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affected by the downturn in the new housing market, the scale of land transactions in the first three quarters of 2024 further dropped by 20% year-on-year, setting a new low in the scale of national land transactions since 2010. the performance of cities at all levels is basically the same, with both volume and price falling. among them, land transaction volume in first-tier cities fell by more than 30% in the first half of the year.

in terms of market popularity, affected by the reduction in the supply of high-quality land in key cities, popularity will continue to decline in the first three quarters of 2024, with the overall premium rate falling to 4.1%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the same period in 2023.

taking into account the multiple favorable policies on the recent side, and the fact that various regions have strengthened the supply of low-density residential land since the second half of the year, the enthusiasm of real estate companies in obtaining certificates will obviously pick up. driven by the rebound in supply and the maintenance of transaction stability, the popularity of some high-quality land may increase to a certain extent.

1. the volume and price of cities at all levels fell year-on-year, and the scale of first-line transactions fell by 30% year-on-year.

affected by the sluggish property market transactions, the land market remains at a low level. as of september 25, the transaction area of ​​commercial land in the first three quarters was 502 million square meters, down 20% from the same period in 2023, and 4 percentage points larger than the year-on-year decline in the first half of the year; the transaction value was 1.35 trillion yuan, down 36% year-on-year. %, the year-on-year decline expanded by 3 percentage points compared with the first half of the year.in terms of price, due to the implementation of the land supply strategy of "improving quality and reducing quantity" in many key cities, cities such as nanjing and suzhou have supplied a number of low-density and high-quality residential land, causing the average transaction price to increase by 5% from the first half of the year to 2,687 yuan square meter; however, compared with the same period last year, floor prices fell by as much as 20%.

on a monthly basis, affected by the industry downturn, land supply in a considerable number of cities has shrunk significantly. except for a year-on-year increase in transaction size due to the spring festival peak shift in january, the transaction size in the remaining months has declined year-on-year. after entering the second half of the year, as the pressure on local land supply tasks throughout the year further increased, the pace of local land supply accelerated. in august, the scale of land supply exceeded 100 million square meters for the first time, and the transaction volume in the fourth quarter will also increase significantly.

in terms of energy levels, the performance of cities at each energy level is basically the same, with both volume and price falling.first-tier cities experienced the largest decline in land transaction volume, with transaction size decreasing by 32% year-on-year and transaction value decreasing by 39%;third- and fourth-tier cities followed, with a 20% year-on-year decrease in transaction area and a 31% decrease in transaction value. second-tier cities had the smallest decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 19% and 39% in transaction amount and transaction amount, respectively. in terms of price, the average transaction price in first-tier cities dropped the smallest, to 19,625 yuan/square meter. due to the low proportion of high-quality land supply in second- and third-tier cities in the first half of the year, the average transaction price declined year-on-year, especially in second-tier cities. in cities, the average transaction price dropped to 4,707 yuan/square meter, a drop of 25%; third- and fourth-tier cities also saw a 14% year-on-year drop to 1,657 yuan/square meter.

2. each energy levelpremium rateall were below 5%, down year-on-year.

affected by sluggish sales in the new home market and financial pressure, real estate companies' enthusiasm for acquiring land is at a low level. against this background,although the average premium rate in popular cities such as shanghai and hangzhou is still high, the popularity of local auctions in most cities has declined. the overall premium rate in the first three quarters dropped to 4.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first half of the year, and a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the same period in 2023.

looking at cities by energy level, they all fell year-on-year. as the popularity of beijing soil shooting, which is the absolute main force, has dropped significantly,the premium rate in first-tier cities dropped to 4.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 percentage points; the same is true in second-tier cities. the premium rates in major cities such as xi'an and nanjing were 0.4% and 1.5% respectively, which were significantly lower than before. the overall premium rate in second-tier cities 4.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the same period in 2023. the popularity of local auctions in third- and fourth-tier cities is also at a relatively low level. except for a few cities such as yangzhou, huai'an and taizhou, the premium rates in other major third- and fourth-tier cities are mostly below 3%, causing the overall premium rate in third- and fourth-tier cities to drop to 3.7%. a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 percentage points.

