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editor's note

the annual national day holiday is not only a consumption feast, but also a lens of economic vitality and a barometer of market confidence. during the long holiday, securities times reporters went deep into the front lines and visited the property market, automobile market, gold, mobile phones, liquor, catering, tourism and other industries, and launched a series of reports on "national day consumption survey" for the benefit of readers.

"there are more people coming to see cars during the national day this year (than in previous years) because we have launched many new models this year and they are all selling well." at the huawei flagship store in shenzhen vientiane world, a staff member told the securities times the reporter said.

the auto market has always been known as the "golden nine and silver ten", and this year's "golden nine and silver ten" has become the stage for car companies to launch a decisive sales battle. the "golden nine" that just passed,bydmonthly sales reached 419,400 vehicles, setting another record high.ideal cardelivery volume was 53,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 48.9%.hongmeng zhixingthe entire series delivered 39,900 new cars, ranking first in the average terminal transaction price of chinese automobile brands for five consecutive months...

however, with the rapid growth in sales of new energy vehicle companies, many 4s stores that mainly focus on fuel vehicles have been hit hard. familybmwthe salesperson of the 4s store told reporters that the storebmw i3the prices of high-volume models such as the 2018 and 3 series are close to the bottom, and stores are almost "selling cars at a loss". they have suffered serious losses this year.

the sales of new energy vehicle companies continue to rise, and many provinces and cities are using "real money" to promote automobile consumption, which is the "a side" of automobile consumption. more than 50% of car dealers have fallen into losses and are facing severe operating conditions, becoming the "b side" of car consumption. how to exert force on "a side" and how to solve the problem of "b side"? securities times reporters visited the front lines of automobile consumption during the national day and interviewed many industry experts to seek answers.

“side a” of the auto market: auto companies, localities, and dealers work together to promote sales

this year's national day has become a critical time for car companies to sprint for sales during the "silver ten" holiday. according to the official poster of hongmeng zhixing, 8,800 units of all hongmeng zhixing models will be ordered on october 1st and 2nd. inzhijie r7in two days, dading exceeded 3,200 units.wenjie m9with a total of 2,500 units, the two models became the main sales force of hongmeng zhixing during the national day.

"there are a lot of people coming to see the cars during the holidays. wenjie m9 and m7 series are popular models in the store. when there are many people, you have to queue up to get on the car." at the huawei flagship store in shenzhen, a salesperson told the reporter said. regarding whether there are car purchase discounts, the salesperson said that hongmeng zhixing’s discount activities are unified across the country. recently,ask the worldthe new m7 has a relatively big discount.

according to reports, the delivery of the wenjie new m7 exceeded 200,000 units within 12 months of its launch. to this end, hongmeng intelligent launched a limited-time car purchase privilege: if you order the wenjie new m7 pro, you can enjoy a car purchase discount of up to 22,000 yuan, and if you order the wenjie new m7 ultra, you can enjoy a car purchase discount of up to 22,000 yuan. you can get car purchase rights of up to 38,800 yuan, and the event will end on october 8. the above-mentioned salesperson said that if you place an order for all models of the wenjie, zhijie and xiangjie models during the national day, you will get a free charging and discharging set worth 1,800 yuan.

according to incomplete statistics from a reporter from securities times, in addition to hongmeng intelligent technology,nio、xiaopeng, lynk & co, buick, cadillac, saic volkswagen and other brands have recently launched limited-time offers or special offers during the national day. car companies have become the "main force" in car promotions during the national day.

in addition, various localities are also sending out "big gift packages" on the policy side, offering real money to encourage car consumption. at a bmw 4s store in nanshan district, shenzhen, a salesperson told reporters: "now there is a nanshan district subsidy for car purchases. the maximum subsidy amount is 12,000 yuan. this is first come, first served."

it is understood that the subsidy mentioned by the above-mentioned salesperson is a sub-consumption promotion activity of the "nanshan good car festival" of the 2024 "nanshan car shopping" organized by the nanshan district commerce bureau. this activity provides subsidies for newly purchased vehicles. the activity lasts from september 15 to december 31, and the total subsidy amount is 100 million yuan. among them, the maximum subsidy amount for each newly purchased vehicle is 12,000 yuan.

pictures of subsidies in nanshan district sent by sales staff to reporters

the consumption promotion activities in nanshan district, shenzhen city are just a microcosm of the encouragement of automobile consumption across the country. at the end of july, the national development and reform commission and the ministry of finance issued "several measures to strengthen support for large-scale equipment updates and trade-in of consumer goods". based on the "implementation rules for car trade-in subsidies", the standard for car scrapping and renewal subsidies was once again raised: trade-in purchases a subsidy of 20,000 yuan is provided for new energy passenger vehicles, and a subsidy of 15,000 yuan is provided for the purchase of fuel passenger vehicles with a displacement of 2.0 liters and below.

subsequently, many provinces and cities responded. according to incomplete statistics, more than 15 provinces and cities, including beijing, tianjin, hubei, shenzhen, and guangzhou, have issued “old-for-new” policies for automobiles. taking longgang district of shenzhen city as an example, as of september 25, longgang district had applied for a subsidy of 85.644 million yuan for car replacement and renewal, boosting car consumption by 1.799 billion yuan, ranking first in the city.

the "gift packages" of various policies to promote automobile consumption often benefit consumers through the channel of automobile dealers. in the wave of promoting automobile consumption, automobile dealers have also contributed important thrust. a staff member of a shenzhen bmw 4s store told reporters that the bmw i3 has recently undergone a significant price cut, with the all-inclusive price dropping from more than 250,000 a month or two ago to just over 210,000. "this price has already been at the end of september, and it may not last long. we adjust it based on market conditions." the staff member said.

overall, a "tripartite joint effort" between car companies, local governments and dealers has been formed to promote automobile consumption. according to data from the china association of automobile manufacturers, from january to august this year, my country's automobile production and sales reached 18.674 million units and 18.766 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% and 3% respectively. with various efforts being made to promote automobile consumption, domestic automobile sales are expected to further increase during the "golden nine and silver ten" periods.

