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on october 2, at a real estate sales office in baoshan district, shanghai, citizens learned about housing information through the introduction of staff. image source: visual china

author | yue jiachen

editor | wang weikai

produced | prism·tencent xiaoman studio

this national day, some sales offices are busy.

on the first day of national day, the two major stock exchanges in shanghai and shenzhen were closed. some people who had made money in the stock market began to enter the sales offices to look for new investment opportunities.

people's enthusiasm for buying houses has been ignited by the recent introduction of new policies on the property market. on september 26, a meeting of the political bureau of the central committee emphasized “promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize” and “adjust the housing purchase restriction policy and reduce existing mortgage interest rates.” later, the ministry of housing and urban-rural development stated that it supports first-tier cities in making good use of their autonomy in regulating the real estate market and adjusting housing purchase restriction policies according to city-specific policies.

in just two days, beijing, shanghai, guangzhou, shenzhen and other cities responded quickly.

on september 30, six departments including the beijing municipal commission of housing and urban-rural development jointly issued the "notice on further optimizing and adjusting the city's real estate related policies", announcing a reduction in existing mortgage interest rates, a reduction in the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans, and an increase in housing provident fund loans. policy measures include the intensity of support, reducing the number of years for non-beijing households to pay social security or personal tax when purchasing a house, adjusting the housing purchase restriction policy in tongzhou district, and canceling the standards for ordinary housing and non-ordinary housing.

in the past, there was often a small upsurge in home buying during the national day, but in the past two years, this kind of excitement has been hard to see. nowadays, with the stock market outbreak and the stimulus of the new property market policies, what is the scene like in major real estate projects during this national day?

the marketing manager of a project for sale in beijing bluntly told the author of "prism": "this policy will be the starting point for restoring market confidence."

real estate sales "stayed up all night"

the sound of "egg smashing" sounded one after another. this was a scene i hadn't seen for a long time.

in a sales center in haidian district, beijing, a row of "golden eggs" are neatly placed in the lobby. paying a deposit can earn you a "golden egg", which is a common marketing strategy used by developers. the prizes in the "golden egg" include cash rewards, white goods, etc.

at noon on october 1, the sales office broke open three "golden eggs" in just one hour. paper fireworks and golden eggshells all over the floor recorded the sales scene that day.

that night, a number of real estate developers in beijing announced their "records" in a high-profile manner. among them, poly beijing "succeeded on the first day, with strong sales of 187 million yuan"; china merchants xi visited more than 100 groups of customers in a single day and subscribed for 125 million yuan...

from october 1st to 2nd, the author of "prism" visited a number of properties for sale and intermediary stores in beijing. the agents all said that after the introduction of the new deal, the number of inquiries, views, and transactions at the stores had increased to a certain extent, and the property market significant recovery.

at the china shipping huanyu future sales center, parking at the entrance has become a big problem. in the afternoon of october 1, the parking spaces were already occupied, and the unmarked areas on the roadside were also filled with private cars.

entering the sales office lobby, the property market new deal posters produced overnight have been placed in the most conspicuous position of the sales office. in the visit registration form, in just one hour, there were 11 groups of customers who registered to view the house. people who have not made an appointment in advance need to queue at the door for more than ten minutes to wait for a sales consultant.

a salesperson from china shipping huanyu future told the author that on the night of the new policy release on september 30, some customers came overnight to sign contracts, and the salesperson stayed up almost all night that night.

at the longhu guancui sales center not far away, the scene was equally lively, with almost no empty seats in the negotiation area. a salesperson at the sales office told the author that between 10pm and 12pm on september 30 alone, four groups of customers signed contracts.

"many sales staff took leave early, but many colleagues voluntarily gave up their holidays and are on their way back." the above-mentioned sales staff told the author.

the policy effects are also transmitted to the second-hand housing market.

"some customers who were originally hesitant have now become decisive." an intermediary store agent in shijingshan district, beijing recalled that before the new policy was introduced on september 30, some customers had been hesitant, but after the policy was released that night, this customer the customer didn't negotiate any conditions and signed the contract on the spot.

purchase restriction policies in four major first-tier cities have been adjusted

on the evening of september 30, beijing finally ushered in a new major relaxation of the purchase restriction policy that has been implemented for 13 years.

according to statistics from the centaline real estate research institute, starting from september 2023, beijing has taken small steps and has issued a total of 10 policies in one year.

according to a person in the real estate industry who told the author that on october 1, beijing lianjia sold a total of 380 second-hand houses, twice as many as usual.

from a policy perspective, beijing has made significant optimization and adjustments in terms of purchase restrictions. the social security period requirement for non-beijing families buying houses within the fifth ring road has been reduced from the original period to 3 years, and outside the fifth ring road to 2 years. for high-level and urgently needed talents, the social security period for house purchase has been reduced to one year.

at the same time, beijing also reduced the down payment ratio for personal housing loans. the down payment ratio for the first home has been reduced to 15%, the national uniform lower limit, and the down payment ratio for the second home is no longer differentiated between those inside and outside the fifth ring road, and has been uniformly reduced to 20%.

in this regard, chen wenjing, policy research director of the china index research institute, told the author that the adjustment of the down payment ratio will significantly lower the home purchase threshold for home buyers and effectively promote the release of rigid and improved housing demand. the adjustment of the purchase restriction policy is also expected to have a relatively positive impact on market activity.

at present, the four major first-tier cities in beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen have adjusted their housing purchase restriction policies.