3. under the land supply strategy of “low density, small volume, and high frequency”, the phenomenon of unsold sales improved significantly in the third quarter.

judging from the key monitored cities, the land failure rate in the third quarter of 2024 dropped significantly compared with the second quarter, falling by 6 percentage points and returning to a relatively low level of around 12%. in terms of monthly performance, the unsold auction rate was slightly higher in july, reaching 14.9%. in august and september, due to the entry of a large number of low-density and high-quality residential land into the market, the unsold auction rate dropped significantly. especially in september, the unsold auction rate dropped to less than 10%. .

the intensification of failed auctions is mainly due to the continued financial pressure on real estate companies. except for a few key cities such as shanghai, hangzhou, chengdu, and luzhou, where high-quality land real estate companies are more active in bidding, the rest of the cities are mainly based on low-price transactions.in addition, there have been many failed auctions of residential land in cities such as guangzhou, taiyuan, and nanchang. taking guangzhou as an example, there were as many as 14 failed auctions in the first eight months, and only 27 lots were sold, with the failed auction rate as high as 34%. ; if commercial land parcels are further excluded, the unsold rate is as high as 50% (10 cases were sold and 10 were unsold). even in hangzhou, where the market has always been highly popular, there were three failed auctions of residential land parcels in the first half of the year, including one case of voluntary withdrawal and two failed bids. industry confidence is still at a low level.

also,the land market in third- and fourth-tier cities is still in the cold winter, and the phenomenon of unsold land is still serious.. looking at specific cities, zhanjiang, luoyang, zhaoqing, huai'an and other places have seen a number of unsold land parcels, with the unsold rate for residential land exceeding 30%. taking zhanjiang as an example, in the first eight months, only 5 residential land-related transactions were completed, and 11 residential land parcels were unsold, with the unsold rate as high as 69%. most of the unsold plots are located in small-scale plots in remote counties and cities such as leizhou city, suixi county, xuwen county, etc.floor pricemost of them are less than 1,000 yuan/square meter, and the total starting price is usually less than 200 million yuan. due to the sluggish performance of the overall property market, weak new home transactions, and the current liquidity pressure of most real estate companies, the focus of land acquisition is more concentrated on cities with lower divestment risks. the cold land market in these cities is also expected.

industry confidence is still low, and cities are becoming more cautious in land supply. the scale of land transactions in most cities in the first three quarters has dropped significantly compared with the same period last year.looking at key monitored cities, in the first three quarters of 2024, only one city in xi'an had a transaction area of ​​more than 10 million square meters, 2 fewer than the same period in 2023. in terms of transaction value, only one city in beijing exceeds 100 billion yuan, which is 2 fewer than the same period in 2023.

in addition to beijing, hangzhou, shanghai and xi'an also exceeded 50 billion yuan, ranking 2-4 respectively in terms of transaction value. the next city is chengdu, with a transaction volume of 43 billion yuan in the first three quarters. the total transaction value of the top5 cities reached 384.7 billion yuan, accounting for 29% of the total land transaction value in the country.land investment is further concentrated in high-energy cities.

looking at cities by energy level, with the exception of shenzhen, first-tier cities in beijing, shanghai and guangzhou all entered the top 20 list of transaction amounts., ranked 1st, 3rd and 7th respectively; among the second and third tier cities on the list, 7 cities in the yangtze river delta were on the list, one more than in the first half of the year. in terms of market popularity, the popularity of local auctions in the yangtze river delta region is still relatively high. among them, the average premium rate in cities such as shanghai, hangzhou, and hefei remained above 7% in the first three quarters, with the average premium rate in hangzhou reaching 9.4%. ranked first among the top20 cities in terms of transaction value. also,the premium rates in cities such as chengdu, fuzhou, xiamen, and changsha have also reached more than 5%, and market popularity is also at a relatively high level.however, compared with the first half of the year, the market popularity in chengdu, nanjing, ningbo, changsha, and wuhan has declined slightly.

in the third quarter, corporate investment intensity and willingness did not pick up significantly. affected by the dual factors of sluggish market sales and pressure on cash flow, the investment scale of the top 100 companies still fell by nearly 40%.in addition, while investment is focusing on high-energy cities, companies have increasingly stringent requirements for land plots. high-quality land plots in core cities can still attract the attention of enterprises and even acquire land at a premium. most land plots in sub-cores, suburbs and other areas with relatively average locations are mostly being in a situation where no one cares.

1. the amount of land acquisition continued to be low in the third quarter, with a year-on-year decrease of nearly 50%.

the investment scale of real estate companies has continued to decline since 2020. after falling off a cliff in 2022, there is no sign of stabilization.

judging from the total number of new land reserves among the top 100, the value, amount, and area of ​​land acquired have all declined for three consecutive years.from january to september, the total value, total price and construction area of ​​the top 100 were 1,348.4 billion yuan, 626.3 billion yuan and 65.9 million square meters respectively, down 41%, 42% and 28% respectively year-on-year. the year-on-year decline in total reserves is still expanding. this shows that corporate investment has become increasingly cautious, and corporate investment intensity has dropped again and again.

