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after the chinese stock market experienced an epic rise, the sustainability of the market outlook has become a focus of market attention. next, in addition to tomorrow's highly anticipated national development and reform commission press conference, what policy directions and data should investors pay attention to?

citi believes that we should focus on changes in fiscal deposits, changes in household deposits and money growth. goldman sachs analysts believe that for the stock market to continue to rebound, m1 growth needs to exceed m2.

minsheng securities said that whether policy efforts can stabilize fundamentals is the key to continued improvement in market expectations, and post-holiday fiscal follow-up is a high probability event. gf securities emphasized that whether this round of market is a wave or the starting point of a bull market, the key point of victory is december.

citi: focus on three things; goldman sachs: m1 needs to grow faster than m2

citigroup said that data on new loans and new social financing in september may remain stable, and there may be no room for upward growth in monetary base growth. but credit data may still provide initial clues to stimulus policy through changes in details. investors need to pay close attention to three things.

1. fiscal policy: government bond issuance is very important, but changes in fiscal deposits are even more important. exhausting the annual approved quota is a sine qua non for budget revision, and fiscal deposits help quantify fund deployment.

2. family: the focus is on deposits. with the strong rebound in the last week of september, it will be interesting to see how the household deposit figures evolve.

3. monetary growth: it is expected that there will not be much upside in september, but if there is an upward trend, both m1 and m2 growth may echo the fiscal policy deployment.

goldman sachs analyst borislav vladimirov also emphasized that if the stock market rebound is to continue, then m1 growth needs to exceed m2. social finance data in august showed that m1 money supply continued to fall, and the negative scissor gap between m1-m2 growth rates further expanded.

minsheng securities: post-holiday financial follow-up is a high probability event

tao chuan of minsheng securities said that whether policy efforts can stabilize fundamentals is the key to continued improvement in market expectations. the press conference of the national development and reform commission after the holiday is just the beginning of the series. the subsequent press conferences of other economic ministries and commissions such as the ministry of finance are also worth looking forward to.

in addition, the certainty of the fed's interest rate cut cycle combined with the uncertainty of the us election means that the current round of domestic policy shifts will neither stop abruptly nor be completed in one step. the policy rhythm before the holiday is not pulse-like, and fiscal follow-up after the holiday is a high probability event.

gf securities: the key to victory lies in december

liu chenming of gf strategy said that in the past five trading days, the main broad-based index and style index of a-shares have increased by around 25%, which is an overall increase in valuation. the speed is really rare. as for whether this market trend is a wave or the starting point of a bull market, liu chenming believes that the key to victory lies in december:

if the fiscal tone in 25 years is positive, investors are expected to embrace a procyclical bull market. after the recent rapid rebound, the overall a-share market (excluding financial oil and petrochemicals) has rebounded to 2.2x pb, while the interim ttm roe is around 7.4%.

if the fiscal tone for 25 years is positive (the target deficit rate is significantly increased), there is likely to be an expectation of a rebound in roe. similar to the past four times, a-shares can still be regarded as growth stocks, so the current pb is still at the bottom. the beginning of december may be the starting point of the procyclical asset bull market.

if the fiscal tone remains flat in 2025, the market may switch back to dividend assets again.

in other words, if the central economic work conference at the end of the year does not significantly adjust the fiscal tone for next year, then the current valuation level of 2.2x pb for the overall a-shares (excluding financial petroleum and petrochemicals) may not be underestimated, and the market may switch back to roe at dividend assets with a 10-14% range (middle circle) and pb are not expensive.