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author: jiang yue

during the national day, i would like to give you some good news.

a few days ago, policies were released to promote the real estate market to "stop falling and stabilize" by cutting interest rates, lowering down payments, and acquiring existing land, and another package of policies was officially implemented -

first-tier cities have relaxed purchase restrictions.

guangzhou has completely canceled purchase restrictions, shenzhen has canceled purchase restrictions in non-core areas, shanghai has relaxed social security to one year in outer ring areas, and beijing has relaxed purchase restrictions. in addition, there are also supporting policies such as changing the value-added tax from 5 to 2, reducing the down payment ratio and other supporting policies...

existing mortgage loans have been officially reduced.

decreased uniformly by 30bp.

a series of market actions seem to be sending a signal——

to rise.

what kind of rise is it?

let’s look directly at the data.

1. trading volume.

coordinates are shanghai.

on september 26, 552 second-hand houses were sold;

on september 27, 607 units were sold;

on september 28, 872 units were sold;

the transaction volume of second-hand houses in shanghai continues to rise, and on september 28, it hit the highest transaction volume in two months.

at the same time, shanghai's luxury housing market is even crazier.

cuihu phase 6, with an average unit price of rmb 100 million, was sold out on the same day, and the houses with a total price of rmb 355 million were taken away without a second's hesitation.

beijing, shenzhen, hangzhou and other places are also good.

in the fourth week of september, the transaction area of ​​second-hand houses in the three places increased month-on-month.

year-on-year, only beijing’s transaction area decreased.

next,

trading volume will continue to rise.

because policies such as the relaxation of purchase restrictions and the reduction of down payment ratios have just been implemented, the released purchasing power has not yet been reflected.

2. transaction price.

be aware that landlords everywhere are trying to raise prices.

for example,

after shenzhen china resources city’s crazy sales of 8 units in the past two days, the landlord couldn’t hold back and directly jumped by more than 8 million.

a house of 150 square meters was sold for 20 million the day before yesterday, but now it is asking for 28.88 million.

for example,

a certain community in hulixiang, xiamen, was originally negotiable for 4.3 million, but now it is sold for 4.5 million;

the number of houses in jinshang area of ​​huli jumped from 1.99 million to 2.2 million;

there is a house in wuyuan bay with a direct price adjustment of 700,000.

for another example,

in hangzhou, a landlord sold his house for more than 400,000 yuan in more than three months.

the talks were about to be concluded, but as soon as the new deal came out, the talks fell apart.

next,

there will be more landlords raising prices.

because of the timely follow-up of the latest policies, it gave everyone great confidence.

3. developers raise prices.

the unit price of all the company's properties for sale in jinshaludao real estate in western chengdu has been increased by 2%;

chengdu jiahexing increased the unit prices of all properties for sale by 2%;

a developer in qingdao raised the price of properties for sale by 300 yuan/㎡;

the unit price of evergreen jinshuichen garden in zhengzhou, owned by henan zhuokai real estate, increased by 2%

……

the above is the specific situation,

after the may 17 new deal, the real estate market finally showed a prosperous appearance.

then, here comes the core question.

after this wave of new policies, will the market officially look up and take off?

given the current situation, most of us can actually see only three words:

window period.

because,

now only the volume increase is evident.

the data is there and cannot be faked.

the transaction price is currently only a unilateral price increase by the seller.

for new homes, developers want to increase prices;

for second-hand houses, landlords want to increase prices.

sellers want to raise prices for two reasons.

1. the decline was too severe before.

in the past few years, our housing prices have been falling continuously.

house prices in beijing have fallen for 17 consecutive months year-on-year, shanghai has fallen for 16 months, and shenzhen has fallen for 18 months... when converted, they all fall in years.

so far, among the four first-tier cities, housing prices in guangzhou have fallen to 2017 levels, and the other three first-tier cities have fallen to 2016 levels.

how bleak can it be if housing prices fall back to 2016?

let’s look at it from a family perspective.

if your family owns a house, then it has fallen in recent years——

the losses range from hundreds of thousands to millions, and even worse, millions.

the severity of the tragedy ranges from mild to severe, from working in vain for a few years, to working in vain for half a life, to the end of this life...

let me give you a personal experience——

the house in my hometown in the small 18th-tier county,

in 2021, more than 2 million were sold.

houses with a listing price of more than 1 million are still on the market...

no one can deny that house prices have plummeted in recent years.

that's not all!

looking back on past bailout policies,

lifting purchase restrictions, lowering down payments, lowering mortgage interest rates... although the policies are different each time, the effects are similar——

the medicine only works for a while.

with the new deal, the transaction volume increased, but the transaction volume stalled, and then the landlord began to doubt life, and then continued to compromise and reduce prices.

especially after the 517 new deal.

seeing a wave of big policies coming, it seems like a climax after the announcement.

for the next four months, everyone looked forward to it.

as a result, a change in the economic goals of the top-level meeting was expected——

efforts will be made to complete the economic and social development goals and tasks throughout the year.

before it was done with determination, now it is done with hard work.

there are no new policies and no new expectations, so some landlords have lowered their listing prices again.

