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the sudden big market situation has changed everyone's life: in the guomao area of ​​beijing, where i do my daily activities, the number of white-collar workers visiting shopping malls during lunch break has increased significantly, and most of them have smiles on their faces. i was eating at a japanese ramen shop at noon, and the two girls at the next table kept discussing: should we go to hokkaido for the spring festival next year, or somewhere with a more festive atmosphere?

from beginning to end, they did not talk about the budget issue. they were mainly struggling with their lack of annual leave time. they were obviously one of the direct or indirect beneficiaries of this market situation. after eating ramen, i walked through a circle of nearby cafes (the most important thing in china world trade center is cafes) and saw a large number of white-collar workers sitting on tables and typing away at laptop keyboards. almost all the laptop screens showed stock trading software. interface!

many people in my circle of friends have discussed: why did most people (including institutional investors) completely miss the start-up stage of this market? in fact, this is a false proposition, because the initial stage of large-scale market trends in the a-share market (whether rebound or reversal) is designed to make people miss it. this has been the case in the past and will continue to be the case in the future.

compared with the stock markets in developed countries, the a-share market has two distinctive characteristics:rapid rise and slow fall, bullish short and bearish long.at the bottom of the stage, it always tends to pull up quickly in just a few days or weeks, making it impossible for most people to get on the bus on time; while at the top of the stage, it always grinds and chirps, looking back three times a step. , giving most people the illusion that "you can add positions now." the factors causing the above phenomenon are complex and related to the high proportion of retail investors and the lack of short-selling tools, but that is not the whole reason.

at the same time, hong kong stocks and chinese concept stocks have experienced even more violent rises because they are not subject to price limits. this reflects the "a-shareization" of hong kong stocks to a certain extent, but it is also supported by fundamentals: compared with a-shares, hong kong stocks and chinese concept stocks have not only reaped the dividends of domestic economic stimulus, but also benefited from the federal reserve to a greater extent. the interest rate cut dividend is also the so-called "double dividend". from a valuation perspective, hong kong stocks at the bottom seem to be more attractive than a-shares, and it is not incomprehensible that there will be a more violent rebound.

after a violent increase of more than 20%, millions of new investors are still queuing up to enter the market; for them, the bull market has just begun. in fact, isn’t this the case for institutions? there are only two types of people who can accurately add positions before the surge begins: the snowball stock god and the xiaohongshu stock god.

when the national day is over and everyone returns to the office listlessly, the extreme optimism will inevitably give way to a slightly calmer thinking (although not necessarily so calm). so, what new key factors will emerge after the national day? this will directly determine the nature of this market - whether it will rebound or reverse, whether it will reappear in 2014/2015 or in 2023, and whether it will create a "wealth effect" or a negative wealth effect.

here’s my opinion. my securities industry license has expired, and i will no longer pay the cfa annual fee starting from 2020, so i can no longer provide any professional advice. what i express is only my personal opinion. i think that after the national day, whether it is the a-share market, the hong kong stock market, or the chinese concept stock market, special attention will be paid to the following three aspects of information:

the international situation, especially sino-us relations.

real estate industry data.

policy guidance for finance, internet and other industries.

let’s talk about the first one first. the current international situation may be the most chaotic period since the end of the cold war, and sino-us relations are the most important bilateral relations in the world.

the capital market has accepted that china and the united states cannot return to the "honeymoon period" and can accept the constant occurrence of minor frictions and quarrels. however, the key is that there should be no substantial deterioration, especially the risk of all-out confrontation. from an economic perspective, given that china's current trade surplus as a proportion of gdp has reached a record high, and the united states is still china's largest export destination (because the eu and asean are not one country), the economic significance of improving sino-us relations is of course it is also self-evident.

what is gratifying is that the current sino-us relations seem to be in a stable period, the communication channels between the two parties are relatively smooth, and there are no new uncontrollable factors. the u.s. congress is still brewing (and passing) new china bills, but the market is already not surprised, not to mention that these bills do not significantly exceed the scope of previously existing bills.

