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daily economic news data map of a project marketing center in shanghai

in the past two days, three groups of house buyers have successively made appointments with shanghai landlord ms. lan for face-to-face negotiations on october 7. this time, her psychological price has increased from 2.2 million yuan to 2.5 million yuan.

"they took the initiative to ask me out!" on october 4, ms. lan told the reporter of "daily economic news" that just half a month ago, a buyer came to ms. lan through an intermediary to bargain and asked if she could sell it for 2.1 million yuan. , ms. lan couldn't accept it for a while, and even hesitated to sell it as soon as possible.

after the introduction of the new deal, the enthusiasm of home buyers was ignited again. although ms. lan has expressed her willingness to increase prices, there are still too many calls to make appointments for viewings.

editor's note: on september 29, shanghai released seven policies to loosen restrictions on the property market. among them, the number of social security or personal tax years for non-shanghai residents purchasing housing outside the outer ring road is "replaced from 3 to 1"; the minimum down payment ratio for a second home is 20%; and the number of years for vat collection and exemption is "replaced from 5 to 2".

price jump of 300,000 yuan, leaving enough safety cushion

as soon as the "shanghai seven articles" new policy came out, news of the jump in second-hand housing immediately flooded various social media platforms.

"but the house price has suddenly increased by 650,000 yuan, and the cost of buying the next home has risen instead of falling. who would be willing to take over?" he said.

liu yi revealed that some landlords in central locations also joined in the fun and raised prices. they previously listed the property at nt$5.6 million. in fact, his psychological price was nt$5 million, but no one took notice. now the reserve price has been raised to nt$5.5 million.

some landlords also have their own considerations for price increases. "2.5 million yuan, if we talk about it, it will be 2.4 million yuan, and if we talk about it again, it may be 2.3 million yuan." ms. lan said that she should also leave enough safety cushion for herself.

li xiaoyi, a senior second-hand house trading broker, analyzed to every reporter: "for second-hand houses, the areas outside the outer ring are still a bit good. social security is changed from three years to one year, but the effect is limited. based on past experience, most house buyers themselves have already some of them have shanghai registered residence and have worked in shanghai for many years and are qualified to buy houses. changing social security from 3 to 1 will not increase their purchasing power much. "

“the more the stock market rises, the more housing prices will be pushed up.”

but some landlords are keeping their cool.

several landlords who are listing their houses for sale told reporters:

“if the price doesn’t jump, there will be only a few people looking at the house and it won’t be sold.”

"only when the stock market rises a little more will housing prices be pushed up."

taking pudong new area as an example, every time reporters saw on the beike mini program, the proportion of houses with reduced prices in various major sectors still accounted for an absolutely high proportion. for example, as of the end of september, in the beicai section in the south of pudong, there were 985 houses with reduced prices and only 59 houses with increased prices. the average listing price fell by 11.1% in the past year; in the jinqiao section in the northeast, there were 813 houses with reduced prices and 813 houses with increased prices. there were only 56 units, and the average listing price fell by 12.2%.

however, many areas, such as xuhui district botanical garden, tianlin and other areas where "old, broken, small and small" account for a large proportion, have a certain number of houses with increased prices, but generally the proportion of the total houses does not exceed 10%.

in fact, whether it is actively "exchanging price for volume" or selling at a higher price, the shanghai market has long expected the implementation of the new policy. starting from the "stopping the decline and returning to stability" setting the tone, the online signing data of second-hand housing transactions are already available it rose sharply and reached 872 units on september 28, becoming a rare high in the past two months.

since the national day holiday is only one working day after the new deal, travel has diluted the enthusiasm for home buying. every reporter saw from shanghai online real estate that shanghai’s second-hand housing transaction volume dropped significantly during the holiday, with the number of transactions in recent days being around 170 units.

analysis by shanghai centaline real estate pointed out that the current consensus between buyers and sellers on transaction prices is not high. it is common for buyers to "bargain" at 10% off, and even 20% off, because it is very common for price negotiations to reach a stalemate. after the new deal, a lot of costs can be saved in the transaction process, and both buyers and sellers will benefit. the losses in house prices can be made up in the transaction, and negotiations will be much smoother.

regarding the "deep decline" in the current round of housing price adjustment, cric research center believes that after nearly three years of housing price adjustment, the rental income of "old and small" properties will be significantly higher than the deposit interest.

"looking at the top 10 active rental and sales sectors in shanghai with the highest content of 'old and small', the average rental and sales ratio of 'old and small' in 2024 is 2%. the pudong world expo sector has the highest rental and sales ratio, reaching 2.4%; putuo caoyang the rent-to-sale ratio of the ganquan yichuan and guangxin sectors as well as the jing’an pengpu sector has all exceeded 2%,” kerui pointed out, “the country has entered an interest rate reduction cycle, with deposit interest rates being lowered in december 2023 and july 2024, and the current yield is the highest. the five-year fixed deposit interest rate is only 1.80%, and landlords’ selling motivation will also be significantly reduced.”