2. the land-to-sales ratio is as low as 0.15, and corporate investment willingness has still not improved.

judging from the land acquisition to sales ratio, it will remain at a low level of around 0.15 in 2024, which is a significant decline compared with around 0.2 at the end of the third quarter and the end of the fourth quarter last year, once again confirming that the investment willingness of the top 100 real estate companies in sales is currently low.

looking at the different echelons, the land acquisition-to-sales ratio of the top 21-30 real estate companies rose to 0.2, the land acquisition-to-sales ratio of the top 11-20 real estate companies dropped to 0.06, and the land acquisition-to-sales ratio of the top ten real estate companies remained stable at 0.19.

the land acquisition-to-sales ratio of the bottom 50 real estate companies increased from 0.13 at the end of august to 0.16, mainly due to the acquisition of land by companies such as china construction jiuhe and china construction xinhe.

concentration remains high and the market structure becomes increasingly stable. the top ten real estate companies accounted for 56% of the new value, the top 11-20 accounted for 8%, the top 21-30 accounted for 12%, and the top 30 real estate companies together accounted for more than 70% of the new value.

3. only 50% of the top 100 sales companies continued to acquire land in the first nine months, and more than half of the investment amounts fell year-on-year.

as of the end of the third quarter, the investment amount of the top 100 sales (full scale) was approximately 440 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45%. among them, nearly 50% of real estate companies have suspended investment since 2024.

among the companies that had acquired land in the first nine months, nearly 53% had a year-on-year decrease in investment, and 36% of companies had a decrease of more than 50%, mainly leading central and state-owned enterprises, such as china resources, china shipping, china merchants, etc. among private enterprises, the investment volume of longfor and binjiang, which are still acquiring land, fell by 69% and 50% year-on-year respectively. it can be seen that as sales weaken and land supply slows down, the pace of large-scale central state-owned enterprise investment is also slowing down.

it is worth noting that the investment amount of enterprises such as china construction yipin, urban construction development, and guomao real estate has increased significantly compared with last year. on the one hand, it is due to the low base in 2023, and on the other hand, thesethe investment layout of enterprises is mainly concentrated in core cities with higher total prices such as shanghai, beijing, guangzhou, and xiamen.

as of september 25, the transaction volume of commercial land in 300 cities across the country was 502 million square meters, a 20% decrease from the same period in 2023, and once again set a historical low for the same period. in terms of popularity, due to the continued sluggish performance of the property market, the cash flow of real estate companies has not been significantly improved, and the investment enthusiasm of real estate companies has been severely dampened. against this background, the overall market enthusiasm has declined again, and the overall premium rate in the first half of the year dropped to 4.1%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the same period in 2023.

on the land supply side, local governments have made numerous positive adjustments, and various policies, indicators, and technical control measures have basically been put in place. the current sluggishness of the land market is mainly due to the slow depletion of the new housing market. faced with the overall shrinkage and downgrade of new home transaction scale, the current inventory depletion cycle in many cities has doubled.until the market finds a new balance between supply and demand, it will be difficult to maintain a low unsold rate and continuity of land transactions.it is expected that the transaction level of the land market will remain low for a long time, and transactions at low prices should still be the main theme of the land market in the medium term.

however, taking into account the multiple positive policies on the recent side, and the fact that various regions have strengthened the supply of low-density residential land since the second half of the year, the enthusiasm of real estate companies in obtaining certificates will obviously pick up. driven by the rebound in supply and the stabilization of transactions,the popularity of some high-quality land may increase to a certain extent.

at the end of september, the continued loosening of property market policies and the high-priced transactions of high-quality residential land in core cities such as guangzhou and suzhou played a certain role in boosting market expectations. when the effects of property market policies show up, sales performance improves, and the heat of the property market is transmitted to the land market, the willingness of enterprises to invest in land may pick up.

however, it is worth noting that when the era of market growth becomes history, the past phenomenon of actively expanding land acquisition and obtaining land appreciation benefits will be difficult to reproduce. although leading real estate companies and state-owned enterprises with financial strength continue to replenish high-quality land resources at low levels, these real estate companies place more emphasis on "selecting the best from the best" when acquiring land, and pay more attention to profit indicators rather than scale indicators in investment research and judgment. at present, low-density, small-volume plots are more favored by real estate companies.

when overall investment willingness picks up in the future, real estate investment companies will also need to find their own advantageous project types and make more precise investments.