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accelerate the layout in many ways! hydrogen commercial vehicles are facing good development opportunities, and the annual output value of the industry chain will reach 12 trillion

2024-10-06

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data from the china association of automobile manufacturers shows that from january to august this year, domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles were 303,000 units, with a penetration rate of 15.1%, while the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 45.6%. in contrast, the new energy process of domestic commercial vehicles still needs to be accelerated.

according to data released by the ministry of transport, the number of trucks in the country at the end of 2023 was 11.7097 million. compared with the 336 million cars, the proportion of heavy trucks is very low. however, emissions from heavy trucks are as high as 54%, accounting for more than half of the automotive industry. it is not difficult to see that the commercial vehicle market, represented only by heavy trucks, still needs to accelerate energy conservation and carbon reduction.

judging from the main technical routes in the current market, there is a significant trend in the transformation of diesel commercial vehicles to hydrogen fuel and natural gas. zhang wenchen, chief analyst of power equipment and new energy at huajin securities, previously said that china's fuel cell vehicles started from urban buses and buses and gradually expanded to other models and application fields such as heavy trucks. using hydrogen as vehicle fuel is more environmentally friendly and in line with the development trend of the times.

according to the development goals of the "medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (2021-2035)" during the "14th five-year plan" period, there are about 50,000 fuel cell vehicles, a number of hydrogen refueling stations have been deployed, and the amount of hydrogen produced from renewable energy reaching 100,000 to 200,000 tons/year, achieving carbon dioxide emission reductions of 1 to 2 million tons/year. according to the china hydrogen energy alliance, by 2025, the output value of my country's hydrogen energy industry will reach 1 trillion yuan; by 2050, hydrogen demand will be close to 60 million tons, and carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by about 700 million tons. hydrogen energy will play an important role in my country's terminal energy accounting for more than 10% of the system, the annual output value of the industrial chain reaches 12 trillion yuan.

but looking only at the automotive field, according to relevant media reports, as of now, there are about 20,000 fuel cell vehicles in my country, and there is still a lot of room for development.

in fact, with the goal of reducing carbon emissions for commercial vehicles, many provinces, cities and companies have successively laid out hydrogen energy tracks. according to statistics from the china hydrogen energy alliance research institute, at the local two sessions in early 2024, 22 of the 31 provincial administrative regions included hydrogen energy in the "government work report", and the number of provinces mentioning the development of hydrogen energy continues to increase year by year. .

according to an incomplete review by a reporter from "daily economic news", in addition to hydrogen energy equipment companies, companies in cleaning equipment, steel, automobiles and other industries are currently involved in the field of hydrogen energy.

image source: photo by miao shiyu, a reporter from miaojing;

recently, cimc enric and anshan iron and steel co., ltd. jointly announced that the coke oven gas hydrogen production co-production lng project invested and constructed by anshan iron and steel cimc (yingkou) new energy technology co., ltd. (hereinafter referred to as anshan iron and steel cimc) was officially put into operation in bayuquan, liaoning. it is reported that ansteel cimc is a joint venture established by cimc enric (shenzhen) and ansteel energy technology co., ltd. (hereinafter referred to as ansteel energy technology), a subsidiary of ansteel co., ltd.

"our current hydrogen energy production is in short supply. once produced in the park, it will be transported to sugar factories, glass factories and other places for use as combustion-supporting materials. it will also be provided to operating vehicles in the local transportation field in liaoning province in the future." cimc enric executive director and president yang xiaohu said in an interview with reporters.

the reporter learned that the project mainly produces high-purity hydrogen and lng by separating and purifying coke oven gas by-products of steel companies. hydrogen is used in hydrogen smelting and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; lng is used to replace diesel and industrial coal burning, which will meet the needs of steel mills and surrounding customers have demands for clean energy such as hydrogen and lng.

from the perspective of the upstream of the industrial chain, the production of hydrogen in this project belongs to the current relatively mature technical route. public information shows that hydrogen production routes are roughly divided into hydrogen production by reforming fossil energy represented by coal and natural gas; hydrogen production by industrial by-product gas represented by coke oven gas, chlor-alkali tail gas, and propane dehydrogenation; hydrogen production by electrolysis of water. big route.

however, industry data also shows that the current market size of hydrogen energy has not reached large-scale, and the return period of cost investment is long. the business model of hydrogen energy has always been one of the pain points for the large-scale development of the industry.

in this regard, cimc enric told reporters that the project adopts the coke oven gas hydrogen production co-production lng business model, the hydrogen attribute is "blue hydrogen", and the project has certain replicability. the reporter learned through interviews that the project produces about 15,000 tons of hydrogen per year, and the annual output of lng is about 100,000 tons. based on the hydrogen market guidance price of 35 yuan/kg, cimc enric initially estimated that the annual output value of the project would be approximately 1 billion yuan, and the project’s payback period is expected to be approximately 6 years.

in fact, the steel industry, as an important basic industry in my country's national economy, is also one of the industries with high carbon emissions in my country. under the guidance of the "double carbon" goal, the steel industry's carbon reduction and green development are imperative. cctv news reported that recently, the national development and reform commission and other departments issued the "special action plan for energy saving and carbon reduction in the steel industry", which mentioned the goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 53 million tons by 2025 through the implementation of energy-saving and carbon-reducing transformations and energy-using equipment updates.

the reporter also learned that ansteel group, the parent company of ansteel co., ltd., aims to reduce its total carbon emissions by 30% from the peak by 2035, becoming the first large steel company in china's steel industry to achieve carbon neutrality.

yang xiaohu revealed to reporters that cimc enric has established cooperative relationships with a number of steel mills and plans to sign ten similar projects in the next five years. longzhong information hydrogen energy analyst gao lin also told reporters that domestic companies in high-carbon emission industries such as steel and coal chemicals can not only produce hydrogen, but also have transportation application scenarios for steel and coke. the purchase of hydrogen energy heavy trucks can also deduct part of the energy. consumption indicators, with the support of multiple favorable factors, baosteel and many other companies have replaced some fuel heavy trucks.

it is worth noting that various data show that the hydrogen energy industry has broad development space in the future.

zhiyan consulting stated in a recent research report that my country has become the largest hydrogen producer in the world. in 2023, the national hydrogen production will be 36.862 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. as of the first half of 2024, a total of 1,262 hydrogen refueling stations have been built around the world, of which 456 are in china, accounting for 36.1% of the world's total. it is the country with the largest number of hydrogen refueling stations in the world.

from the perspective of the hydrogen energy industry chain, hydrogenation infrastructure is an important link in the utilization and development of hydrogen energy. hydrogen from different sources is pressurized by a hydrogen compressor, stored in a high-pressure storage tank, and then supplied through a hydrogen filling machine. hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are filled with hydrogen. the accelerated construction of infrastructure will also further promote the development of the hydrogen energy industry.

guangming.com previously reported that based on the carbon peak vision, my country's annual demand for hydrogen will reach more than 37.15 million tons and 130.3 million tons in 2030 and 2060, accounting for more than 5% and 20% of final energy consumption respectively.

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