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it’s halfway through the national day holiday. according to multiple properties for sale, the holiday effect has been released and the policies have been favorable, and the number of people looking at the properties and transaction volume have increased significantly. currently, the property market has entered a period of unprecedented policy easing, and institutions expect market sales to see marginal improvement in the fourth quarter.

// national day golden week returns //

during the national day holiday this year, sales offices in beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen were quite busy, and online signings for new homes also picked up significantly. national day golden week,the real estate market in beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen rarely reappears with hot buying scenes。

the national day holiday is over, and according to many real estate properties for sale in shenzhen, the popularity of on-site viewings has not diminished. the holiday effect has been released and the policies have been beneficial. home buyers have greatly increased their confidence in the shenzhen real estate market’s new policies. the number of on-site viewings and transaction volume have increased significantly compared to before the new policies. .

the first day of the national day golden week,the number of visits to commercial housing in guangzhou surged by 50% to 100%, and the transaction volume also increased by 20% compared with the weekend. some projects sell 25 units a day, earning 350 million yuan in revenue; some project sites have full parking spaces, and customers have to queue up to view the properties.

the person in charge of the new world tianfu project in liwan district, guangzhou said, "as soon as the new policy came out, our phone calls were overwhelming that night." many real estate projects such as new world kaiyuewan, guomao yunshang, and china overseas jiangtaili are also extremely popular. , the number of visits and transactions increased significantly compared with usual times.

on the first day of the national day holiday, the sales centers of projects such as china shipping dajing and nengjian tianhe lu yufu were packed with seats.

on the first day of beijing’s new property market policies, some properties sold over 100 million yuan in a single day.. poly beijing "succeeded on the first day, with strong sales of 187 million yuan, 9 hot sales, celebrating the country"; china merchants xi received more than 100 visits in a single day, and subscribed for 8 units worth 125 million yuan.

there are already signs of hot real estate sales. on the evening of september 29th, the "shanghai seven regulations" were first introduced. some landlords jumped the price overnight, and some buyers negotiated and signed contracts in an emergency that night. the intermediaries were too busy to have time to eat.

// house purchase subsidies launched in many places //

according to news on october 5, more than 50 cities have introduced local real estate market optimization policies, and commercial housing sales in many places have increased.

we learned from the ministry of housing and urban-rural development that since the end of september, various regions have successively introduced real estate optimization and adjustment measures, and the market has responded positively. during the national day, the number of house inspections and visits, which reflect the willingness to buy houses, increased significantly. sales of commercial housing in many places increased to varying degrees, and market confidence recovered. according to statistics from the ministry of housing and urban-rural development, according to general feedback from cities that carry out promotional activities, since the national day holiday, the number of visits to most projects participating in the promotion has increased by more than 50% year-on-year.

for example, from october 1st to 3rd at noon, the number of new house viewings in beijing increased by 92.5% compared with the same period last year, the subscription volume increased by 2 times, and the number of second-hand housing viewings increased by 104.1% compared with the same period last year. some properties in guangzhou received more than 150 visits per day, an increase of 200% compared with usual. according to preliminary statistics from hunan province, the number of new home sales increased by 106% month-on-month, and the number of second-hand home sales increased by 80% month-on-month. according to preliminary statistics from the china index academy (sichuan), the number of visits to sample survey projects in sichuan province increased by an average of 70% compared with before the holiday, and the transaction conversion rate increased by an average of 140% compared with that before the holiday.

in order to promote consumption in the housing market, zhejiang tongxiang, zhejiang jiashan county, hangzhou yuhang district, henan province, handan city and other places have launched home purchase subsidies: the maximum subsidy is 50,000 yuan per unit; hunan zhuzhou even allows house prices to drop by 20%.

jiashan county, zhejiang: a subsidy of 30,000 yuan/unit for new houses purchased with an area of ​​less than 90 square meters; a subsidy of 40,000 yuan/unit for purchases of new houses with an area of ​​90 square meters or more and less than 144 square meters;subsidy of rmb 50,000/unit for areas above 144 square meters (inclusive)。

tongxiang, zhejiang:the maximum subsidy for purchasing a new house before the end of the year is 50,000 yuan/unit, supporting provident fund payment of down payment.

yuhang district, hangzhou: for households purchasing newly built commercial housing in towns and streets,a one-time subsidy of 50,000 yuan。

henan province: provide subsidies to individual consumers for items and materials needed for renovation of old houses, partial renovations of kitchens and bathrooms, and aging-friendly renovations.the maximum limit for each set is rmb 20,000。

handan city: promulgated the implementation details for the payment of house purchase subsidies and the housing "trade-in" activity plan, providing a house purchase subsidy of 1%-1.5% of the transaction price.the maximum subsidy is 30,000 yuan。

zhuzhou, hunan: for those who meet the group purchase conditions, they can purchase 10 or more new commercial housing units at one time.the price reduction for group buying online signing shall be controlled within 20% of the declared price.。

