yuejin believes that the current housing price index has entered a critical period of "slightly stabilizing but still needs to be consolidated."

Judging from the month-on-month growth data of the new home price index in first-, second- and third-tier cities in June, there are currently positive signals in first-tier cities. The month-on-month decline in their housing price index has narrowed significantly, indicating that they have played the role of a pioneer in this round of property market recovery, which fully demonstrates that cities with good urban fundamentals have the foundation to recover first.

The number of cities with rising new home prices has increased from 2 to 4, which is also a positive signal, meaning that the overall real estate market is recovering and the number of recovering cities is increasing.

Judging from the current market feedback from various regions, this is related to the positive release of local policies, stabilization of housing prices, changes in housing purchasing mentality, etc., which in turn has enabled some good properties and good projects to recover first, and also supported a new round of recovery in related cities.

Looking at the month-on-month growth data of housing prices in first-, second- and third-tier cities in June, they were -0.4%, -0.9% and -0.9% respectively; the year-on-year growth rates were -9.0%, -7.9% and -7.7% respectively.

From the data changes, the decline in second-hand housing data in first-tier cities has obviously narrowed, which is also related to the good second-hand housing transactions in first-tier cities. In the second-hand housing market in Shanghai, small-sized apartments have been traded well, which objectively brings about a good trend of stabilizing prices.

Yan Yuejin analyzed that the second-hand housing prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing and Nanjing have shown a month-on-month increase. This is a very good market feature, that is, the second-hand housing prices in some large cities have recovered first, which also shows that the policy effects in such cities are positive and obvious. This also shows that other cities may have similar logic in the future, and the market will also have positive performance and trends.

The second-hand housing market has entered the recovery stage from the previous deep adjustment, which is of positive significance.

First, the decline in the housing price index has narrowed, which is related to the fact that some cities, especially key first- and second-tier cities, have recovered first. The recovery of such cities also has a good demonstration effect on other cities.

Second, the price-performance ratio of second-hand houses in some cities has increased after price adjustments, especially for second-hand houses in good locations and good regions, the market performance is even more positive.

From this perspective, the real estate market may see differentiation in the future, that is, the prices of good properties will begin to stabilize, while the prices of other properties will generally remain in the process of adjustment.

Editor: Chen Lixiang

Proofreading: Yang Lilin