the biggest disturbing factor may be the result of the u.s. election: there is only more than a month left, and no matter who wins the election, it will bring huge uncertainty in diplomacy and foreign trade.

let’s talk about the second one. the two basic purposes of this economic stimulus are to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumption. boosting consumption is a long-term task and cannot produce immediate results; stabilizing the real estate market can produce immediate results. as the saying goes, "golden nine and silver ten", these two months are supposed to be the best months for the property market, so after the national day, everyone should pay special attention to property prices and property market transaction data. these data don’t even need to wait for the official announcement. after all, everyone has an idea of ​​the property market situation in their own community, city, and even province.

if the property market can be stabilized or even have a small rebound, even if it does not encourage more people to buy houses and buy cars (to be honest, this is a difficult task), it can still create a wave of wealth effects: because the value of the house in your hand increases, homeowners will feel rich and will increase consumption, which is the same as the wealth effect during a stock market rise. as for the reduction in existing mortgage interest rates, it has actually increased the resources that homeowners have for consumption. although the impact of this increase is also limited due to the limited extent of the reduction.

according to my observation, none of my friends in first- and second-tier cities have much hope for the various real estate market policy adjustments in the past year or so, and they don’t even bother to pretend to care. this adjustment has had a certain effect, and friends are beginning to be dubious, although many of them still declare, "if the property market rebounds, i will sell my house and leave."

objectively speaking, this is a good thing, because everyone's expectations are low enough, and it is easy to exceed them. assuming that after the national day, there are clear signs that housing prices in first- and second-tier cities have rebounded slightly, and housing prices in third- and lower-tier cities have stabilized, then it is more likely that this market will continue to be "magnificent".

let’s talk about the third one. the statement that "the financial industry is the most important weapon of the country" has been widely spread in the circle of friends. in the internet industry, everyone is also looking forward to iconic events such as ant group's resumption of listing and didi's re-ipo in hong kong. these events will happen sooner or later, but as long as they don't happen for a day, the market will always be worried. in the education and training industry, we can clearly feel that there are signs of loosening restrictions this year, but after all, it is not a comprehensive and clear loosening of restrictions.

in some other industries, expectations for policy easing are also common; since i am not familiar with those industries, i will not elaborate here. if the above expectations are fulfilled, even if only partially and slowly, market sentiment will be fully boosted and a positive feedback loop will be formed.

in all walks of life, the primary attitude of the competent authorities is to "protect growth" and "protect enterprises", which has been confirmed by the market. however, "maintaining growth" and "protecting enterprises" are only action guidelines, which need to be refined within the industry and become executable measures. my personal point of view is that for industries such as the financial industry, which are highly regulated and dominated by state-owned assets, there will be no particularly drastic policy easing; but for industries such as the internet, education and training, where private capital accounts for the majority and has a pan-consumption flavor, we can indeed expect more policy easing. as for what exactly? when will it appear? that will be one of the issues that the market will pay special attention to after the national day.

having said that, although the stock prices of internet concept stocks have generally risen sharply, my friends in major internet companies are generally in a neutral to pessimistic state. the options in their hands have increased in value, but they almost all believe that this is only caused by market sentiment rather than changes in fundamentals.

one of the friends said: "reducing costs and increasing efficiency is still the main operating policy of all major manufacturers. what real bull market can there be under such circumstances?" this view may not be correct, because the logic of the capital market is different from that of industry practitioners. the logic is different. however, it can also be considered conversely: assuming that the business policies of major internet companies change from cost reduction and efficiency improvement to expansion in new directions, then the next stage of the bull market can be truly established. this is what will happen in the u.s. technology industry in 2023 - the sudden rise of generative ai has caused major silicon valley companies to move from layoffs to growth again, prompting u.s. stocks to hit record highs.

unfortunately, such a thing is unlikely to happen again in internet concept stocks. they cannot single-handedly transform the entire chinese economy; on the contrary, they need to rely on the economy itself to bottom out before they can achieve the next stage of growth on this basis. at least at this stage, macroeconomic data (especially property market data) is more important than the internet industry and the operating data of major companies; the world situation, especially sino-us relations, is the most important factor.