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on october 1, the third-party research institution zhongzhi research institute released the "100 cities price index report". the report shows that current owners are exchanging price for volume, causing the price of second-hand housing in 100 cities to continue to decline. the scale of second-hand housing transactions has declined month-on-month, but still maintains year-on-year growth. ; the new home market was affected by the entry of high-quality improvement projects in some cities. the prices of new homes in 100 cities increased month-on-month. however, the new home market transactions continued to weaken. in september, new home sales in major cities fell year-on-year.

according to monitoring data from the china index research institute, in september, the average price of second-hand housing in 100 cities was 14,447 yuan/square meter, down 0.70% month-on-month and falling for 29 consecutive months; down 7.13% year-on-year. the average price of new residential buildings in 100 cities was 16,484 yuan/square meter, an increase of 0.14% month-on-month and 1.85% year-on-year.

judging from the number of cities with rising and falling housing prices, according to the 100-city price index of the china real estate index system, the number of cities with second-hand housing prices in 100 cities falling month-on-month in september was 100. it has been a collective decline for 100 cities for 6 consecutive months.

in september, the number of cities in 100 cities with a month-on-month decrease in new residential prices was 63, an increase of 17 from august; the number of cities with a month-on-month increase was 17, a decrease of 18 from august. among them, the price of new residential buildings in shanghai, chengdu, and yantai increased by 1.26%, 0.67%, and 0.55% month-on-month respectively; the month-on-month price increases of new residential buildings in five cities including jinhua and hangzhou were all between 0.1% (inclusive) and 0.3%; taizhou, jiangyin the month-on-month increase in new home prices in nine other cities was within 0.1%. in september, prices in 20 cities including zhangjiagang and wuhu remained unchanged month-on-month.

looking at the first three quarters of this year, according to the 100-city price index of the china real estate index system, the price of second-hand housing in 100 cities fell by 5.67% cumulatively, a decline that expanded by 3.65 percentage points compared with the same period in 2023. among them, the first, second and third quarters fell by 1.48% and 1.48% respectively. 2.16%, 2.13%.

affected by the entry of improved properties into the market, in the first three quarters of 2024, the price of new residential buildings in 100 cities has structurally increased by a cumulative 1.63%. in order to accelerate performance and stabilize market confidence, many urban projects under poly development have recently announced "guaranteed price plans". if the sales discount of similar houses in the future is lower than the current discount, the buyer can check out without any reason.

specifically, in terms of second-hand housing, in the first three quarters of 2024, the cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices in all echelon cities increased compared with the same period in 2023. among them, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities have fallen by 5.78% cumulatively, a decline that is 5.72 percentage points larger than the same period in 2023; since the second quarter, second-hand housing prices in beijing and shanghai have exceeded the average level of 100 cities on a monthly basis. the price of second-hand housing in second-tier cities fell by 5.77% cumulatively, a decline that was 3.50 percentage points higher than the same period in 2023; the prices in third- and fourth-tier representative cities dropped by 5.51% cumulatively, a decline that was 3.01 percentage points larger than the same period in 2023. the cumulative decline in changzhou and yangzhou exceeded 10%.

in terms of new housing, in the first three quarters of 2024, the price of new housing in first-tier cities increased by 3.56% cumulatively, and the price of new housing in shanghai increased by 6.18% cumulatively, ranking first among the top 100 cities. since the beginning of this year, a number of high-priced projects in shanghai, such as china overseas shunchang jiuli, binjiang arc de triomphe, qiantan residence and other real estate properties, have been on the market and have been selling well. shanghai's high-end improvement market has performed well, causing a structural boost to the city's average price. the price of new residential buildings in second-tier cities increased by 1.12% cumulatively, while that in third-tier and fourth-tier representative cities fell by 0.05% cumulatively.

a report from the china index research institute pointed out that in the third quarter of 2024, the national real estate policy will continue to maintain a loose tone. at the end of september, the central government’s major policies were introduced one after another, which effectively boosted market confidence. overall, the meeting of the political bureau of the central committee first mentioned "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", releasing the strongest signal to date to "stabilize real estate". various property market policies are expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. on the demand side, there is still room for optimization of the purchase restriction policies in beijing, shanghai, and shenzhen; in addition, various localities are expected to continue to increase home purchase subsidies or reduce the pressure on residents to purchase homes by lowering mortgage interest rates, reducing the down payment ratio for second homes, and reducing transaction taxes and transaction commissions. . on the supply side, relevant policies such as the purchase and storage of state-owned enterprises and the revitalization of existing land may continue to be improved. according to past experience, after intensive policies are implemented, the market will usher in a certain recovery. sales in core cities can be expected to improve in october, which will lead to marginal improvements in the market in the fourth quarter. however, considering that it will take some time for medium- and long-term factors such as residents’ income and employment to change, it is expected that the market will continue to bottom out in the short term.