// has the property market stopped falling and rebounded? //

recently, promotional activities in many places have achieved effective results. the long-awaited home buying wave has reappeared during the national day golden week, achieving an increase in both volume and price.

on september 25, after several cities under poly development proposed "price guarantee plans", a large number of projects have recently announced the withdrawal of discounts or price increases with the support of market enthusiasm.

the "xue shili" project in xiamen island jointly developed by china shipping, international trade and lianfa announced a discount of 2%; c&d's project in jimei district, xiamen, jianfa liyue project also stated that it would recycle a first-opening discount of 4%.huade tongyu announced price increases of 2% for two projects currently on sale in zhuhai.; zhengzhou also saw its first price increase project.

several projects of china construction yipin in beijing such as huaxiang no. 1, yihe public relations, yujing star city, yujing star city·yuanqi, daxing star city, etc. announced that they will take back the discount of 2% on october 8. in addition, similar news has come out about beijing jingneng xixianfu, wutongshanyu and other projects.

after the introduction of the new deal, many developers seem to see hope that real estate will stop falling and stabilize. at the same time,the “old for new” policy is also helping the real estate chain to recover.。

since the issuance of the "old for new" document, in terms of the trade-in of consumer goods, 115 national standards focusing on new standardization needs in automobiles, home appliances, home furnishings, emerging consumption and other fields have been approved and 30 have been released.

since the implementation of shanghai’s new round of trade-in subsidies, as of september 30, in less than a month,driven the city’s transaction volume of all categories to nearly 900 million yuan. nanjing has launched a real estate “trade-in” program to help real estate recover.

driven by policies, the consumption potential of the domestic home appliance market continues to be released. according to data from the ministry of commerce, as of 0:00 on september 29, 5.11 million consumers purchased 7.11 million units of eight major categories of home appliances, enjoying central subsidies of 6.403 billion yuan, driving sales to over 33.5 billion yuan. among them, green smart products are highly favored. among the eight categories of home appliances, the sales of first-level energy efficiency products accounted for 92.53%.

// organization: improvement in the fourth quarter //

from the perspective of real estate data, real estate in the first three quarters is still mainly about destocking, and sales pressure is still there.

a report from the china index research institute shows:the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies from january to september was 2.96994 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.8%. from january to september, the total land acquired by the top 100 companies was 532.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.1%. as real estate companies' land acquisition fronts shrink, only real estate companies with high-quality land parcels in some popular cities are actively participating in auctions, but low-price sales are still the norm in most cities.

ccb international securities said september sales performance was weak and the increase was lower than expected considering the seasonal peak of the "golden september and silver ten" periods. the failure of "golden nine" sales to achieve a significant rebound reflects sluggish market sentiment and a wait-and-see strategy among potential homebuyers.the implementation of policies such as lowering loan interest rates for existing housing and down payment ratios for second homes in the "924 new deal" will help sales performance in october, especially in first-tier cities。

the china index research institute predicts that after the central government releases clear signals in the near future, relevant policies may be quickly implemented, and in conjunction with the intensification of fiscal and monetary policies, real estate expectations are expected to improve.market sales are expected to see marginal improvement in the fourth quarter。

minsheng securities said that land transfer prices in 23 key cities in september increased month-on-month, and the premium rate level increased. regarding the market outlook, minsheng securities said that at the end of september, all front-line real estate policies released favorable policies for city-specific real estate policies. it is expected that the overall transaction volume will stop falling and stabilize in october. as the direct beneficiaries of the new policy benefits, there is still room for new home transactions to increase.

cric real estate research center also said that it is expected that the overall transaction volume of new homes will stop falling and stabilize in october, and first-tier cities will become direct beneficiaries of the new deal. in the first nine months of this year, poly development ranked first with sales of 242.1 billion yuan, followed by china overseas real estate and vanke real estate, with sales of 198.8 billion yuan and 180.49 billion yuan respectively.

due to the frequent benefits from the central government to the local governments at the end of september, the "924" national congress first launched a number of major policies, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio, lowering the policy interest rate, lowering the interest rate of existing mortgage loans, lowering the down payment ratio of the second home, increasing the ratio of central fund support for refinancing, and continuing to the "financial 16" and other issues in the period, and then the politburo meeting set the tone to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and then the core front lines such as shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen followed up, and the "four limits" policy continued to be optimized and adjusted. based on the expectations of positive policies,the overall transaction volume in october may stop falling and stabilize, and as the front-line direct beneficiaries of the new policies, there is still room for increased volume in new home transactions.。

china galaxy yang chao said that for real estate, we must first realize the long-term nature of cyclical destocking. if you want to look at houses and stocks in the real estate industry, the competitive landscape will definitely be closer to the leading central state-owned enterprises.

(wind combines cctv news, sina finance, brokerage research reports, etc.