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september is the traditional peak sales season for the real estate market. judging from shenzhen’s september transactions, the local market is still hovering at the bottom.

according to cric data, the transaction area of ​​new commercial residential buildings in shenzhen in september 2024 was 250,000 square meters, a month-on-month and year-on-year decrease of 30% and 17% respectively, and a 14% decrease from the average monthly transaction level in the first half of the year. in the first nine months of this year, the transaction area of ​​new commercial residential buildings in shenzhen was 2.73 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11%.

in terms of sales, the sales rate of new homes in shenzhen increased by 2 percentage points in september compared with august, but the sales rate in september was only 12%, which was 18 percentage points lower than the 30% sales rate in september 2023.

"shenzhen's new home sales in september both declined year-on-year and month-on-month to varying degrees, mainly because buyers still have a wait-and-see attitude when purchasing houses, and residents are not very enthusiastic about buying houses," said a cric analyst.

in terms of price, according to data from the china index institute, in september 2024, the price of new residential buildings in shenzhen fell by 0.67% month-on-month and 1.36% year-on-year.

sun hongmei, a senior analyst at the south china branch of the china index institute, pointed out that shenzhen's property market demand was weak and confidence was weak in september, and home buyers had a strong wait-and-see mood. the continued price-for-volume exchange in the second-hand market also had a certain impact on the new home market. the city's commercial housing transactions continued that month. fell.

although the "golden nine" of shenzhen's real estate market is not good enough, after shenzhen introduced a package of new real estate policies at the end of september, the local market showed signs of improvement.

on september 29, shenzhen introduced policies to stabilize the property market, optimize housing purchase restrictions, increase the number of homes purchased by shenzhen residents in peripheral areas, and reduce the minimum down payment ratio for the first home to 15% and the second home to 20%, and exempt value-added tax. the term is reduced to 2 years.

"although the new policies introduced by shenzhen on september 29 will only be officially implemented on october 1, the shenzhen property market has already seen obvious signs of 'silver ten' on september 30." analysts at le youjia research center said.

according to monitoring data from leyoujia research center, on september 30, the transaction volume of second-hand residential buildings in shenzhen leyoujia stores increased by nearly 40% month-on-month, which was the highest single-day transaction point since february 2021; the transaction volume of new homes increased by 24% month-on-month. it is also at a high point in the past 2 years. in addition, the number of second-hand sales at shenzhen leyoujia stores has been at a high level for nearly three months for many consecutive days, and market transactions are active.

according to statistics from the shenzhen housing association, in the 39th week of 2024, there were 966 second-hand housing units (including self-service units) in shenzhen, a month-on-month increase of 22.9%. affected by the positive expectations brought by the policy level, the number of second-hand houses in shenzhen has rebounded to a certain extent.

"shenzhen's latest new property market policies will boost residents' confidence in home buying and release demand for home purchases, which is expected to form very good market expectations. shenzhen's property market transaction volume will increase in october." sun hongmei said.

analysts at leyoujia research center also believe that with the implementation of shenzhen's specific optimization policies on "9.29", market activity will rebound in the later period. "with the help of many major policies, the shenzhen property market may have a 'golden ten' in october this year, not just a 'silver ten'."

zheng shulun, president of centaline real estate (mainland china) south china and general manager of shenzhen centaline, pointed out that the adjustment of shenzhen’s purchase restriction policy has released people who have not lived in shenzhen for less than one year. if this part of the purchasing power can be released, it will generate considerable driving force.

"a key factor affecting the direction of the real estate market is the relationship between supply and demand. an increase in demand will be a great benefit to the market. you must know that in the shenzhen market, non-shenzhen buyers account for 70%; in addition, shenzhen registered residents families can buy more units in non-core areas, and the new purchasing power is also considerable, which can also accelerate the destocking pressure in non-core areas. therefore, although there is still room for relaxing purchase restrictions, the policies introduced at the end of september will have a big impact. it plays a big role in stabilizing the market," zheng shulun said.

it further pointed out that in the short term, the supply of second-hand houses in shenzhen may increase, and developers will also take advantage of policy and market trends to promote new houses. next, the market will usher in a large number of new houses and second-hand houses. the new property market policies introduced by shenzhen will effectively promote the increase in demand from many aspects and are expected to stabilize the market. generally speaking, if the market transaction volume continues to increase and the trend is obvious, when the transaction volume rises to a certain level, house prices will naturally stabilize and possibly rise.

"with the introduction of major policies, shenzhen real estate may have kicked off the second half. the real estate adjustment cycle that has lasted for several years may have come to an end, and it is expected to usher in a new round of rising cycle. however, the beginning of the rising cycle has the initial trend may not be sharp or obvious, but may show a gradual upward trend," zheng shulun added.