let me give you another personal example——

in june 2024, a house in hangzhou was listed for 4.2 million;

in july, the lowest price in the community was 3.95 million;

in august, the lowest price in the community was 3.7 million;

in september, the lowest price in the community was 3.5 million.

wave after wave of rhythm, price cuts again and again.

therefore,

houses in many places are oversold.

developers are much the same.

over the years, various promotional activities such as free parking spaces and "buy one get one free" have been carried out frequently, and prices have been reduced.

so,

as soon as the latest policy came out, everyone couldn't help but start adjusting prices.

there's nothing i can do, i've lost too much, i'll get some blood back if i can.

second, there are some landlords who are extremely confident.

as mentioned above, the price of china resources city has increased by more than 8 million yuan.

this type of landlord probably expects to be full and wants to make back all their previous losses.

the above is the seller’s basic plan:

sellers who want to return some blood to ship goods;

high-expectation sellers looking to make a killing;

there is also a category of sellers who take advantage of the policy and actively ship goods.

there are the most sellers of this type.

obviously,

sellers did not reach a consensus on price increases.

the market is still a buyer's market.

buyers will not appreciate these price increases.

in this way, the reason for the increase in trading volume is obvious——

oversold housing and policy arbitrage space.

after the signal that "house prices have stopped falling and stabilized" has clearly appeared,

the oversold housing stock on the market had room for policy arbitrage, so a lot of money poured in.

let’s go back to the new policy itself.

they are all policies targeting first-tier cities.

what does it mean?

the policy is finalized.

other cities have long since stripped down, leaving only first-tier cities with little room for maneuver.

next, cities all over the country will have to fight with bayonets.

the leading cities have industry, population, wealth, and even some policy support. this battle still needs to be fought. as for other cities, there is really nothing else to do except to feel the market public opinion atmosphere under the new policy.

relaxing policies in first-tier cities will only accelerate urban differentiation.

this,

isn’t it just a window period?

it is a window period for shipments in many cities;

it is a window period for many improvements and replacements.

take advantage of policy at every opportunity.

during the current window period, we will do three things.

1. shipping.

get rid of the bad bids quickly.

please pay attention to the key words in the new policy——

to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, we must strictly control the increment, optimize the stock, and improve the quality of commercial housing construction.

in fact, the quality of houses on the market is getting better and better.

for example,

the room acquisition rate is over 100%.

after the introduction of new floor area ratio regulations in many places, the housing acquisition rate can reach 100%, which is equivalent to a change of direction and the elimination of public rental.

higher housing acquisition rate = more space = better house type.

you said, how can the three-bedroom house worth more than 100 square meters in your hand compare with others?

for example,

there are more and more houses with aluminum panels, floor heights of more than 3 meters, and clubs and swimming pools.

you said, how does it compare to the paint tray in your hand with a floor height of 2.8m and no clubhouse or swimming pool?

for another example,

there are more and more affordable housing in various places.

even in many areas where demand is high, affordable housing has the final say whether the market is chaotic or not.

you said, how can i compare the price with others for investment projects that are just needed?

therefore, we can take advantage of this window to ship.

it's okay if we lose some money, but don't get stuck.

don't worry about missing the mark.

if the house in your hand is being sold by others, even if the market does rise, it has little to do with you.

2. replacement.

those who need improvement and replacement can start.

i have to say that the prices of some improved disks now make me jealous.

for example,

the first batch of benchmark residential complexes delivered in hangzhou in the past few months cost about 8.5 million, but now they are less than 8 million, and they have dropped by 500,000 or 600,000 in one or two months.

since the policy says to stop falling and stabilize, don't hesitate.

the price you buy may not necessarily be the lowest price, but it must be the bottom price, and that is enough.

furthermore, by replacing the mortgage, with the same monthly payment, the interest rate will be lower and the loan amount will be larger.

it will actually be easier to improve the replacement against the market trend.

3. hold steady.

core assets, calm down and stay stable.

for the core assets of leading cities such as the first and second tier cities, at this juncture, if there is nothing urgent, the best thing to do is to stay put.

first of all, in the new round of policies, leading cities will be the first to stop falling and stabilize, so the prices of such core assets will naturally have bottomed out.

secondly, the future market will be differentiated.

what is needed is just needed, what is invested is invested.

only core assets have investment attributes.

the threshold for investment is getting higher and higher, and the requirements for funds are also getting higher and higher.

therefore, if you sell the core target now, it will be more difficult to be shortlisted in the future.

now, all there is to do is wait.

wait for the new policy to boost trading volume!

no matter how optimistic we are,

when more buyers are willing to buy at a premium, the price can be pushed up.

because this policy is different from the previous ones and has become the consensus of the market.

this time is really different!

this time there is a fed rate cut;

this time, in addition to direct real estate policies, there are also policies on the monetary side, capital market side, etc.

this time,

it’s not just real estate that’s saved, it’s the economy that’s saved, it’s the whole thing!

we turned the steering wheel fully to the right and have just returned to the right road.

but,

the difference this time is limited to the head city.

as mentioned above, the current policy has no relevance to the vast majority of cities, and only the leading cities still have policy focus.

therefore, friends who want to increase prices, first think about a question -

is the target in my hand an asset in a first- or second-tier city or a core asset?