among them, shanghai is the first first-tier city to fully respond to the new tone set by regulators. on the evening of september 29, six departments including the shanghai municipal housing and urban-rural development management committee jointly issued the "notice on further optimizing policies and measures for the city's real estate market", which reduced the social security period for non-local registered households from the previous 3 years to 1 year.

shenzhen has optimized the housing purchase restriction policy by district. among them, shenzhen registered families and singles can purchase an additional house in the suburbs; the social security payment period for non-local registered residents in the central city has been reduced from 3 years to 1 year, and the purchase restriction in the suburbs has been cancelled; in addition, multiple children families can purchase an additional house.

guangzhou has completely lifted housing purchase restrictions. on the evening of september 29, the general office of the guangzhou municipal people's government issued a notice on adjusting measures for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, clearly canceling various purchase restriction policies for households to purchase housing in the city.

in fact, not only beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen, but also xiamen, wuxi, chengdu and other places have recently introduced relevant optimization policies.

chen wenjing said that the centralized implementation of policies in first-tier cities will help to exert the superimposed effect of policies, and overall it will have a more positive effect on stabilizing market expectations and boosting market confidence.

chen wenjing said that with the accelerated implementation of many policies recently, housing prices in core cities are expected to stabilize, and real estate market activity is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. the bottoming and stabilization of core urban markets is also expected to further drive the national real estate market to accelerate its bottoming.

average daily sales volume of new homes doubles 

not only in beijing, but also in shanghai, guangzhou, shenzhen and other places, the property market is also recovering after the new deal.

in shenzhen, after the shenzhen policy was implemented on september 29, many real estate projects for sale received a large number of visitors. according to a report from nanfang.com, all 395 units of ruijingwanju in shenzhen were sold out in half a day in just 8 hours.

in guangzhou, on september 30, many popular real estate projects in guangzhou were very popular. at new world·tianfu yipan in liwan district, the on-site negotiation area was basically full of property viewers.

according to the guangzhou shell new home festival poster released by shell search, the number of subscriptions exceeded 600 on the first day of the golden week.

according to data provided to the author by the china index research institute, from september 24 to 29, 2024, the average daily transaction volume of new homes in beijing increased by 100.9% compared with september 1 to 23.

in shanghai, the average daily transaction volume of new homes from september 24 to 29 also increased by 64.4% compared with september 1 to 23. in addition, guangzhou grew by 76.6% and shenzhen grew by 47.7%.

real estate analyst yan yuejin believes that as various regions continue to optimize real estate purchase restriction policies recently, property market expectations and buying sentiment have generally increased, and activity has shown. it is expected that transaction volume during the national day golden week will record an increase.

yan yuejin said that looking forward to the future, property market transactions will usher in a wave of good conditions in the fourth quarter, and may show a good momentum of "increasing volume and price", and the real estate bull market has begun.

the recovery on the sales side has also made the land market active again. on september 29, a land parcel on linjiang avenue in tianhe district, guangzhou was sold through bidding, attracting three real estate companies including poly development to "join the battle." after five hours of "fierce fighting", poly development finally won the land parcel with a total price of 11.755 billion yuan and a premium rate of 33.4%.

the transaction floor price of this land parcel is approximately 67,000 yuan/square meter, which is the second highest land transaction price in guangzhou and is also the land parcel with the highest total price auctioned in tianhe district.

an owner temporarily increased the price by 350,000 yuan

as the market picks up, "there is a high probability that prices will increase after the national day" is becoming the "unified saying" of many sales staff.

a property sales consultant in the future science city area of ​​changping district, beijing, told the author that on october 1, the price of the property increased by 2%.

in addition, china construction yipin issued a poster stating that from october 8, its projects such as huaxiang no. 1 and yihe mansion will receive a 2% discount; beijing changping new town wutong shanyu will receive a 2% discount...

the new property market policies also affect the mentality of second-hand house owners. “we can’t sell it at the price we used to sell it for,” said an agency store manager in chaoyang district, beijing.

he said that a client was interested in a house, and the price negotiated with the owner was 2.5 million yuan. after the new property market policy was introduced, the owner adjusted the price to 2.85 million yuan overnight, an increase of 14%.

"after the release of the new policy, it is not uncommon for second-hand house sellers to have better expectations for house prices, withdraw the minimum price, and raise the price by two to three hundred thousand yuan overnight. there are also some sellers who have a different mentality even if the listing price has not been adjusted, and they are no longer in a hurry. for sale at a reduced price," said a broker in shijingshan district, beijing.

however, the home-buying sentiment ignited by the new policy has not yet led to a significant increase in housing prices.

"in the new housing market, as developers are eager to sell off properties and collect payments, they are unlikely to increase prices significantly." a beijing-based real estate company insider analyzed the author.

according to a real estate company headquartered in south china, the company is seizing the policy window period and making every effort to promote real estate sales in key projects in key areas.

he said that the currently announced 2% increase can be understood as a marketing tool adopted by developers to promote orders. the increased prices will actually be passed back to the homebuyers in the form of some subsidies.

on october 2, the author of "prism" visited a project for sale in changping district, beijing. the guide price of the project is about 65,000 yuan/square meter. "can you make a decision today?" the on-site real estate consultant urged, and showed the author the actual price of 59,000 yuan per square meter on the calculator.

in the field of second-hand housing, although some owners temporarily increased their prices, many agents told the author that the houses with increased prices have not been sold.

"owners who raise prices are actually unwise. it is still a buyer's market. there are many more people waiting to sell their houses than there are people buying them. raising prices will make it difficult to sell the house." a broker in chaoyang district, beijing told the author so said.

the agent said there is currently no "panic buying" similar to 2016-2017.