“side b” of the auto market: dealers are suffering from large-scale losses

although from a macro perspective of promoting automobile consumption, car companies and dealers have formed a "joint force." however, from a micro perspective, various car companies and dealers of major car brands are still fighting each other and competing for sales. this means that the booming sales of new energy vehicles will have an impact on the sales of fuel vehicles, and car dealers that mainly focus on fuel vehicles will also be affected.

according to data from the passenger car association, national retail sales of narrowly defined passenger vehicles were 1.905 million units in august. among them, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.027 million units, a year-on-year increase of 43.2%, and the retail penetration rate once again exceeded 50%, reaching 53.9%. there is a sharp contrast between fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles. in august, the national retail sales of traditional fuel vehicles were 878,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 28%.

this means that the automobile market is experiencing "uneven hotness and coldness". a hongmeng zhixing salesperson in shenzhen told reporters: "our sales here should have been growing this year. wenjie has been relatively strong, and the new cars of zhijie and xiangjie are also gaining momentum." a staff member of a bmw 4s store told reporters: "it's very difficult for stores now, especially in july and august when customer traffic is much less. in fact, with the current prices of many models, stores can't make money selling cars, and this year's losses are also quite serious."

wang peng, an associate researcher at the beijing academy of social sciences, said in an interview with a securities times reporter: "in recent years, consumers have become more and more inclined to buy new energy vehicles, which has led to the shrinkage of the fuel vehicle market. the sales channels and marketing methods of new energy vehicles have also changed. different from traditional fuel vehicles, some fuel vehicle dealers who did not transform in time are in trouble. "

according to a survey report released by the china automobile dealers association, the results of 1,164 questionnaires issued to automobile dealers across the country showed that in the first half of 2024, the proportion of dealers suffering losses reached 50.8%, and the proportion of profits was 35.4%. the losses were significantly higher than the previous year. expand. one-third of dealers achieved less than 70% of their sales targets in the first half of the year.

"the deep-rooted contradictions caused by the large-scale losses of dealers are concentrated in the past two years. in response to price wars, car companies have been forced to cut prices and promote promotions, which has led to industry involution, overall sales growth in the domestic auto market has slowed down, and ultimately market pressure has sunk. this is transmitted to dealers, causing sellers to replace producers and become new victims of the fermenting price war," chen jia, an independent international strategy researcher, said in an interview with a reporter from the securities times.

the china automobile dealers association believes that currently, car dealers are experiencing large-scale losses in new car sales, and there are widespread cash flow deficit operations and increasing risks of capital chain rupture, making it difficult to escape the predicament of survival. according to relevant data analysis by experts from the association, the overall discount rate in the domestic new car market in august was 17.4%. from january to august this year, the "price war" has resulted in a total retail loss of 138 billion yuan in the new car market, which has had a great impact on the healthy development of the industry.

wang peng told reporters that the large-scale losses of car dealers are indeed related to the price war, but it is not the only reason. "the price war has led to retail losses in the new car market and compressed dealers' profit margins. but the deeper reason is that dealers have not adapted to market changes in time. some dealers may be too dependent on the sales of fuel vehicles and fail to adjust in time to traditional fuel vehicles and the proportion of new energy vehicles has led to missed opportunities when the new energy market explodes," he said.

how do car dealers get out of the "quagmire"?

"in the past, in the automobile industry, dealers had a situation of 'making money while lying down'. but in the new market environment, dealers need to adjust strategies, including inventory management, sales models, service models, etc., to adapt to market changes." technology zhou di, an expert in the ministry of national science and technology expert database and a technical committee member of the national standards committee, said in an interview with a securities times reporter.

chen jia believes that the vast majority of car dealers still use the indirect marketing model through traditional channels, which cannot keep up with the direct sales model of internet car companies in the digital economy era. the large-scale losses of car dealers have nothing to do with whether they were mainly engaged in fuel vehicles or electric vehicles in the past, but have to do with whether they can keep up with changes in the digital economy, consumer preferences and other changes.

"in addition to the direct sales model of car companies squeezing the traditional 4s store model, online car 'traffic sales' and promotional activities, the fan-attracting effect of internet brands and celebrities, as well as the involution of price wars in online channels, are all in the short term. this puts traditional dealers under high pressure and makes transformation difficult," chen jia said.

wang peng said that in developed countries, automobile sales profits account for about 20% of the overall profits, parts supply profits account for 20%, and profits in the service field account for 60%. this profit model is consistent with the new car sales model of most car dealers in my country. there are significant differences in the sales-based profit model.

"faced with operating pressure, our country's auto dealers may be forced to transform to the model of developed countries. by increasing the proportion of profits in the service field, such as strengthening after-sales services and providing value-added services, dealers can broaden their profit sources and reduce their dependence on new car sales. this transformation not only helps dealers cope with market changes, but also improves customer satisfaction and loyalty and promotes dealers’ long-term development.”

yuan shuai, deputy secretary-general of the zhongguancun internet of things industry alliance, said in an interview with a securities times reporter that in developed countries, the profit structure of car dealers is more diversified. this diversified profit structure helps dealers better resist market risks. , maintain stable profitability.

"as my country's auto market matures and competition intensifies, the profit margins of new car sales may be further compressed. therefore, in order to maintain profitability, auto dealers need to actively expand service areas. at the same time, the government and industry should also strengthen their supervision of distribution the guidance and support of businessmen will promote its transformation to the model of developed countries,” yuan shuai said.